[GVI Forex 2]

Monday is a government and bank holiday in the US but exchanges are open.

[GVI Forex 2]

Monday is a government and bank holiday in the US but exchanges are open.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Friday’s session brought a cautious mood to the markets, ahead of a smattering of data and an uncomfortable weekend.

China’s finance minister has called a fiscal policy briefing for Saturday against a backdrop of high expectations and jittery trade. Investors and, as of Thursday, Swedish furniture shop IKEA want fiscal stimulus to reinvigorate the economy.

Morning Bid: Markets turn cautious before uncertain weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

Those who have followed me know how I feel about treating trading as a business and not a casino. If you treat it like a casino you will wind up like most of those who visit Las Vegas. If you treat it like a business then you have a chance to be successful.

Trading Tip: Treat Your Trading as a Business: Keep a Ledger.

[GVI Forex 2]

At first glance forex broker client sentiment reports showing net client positions seem like a useful tool.

However, when you dig deeper it raises the question whether the data should be taken at face value.

Are Forex Broker Client Position Reports Useful or Not?

1. 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – Watch 60K

With the rally attempt fizzling, focus shift back to the downside where the daily trendline is the last hope for the bulls to keep hopes alive.

To keep it simple, 60K+ needs to be renewed to ease the rissk to the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – WHEN IN UNCHARTERED TARRITORY

When in unchartered (record high) territory, big figures, such as 5800 increase in importance in the absence of any meaningful resistance.

The pause below 5800 suggets this is the level that would need to be taken out to accelerate the upside further.

On the downside, only a break of 5733 would suggest the high is in for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 2600 GOLDS THE LINE

A sI have been noting, 2600 was a key level that needed to hold to maintain my call for a 2600-2700 range.

Now, 2624 needs to become support to shift the risk to 2650-55/

On the upside, 2650-55 would need to be renewed to put the record high back on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

SSm as I noted, Hurricane Helene likely distorted the claims number.

In fact, most data will be distorted pre-FOMC in Nov due to Hurricane Milton as well.

[SF Monedge]

August Jobless Claims came in at the worst since August 2023.  Considering the administration and their agencies hid almost a million unreported job losses in the not too distant past, I wonder what those numbers really are.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks dip met with buying…

Re EURUSD focus looking ahead to next week’s ECB meeting.

Will stay defensive as long as sub-1.0950

[SF Monedge]

Ok DX sold into the European fix so the probabilities are that is done now.

[SF Monedge]

Although Euro is getting hit with stocks I don’t prefer the long side of USD against certain pairs today such as CHF due to the brewing risk related to the Iran situation.  Better off staying on the sell side of Euro.  A sudden high impact event, which is only a matter of time now, could cause extreme safe haven flows.

[SF Monedge]

After some delay Yen futures are beginning to see more weight on the sell side with the others such as Euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – POST DATA CANDLE

Post-US data candle 1.3015-1.3088, low would need to be taken out to expose key 1.30 support

Upside limited unless it gets back above 1.3050-65.

[SF Monedge]

Put to call ratios are decidedly down in stocks, as are advancing vs declining shares, as is the +/- volume.  At the moment.  Euro futures are still right in the middle of those algorithm parameters I mentioned below.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks opening lower…

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks opening lower…

[SF Monedge]

I’ve seen a lot of algorithms banks/fund managers use, have used, or would consider using.  At the moment on a session to session basis values across currencies are right in the middle of what would be considered extensions of buy or sell pressure.  That is regardless of if the % gain or loss is showing +/- on the pairs in relation to its star point for the week/day that begins with the Asian session.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up.. especially in long end… see if there is a correlation… EURUSDD remain below 1.0950 after earlier brief blip above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up.. disciple in long end… see if there is a correlation

[GVI Forex 2]

Watching the reaction in US bonds to the data (it is the reaction that matters)…. 2 year 3.97$ -4.7bps, 10 year 4.063%, -.0.2 bps… USD (slipping) seems to be correlating with 2 year (for now)

My focus is in EURUSD 1.0950 as the overall sentiment indicator… last at1.0943

How is this for a data reaction… see 5 minute chart (candle: 1.0907-1.0955)

[GVI Forex 2]

Maybe it was the news algos trading off keywords but nice gift in USD dip on reaction to jump in claims. I noted they would likely be distorted.

[GVI Forex 2]

CPI beats on upside

Weekly jobless claims much higher but likely impacted by weather event

[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims… see our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With U.S. stocks at new records and devastating Hurricane Milton now weakening as it passes over Florida, the shifting U.S. interest rate horizon is back in focus with September’s key inflation update due on Thursday.

Despite the stormy weather and Middle East anxiety, U.S. economic soundings remain robust and Federal Reserve easing expectations continue to be dialled back – sending the dollar to near two month highs in the process.

Morning Bid: New stock records as storm passes and CPI due

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART: 140-150?

Extended its recovery high but could not sustain a brief break above 149.50

I saw a bank forecast calling for a 140-150 range ahead of the March 31, 2025 fiscal year end.

I was also sent this:

The problem w reading “news” : BOJ may not be as dovish as Ueda’s cautious rhetoric suggests – Reuters

Whatever the case, 150 is clearly the pivotal level, especially with the 100 and 200 day moving averages (see chart) above 151.

Unless 150 is taken out, some will assume this is the top with the bottom somewhere between 145-148. To make a run at 150, 149.50+ would need t trade.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD Daily Chart – TESTS KEY RESISTANCE

When I start my day I scan the charts to see what catches my eye.

Today it has been USDCAD which tested 1.3738, the target following the break of 1.3647.

There are times that USDCAD act as a lead USD indicator so keep an eye on 1.3738 (and 1.3750 for confirmation should it be broken)

On the downside, support starts at 1,3690

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART 2600 HOLDING SO FAR

As I have been noting, 2600 is the key level on the downside in this retreat from the record high.

This chart is very clear: ,2605 is so far checking the downside but would need to move back above 2624 to shift risk back to 2650.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR CPI

Testing its 100 day mva (1.0933) with 1.0881 and the 200 day mva (1.0875) exposed as long as EURUDSD trades below 1.0950.

Next up are weekly jobless claims (distorted by Hurricane Helene>) and CPI. The latter i the key focus but unless 1.0850+ is renewed, risk will stay on the downside.

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