[ST London]

Markets’ 2026 watch list: Fed succession, political risk and AI of course

Summary
Analysts see risks from US midterms and rate cuts
Stock markets to rise, albeit at slower pace than in 2025
Borrowing costs in key markets to remain high
Dollar expected to fall, yen to strengthen

Reuters

[Mtl JP]

yap yap yap yap

Bank of Japan chief vows to keep raising interest rates
Reuters January 5, 2026 · 2:07 AM EST · 17 hours ago

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts.

[GVI Forex 2]

Watch Out for a New Year Whipsaw Market

 

 

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN rocking at 156.70
as we go into Asia session

trade views on this pair appreciated
tia

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Bounce from above 25L has given hope for the bulls that still face obstacles at 25596 and 25714 ahead of key 25842 resistance.
• Now dependent on 25260 holding to keep a bid focused higher and away from 25K.
• How this and other markets close the week may be more important than how they start out.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap

Equities up, Treasuries up, Dollar down, Gold up

(Right click on any mage (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Good start but one day does not make a trend at this time of the year.
• Depends now whether the current rally can take out the re4cord 6943 high.
• In any case, 6900 is back as a pivotal level.
• Supports 6861 keeps a bid while above it.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

CNBC scream
“Dow surges 800 points as market rally following U.S.-Venezuela action”
By Liz Napolitano, Fred Imbert

hahaha what gutless bunch, Liz n Fred

[Mtl JP]

USDCNY 6.9841 as I type
–
not a pair I trade, but technically I suppose there is some importance to 7.0 price level
namely that it is hinting at higher. when …. is a Qtn atm

[Mtl JP]

BTC and YEN are savvaging the USD today
which, otherwise, is uP against some majors

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.17195

interesting … that is all from me for now

[Mtl JP]

GBPUSD 1.3533 as I type, HoD 1.3539

the angle of the price action from 1.3428-ish to the HoD
by normal standards of stats is begging for a T/P pullback
ps caveat: no guarantee

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1711 as I type

next Qtn is about 1.1710/00 holding Sup

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• As noted over the weekend, the breakout above 90K out put into a buy on dips mode with 92=95K a potential target resistance zone.
• The move into this zone gives it a bid if 92K can become support.
• A break of 95K would pit 98-100K on the radar.

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[Mtl JP]

1.1719 … like a slow ripping off a bandage

to the brave go rewards (heros usually die)

[Mtl JP]

As I said earlier …
GBPUSD needs to pop N of 1.3550-ish and hold it for me to get involved.
In the meantime it is screwing with eurdlr 1.1720

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Trend: Up while above 4395 and the trendline
• Target: Record 4549 high
• However, no key resistance until the record high so use the latest high (e.g. 4455) as resistance.
• Buy on dips mode while above 4395

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

First real day of the new year not disappointing with some whipsaw price action, especially on forex.

• Forex: USD mixed on the day but on the defensive and well off its highs as GBPUSD takes the lead while EURUSD follows with a lag (note weaker EURGBP but above key support at 8655). GBPUSD pivoting 1.35, key resistance 1.3536. USDJPY trading an outside day.
• US Stocks (Risk On): Trading firmer with US500 and NAS100 targets/obstacles cited earlier (scroll below).
• XAUUSD: Buy on dips suggestion working out and trading with a bid while above 4400
• BTCUSD: Extending its breakout into a 92-95K zone.

[Mtl JP]

Unless gbpusd goes massively over 1.3550
eurdlr 1.172-ish is a sell

with sl, naturally

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1704

all eyes of hungry wolves and nervous nellies on 1.1720-ish

[Mtl JP]

Now that ISM is poof!, probably only some sort of geo-political tumult suddenly appearing might be “safe” haven driver for a bit higher dollar.

data-wise things looks rather bear till friday (NFP)

[Mtl JP]

which reminds of Jay’s oft-repeated reminder of what FX is about (hunting stops)

IF you are interested in what / why hunting stops in forex is, suggest a simple internet search on the concept

[Mtl JP]

or the next stop hunt price point level 1.1720/25 ?

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1697

Qtn now is … where will be the day’s top

[GVI Forex 2]

Trader Alert

Conspiracy theory says President Trump will announce the new Fed Chair this week to distract attention from any Venezuela backlash.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Trying to build up momentum after holding off a run at 25K but faces obstacles at 25596 and 25714 ahead of the elusive 25842 resistance.
• Otherwise, it is support on dips while above 25260 but needing to break 25596 to confirm a shift in momentum to the upside.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

Man ISM 47.9 vs. 48.3 expected

not only is it declined, reading under 50 is baaad

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI MFG miss

(Right click on any mage (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Starting the year with a bid although it is still too early to draw conclusions.
• Much will depend whether the current rally can take out the re4cord 6943 high.
• In any case, 6900 is back as a pivotal level.
• Supports 6892 (former resistance) and 6861.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 50 DAY MVA 1.1637 = BLUE LINE

(Note the mva #may vary between brokers but in any case it is below the current market).

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