[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Starting the year with a bid although it is still too early to draw conclusions.
• Much will depend whether the current rally can take out the re4cord 6943 high.
• In any case, 6900 is back as a pivotal level.
• Supports 6892 (former resistance) and 6861.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 50 DAY MVA 1.1637 = BLUE LINE

(Note the mva #may vary between brokers but in any case it is below the current market).

[Mtl JP]

… “US captured Venezuela’s President Maduro and his wife” …

but … the whole old apparatus is , so-far, untouched.
I suppose the key is and will be IF the apparatus simple changes uniform and goes happily along
OR if things go bonkers violent for a while.

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM Manufacturing PMI due at 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST) in a data starved market.

See our Economic Data Calendar for consensus forecasts

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Futures Rise, Oil Companies Soar

US stock futures traded higher on Monday at the start of the first full week of the year.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, Nasdaq futures gained 0.7%, and Dow Jones futures advanced by nearly 60 points.

Energy stocks surged in premarket trading after the US captured Venezuela’s President Maduro and his wife over the weekend, while President Trump floated plans for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s oil industry.

Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to a busy week of US economic data, highlighted by the December jobs report due Friday.

SPX 500 Chart

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Hits the new High

DAX recorded strong gains on Monday to touch an all-time high. The rally was led by gains in defense stocks amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Aerospace business Rheinmetall topped with gains of close to 7 percent. Siemens Energy followed with gains of 4.4 percent. Infineon Technologies also added 2.2 percent.

[GVI Forex 2]

USD moving up, no specific news, USDJPY holding above 156.50, GBPUSD losing its cross bid after EURGBP steadied, EURUSD extending its slide (see if 1.1650 proves pivotal with next key support at 1.1614), XAUUSD backing off its high towards 4404. Test for USD will come after the ISM PMI.

Otherwise, typical start of the year erratic price action as liquidity starts to rebuild..

[Belgrade Bobby]

Why Trump’s Venezuela Move Is Pressuring Oil and Gas Prices

Financial markets reacted to the development as trading opened today, with energy prices moving lower. The Kobeissi Letter noted that natural gas declined by roughly 6% within 15 minutes after futures trading opened. Furthermore, oil slipped below $57 per barrel, hovering near levels last seen in 2021.

Typically, major geopolitical escalations involving oil-producing nations have led to higher energy prices. Nonetheless, this time, markets appear to be reacting differently. The shift is linked to expectations surrounding Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s vast oil and gas reserves.

The Liquidity Rotation Hypothesis

The US’s control of Venezuela’s energy sector could lead to a further increase in supply, pushing oil and natural gas prices even lower.

[GVI Forex 2]

Venezuela crude oil:

I just heard a mews commentator say if investment in Vene3zuela started today it would take 5-7 years to have meaningful production.

Venezueala’s current oil production is under 1% of total world output.

[GVI Forex 2]

Impact of crosses on spot (see chart)

Mirror image: GBPUSD (up) and EURGBP (down)

Market had more trouble absorbing the GBP buy size)

[Mtl JP]

David Roche – Quantum Strategy

US ousts Maduro – but is that enough for oil companies to go back to Venezuela?

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Gap opening and surge higher above 4404 confirms an uptrend that puts the record 4549 level on the radar (while above 4404).
• It also means that there are no key re4sistance levels to go after until the record high so use the intra-day high as the only resistance that matters.
• On the downside, expect support on dips, stronger bid if 4404 becomes support.
• Note demand for alternatives to fiat currencies (e.g. GOLD, Cryptos) makes sense if those in power look to park money in “safe” places after the US captured a leader of a foreign country.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading generally firmer to start the first full trading week of the year with the CHF underperforming while the JPY has more than recovered early losses.
• EURUSD has slipped below 1.17.
• USDJPY is back below 157 after failing to hold an early move above this level.,
• GBPUSD is lagging as EURGBP extends its low below .8700 (note GBPCHF as well).
• US stocks are up.
• US bond yields have dipped.
• GOLD has surged higher.
• BTCUSD has extended its range breakout above 92K
• Crude oil is has recovered from an early dip.
• Key data ahead: US ISM Manufacturing PMI

[Mtl JP]

what is that old saying about a level being attacked numerous times …. ?

so 1.17 12x on my 5 min charts
sofar holding

—-
China’s Special Envoy for Latin America and the Caribbean, Qiu Xiaoqi, met Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas just hours before the United States launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY UPDATE

• USDJPY trading higher on first day of trading in Tokyo for 2026.
• If break of 157.00 holds, then 157.88 becomes the target.
• If not, still maintains a bid while above 156.50 although key support is between 154.50-`55.50.

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• Tested 1,1702, the bottom of a 3 week range, Firm break would open a void on the downside to 1.1614.
• Otherwise, back above 1.1754 would be needed to negate  downside risk (using shorter-term chart),
• How markets close the week will be more important than ow they start out.

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[Mtl JP]

and that some punk tried to knock euro sub 1.17
but got his(her) teeth kicked in

[Mtl JP]

Please kindly note that

OPEC+ Reaffirms Output Pause as Eight Producers Cite Market Stability
ie will keep oil production steady through the first quarter of 2026

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening

(Right click on image to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

WSJ
Jan. 3, 2026, Krystal Hur reporting that

“Wall Street Expects the Market to Keep Rallying in 2026 Despite Lofty Valuations”
Corporate profits and falling interest rates may be enough to lift the S&P 500 to a fourth-straight year of gains, the longest such streak in nearly two decades

(fwiw: S&P 500 6858.47)

[GVI Forex 2]

Trader alert: How markets end this week will be more important than how they start out.

Watch Out for a New Year Whipsaw Market

 

[GVI Forex 2]

In out blog

Looking Ahead to 2026: More Questions Than Answers for Markets and Policy

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Read this and Become a Better Trader

The Market Isn’t Your Enemy: A Critical Mindset Shift Every Trader Must Make

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Waking up from a 2-week slumber with a breakout above 90500 (prefer to round up or down given volatility it BTCUSD).
• If 90K becomes support then 95K gets targeted.
• Only sub-90K postpones the risk, support on dips while above it.

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Will events in Venezuela lead to an increase in oil supply and weigh further on prices?

• Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves bin the world BUT it would be difficult for to significantly increase oil output for many years, even with U.S. investment
• Venezuelan Oil production collapsed due to decades of mismanagement and underinvestment
• Nationalization in the 2000s drove out major foreign firms like Exxon and ConocoPhillips
• Major obstacles remain, including security risks, failing infrastructure, legal concerns, political instability
• U.S. oil companies unlikely to return without guarantees of payment, safety, and lifted sanctions
• Chevron is the major U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela

XTIUSD (WTI) MONTHLY CHART

Major support at 55.17 and then a black hole below it ($50-55 a potential support zone?)

[GVI Forex 2]

Big event week ahead

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 5th-9th January 2026

Highlights include US and Canada jobs, ISM PMIs, EZ and Chinese Inflation, and potential Fed Chair Pick

[Mtl JP]

Big Oil and the drillers … and their refiners
–
on another note and imo some interesting postulations would be concerning the size of venezuelan oil reserve (largest in the world) — 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025 and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), making it the country with the world’s largest oil reserves. This amount accounts for about 17% of global reserves and surpasses those of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada, and Iraq.

[ST London]

JAMIE COX MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:

The overall market reaction will be muted—we might get some market moving news tomorrow during the OPEC meeting.

(Shares in) Big Oil and the drillers are likely to get a bid, as speculation could build about the potential benefits of rebuilding the oil industry in Venezuela.”
(Reuters)

[ST London]

BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BROOKFIELD, WISCONSIN:

“This was a matter of when, not if. I’m sure people will debate the political and legal angles, but from an investing perspective, this could unlock massive quantities of oil reserves over time. This could also serve as a warning to the leadership in Iran, and perhaps even in Russia, about the president’s willingness and ability (to) effect change.

“Markets sometimes swing into risk-off mode on expectations of conflict, but once the conflict starts, they rotate quickly to risk-on. Given how quickly this unfolded, the oil markets might be the only markets to respond. There have been plenty of forecasts of a supply glut in the oil market, and this will just add to that.” (Reuters)

[Author]

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