[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3918
–
expects. expect is not “does” or “will”

Prime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and trade
Prime Minister of Canada
January 16, 2026, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap 2

(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap 1

(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

Essentially more , rather than less, like bowman’s view

January 16, 2026 Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Implementation
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson

optimistic, but fragile

[Mtl JP]

The unfortunate thing about the US 10-yr yield is that
DLRx , at 3:38 PM EST, is at 99.37
i.e giving the dollar a lift

maybe things will change once the three day respit passes without something crazy causing players to run more into dlr for “safe haven”

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year bond yield (above 4.20%)

[Mtl JP]

Another plum from FT

“Greenland is a sovereign part of a sovereign country that is part of the EU. That shouldn’t be messed around [with],” Lescure – French Finance Minister – to Scott Bessent

[Mtl JP]

How about another comical line:
–
https://www.ft.com/
“Economists throw down a challenge to UK banks: prove us wrong”
14 hours ago – It’s a lonely time to be a crusader for tougher regulations of lenders, at least outside of Switzerland

call comes amid growing scrutiny over the Bank of England’s recent decision to loosen capital rules, which critics argue undermines financial stability.

[Mtl JP]

Oil – ahead of the 3-day week-end:

Brent UP more than 1% at 64.51
WTI uP 1% at $59.89

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

Stop run below 4569 so far not following through (low 4537) but would need to regain 4600 to negate the risk.

Why 4600?

• The 4600 level has traded in each of the past 5 days so looking ahead, if this pattern is broken on Monday it would be a bearish indicator although the market has preempted it already by running stops below 4569.
• If 4600 trades, then the pattern continues but in a wider 4537-4642 range.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

Rtrs January 16, 2026
–
Germany to offer up to $7,000 electric vehicle subsidy, Bild reports

BERLIN, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Germany will offer families with small and medium incomes subsidies of up to $7,000 to buy new electric cars … German carmakers are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles, experiencing significantly lower demand than initially expected. … “The funds are sufficient for an estimated 800,000 vehicles over the next three to four years,” Environment Minister Carsten Schneider was quoted …/.

I could not make this up .
So here is my standard Q: Is there a trade / what: ___ ?

[Mtl JP]

geo-political trade theme
–
Rtrs
Canada, China slash EV, canola tariffs in reset of ties
By Maria Cheng, January 16, 2026

Summary
Canada to allow Chinese EV imports at 6.1% tariff, Carney says
Says Canada expects China to lower canola tariff
Canada welcomes further Chinese investment

until president trump takes notice and (maybe) issue

[Mtl JP]

Fed’s jefferson who also – like bowman – yaks on the topic of “policy” yaks only near close of market at 15:30

[Mtl JP]

Here is a comedy show with the theme :
Big boys/girls, Big “investments”, Big Losses

“Amazon threatens ‘drastic’ action after Saks bankruptcy, says $475M stake is now worthless” – cnbc

and da big winners: lawyers ?

nevermind who were/are the geniuses behind the original investment idea

[Mtl JP]

GVI 3:55 pm – imo good explainer

‘Markets are callous’: Why stocks aren’t fazed by Iran, Greenland or Venezuela
– by Chloe Taylor and Lee Ying Shan on CNBC

Key Points

* 2026 has seen the Trump administration overthrow Venezuela’s Maduro regime, threaten force against Iran, and talk up annexing Greenland, potentially by force.
* Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, equity markets have continued to rise.
* Investors spoke to CNBC about why markets are shrugging off the headlines — and what it might take to make them react.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

Current range is 25253-25876

Two scenarios with bulls hoping #1 works out:

1. If 25253 becomes support and is followed by higher lows (red lines) to would indicate momentum building for a run at the high.
2. On the other hand, if blue lines (lower highs) stay intact and 25253 fails to hold, it would indicate a near-term top and open the door for a run at 25000 or beyond.
3. Otherwise, just consolidation.
4. Bulls unlikely to give up the fight unless forced to

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

yak yak yak
–
“Absent a clear and sustained improvement in labor market conditions, we should remain ready to adjust policy to bring it closer to neutral,” Bowman

[Mtl JP]

bowman yaks now

[Mtl JP]

yak deck today
–
collins, bowman and jefferson

bowman and jefferson yak on policy

[GVI Forex 2]

 

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Stocks slipping on prospects of Fed staying independent following Trump’s response that about ruled out Hassett as the next Fed Chair.
• Current range is 6887-6997.
• Bulls hope it goes one way:
• If 6887 becomes support with higher lows (red lines) it would build momentum for an eventual run at the high and 7000
• On the other hand, if blue lines (lower highs) stay intact and 6887 cracks, it would indicate a near-term top and increase the risk of a retracement.
• Otherwise,  it is just a consolidation range.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

odds are 200day holds S
lest these are famous last words

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1592 200day 1.1582

lod 1.1584 sofar

[GVI Forex 2]

Polymarket odds for next Fed Chair

Warsh 57%
Hassett 17%

[GVI Forex 2]

Breaking News: USD pops higher, Gold dips on prospects for Fed keeping independence as Warsh seen as the frontrunner for Fed Chair

(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 16 January 10am New York cut

The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 mark. It’s not the largest of expiries on the board for today but it is a decent-sized one at least. That could help to keep price action a bit stickier close to the figure level in the session ahead. However, an extension to the daily range could see price look for a downside test of its 200-day moving average at 1.1582. So, just be mindful of that.

A break under the key technical level above could pave the way for a shove towards a test of 1.1500 next. That as sellers remain in near-term control of the currency pair.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1 H

Now this is a situation intraday:

Based on behavioural pattern , if EUR manages to stay above 1.16150 in next 30 min it would be possible to reach up to 1.16300 Daily resistance and then down again…

But if it loses 1.16100 in this hour, we’ll be watching a test of previous low pretty soon.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances: 1.16300, 1.16500 & 1.16650

Supports: 1.16000, 1.15900 & 1.15550

Now the picture is clear – Pressure is down and target is 1.15250

What is indicative ( and speculative) is the fact that EMA 50 is turning down…so opens a possibility of break of that up trendline at 1.15250 in several days… or it might hold on the first attempt, just to give it up later on…

 

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1613 (as I type)
–
currently trapped between 1.16 and 1.1620
one could think “consolidating”

nothing of any potential significance on todays Econ Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Is an Iran strike still on the table?

(Right click on image or any chart to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

(Right click on image or any chart to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Author]

Posts