[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – Stuck in a rut

BTC remains stuck in 60-65K as it continues to trade sideways in a range. Given its history, the range is too tight to last for long but while within it expect more chop.

Looking at this chart, you have seen me mention my Amazing Trader charting algo, which even with a volatile crypto, forms patterns and levels (see the bounce off resistance) that can be used to trade.

[michael Calif]

re-post:    law of Time, the decline in USD futures since late June has ended.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

.SF, good call on the Dow earlier.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Another record high

With another record high (2670), there is no change to what I have been saying

When in unchartered record territory, resistance is only a guess so use the latest record high as the only level that matters,

For day trading, watch 2650 as a pivotal (bias setting) level.

However, to suggest a pause, it would need a day without a new high.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – FAILURE?

When we talk about failure, AUDUSD failed to sustain the break of .6899.

Now it is dependent on the trendline and .6814 holding (and .6782-00 as well) or momentum will be broken and the last leg up negated..

In any case, the deck is cleared of buy stops unless 6908 is broken.

[SF Monedge]

Global debt just reached $312 Trillion.  The US is putting up $1 Trillion in debt every 100 days since, not saying anything, 2021.  One might think with such out of control spending and more to come if Harris is elected that the top executives in every industry there is are hedging against that right now?  A perennial icon in executive attitude surveys (not to be named here) indicates the vast majority favor the sell side of stocks worldwide if Harris becomes President.  At an aggressive level.  The reverse for Trump.  Not making a political statement, just stating facts.  Food for thought.

[SF Monedge]

Next bus stop should be at 100.90 DX.

[SF Monedge]

Safe to say 100.50 DX broke, which works in tandem with the stock weakness.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

EURUSD 1.1167 was a former resistance so see if it becomes a support.

Note A squeeze on USD shorts in general

[GVI Forex 2]

A close colleague once told me, “Markets move on failure.”

In this regard, while the day is young, EURUSD failed to hold 1.12+.

Intra-day low is at 1.1178, so far checking the downside..

[SF Monedge]

DX 100.50 (50 is not a constant) is a key cycle point where it is basically make or break.

[SF Monedge]

You should be absolutely safe selling Dow 4240 today  if seen again and/or not already in.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 30 MINUTE CHART

Note how GBPUSD regained its bid (last 1.3408) after whatever order flow that was driving this cross higher was filled.

.8355 support needs to hold to contain the downside.

[SF Monedge]

I feel generous today.  Cycle parameters almost always include either the 50 and 70 mark or the 60 and 40 mark for spots of conflict and potential reversal.  Today it is UsdJpy 143.50 and 70.  The more significant value magnet is 143.25 today.  Yesterday it was 143.35.

[SF Monedge]

Cycle parameters adjusted to 144.15 soon after initial parameters noted earlier and so UsdJpy is in sell mode from there in tandem with DX.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME Fed Watch 62/38 for a 50bps rate cut (vs 56/44 earlier)… USD weaker but be aware with about 6 weeks to go before the next meeting, this indicator can be erratic.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 5 MINUTE CHART – WHY I LOVE THE AMAZING TRADER

Look at the bounce off AT support at 1.11918… this is no coincidence…why it is called “Amazing”… same support on a 15 minute chart

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures 42555 is your make or break point for the intraday cycle.  Currently 42575.

[SF Monedge]

I am expecting DX to hit 100.25 today.  Let the games begin.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I have said many times, the forex market lives to run stops… EURUSD stops run above 1.12, then quick retreat

[SF Monedge]

Case in point on market internals – Yields opened up strongly moments ago but immediately began pulling back which carried over to UsdJpy seeing a sudden, albeit small shot downhill.  I would pay attention to those internals today, which are mixed with a slight tint to the downside in the pair.  Again, however, the geopolitical element today should have stocks apprehensive and buoy USD unless it becomes dramatic and we see safe haven flows into CHF and such.

[SF Monedge]

 

UsdJpy remains dominant on the buy side until 143.95 is compromised definitively.  Why not just 143?  This time, only this time, my cycle oriented system simply has that number this time.  It is not stagnant.  Entering the US day stock markets are apprehensive with the geopolitical turmoil and rightfully so.  What could change that?  Either some significant development or global markets simply revisiting the rate reduction effect in my view.  Right now some components behind the scenes are negative Dollar so entirely possible. Yesterday they were decidedly positive but there was a delay in those orders filling through the market, which caused UsdJpy to run uphill overnight.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART

Here is another source of EURUSD buying and USDJPY demand as you can see by the rising red AT lines.

It could be a combination of shorts being squared up and the end of the carry trade sell off.

Whatever the case, key resistance is at 162.80

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistances : 1.12050 , 1.12350 & 1.13100

Supports : 1.11750 , 1.11450 & 1.11150

Close of this bar above 1.11850 would call for another leg Up

Close below 1.11750 – more of supports testing.

Direction is Up

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.1201 is also the high for the year… o far EURGBP (.8368) along with EURJPY are helping to keep a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The unexpected downturn in U.S. household confidence this month and growing anxiety about jobs has spurred aggressive interest rate cut bets anew – dragging Treasury yields, the dollar and stock futures lower into Wednesday’s open.

Morning Bid: US confidence wobble weighs, China buoyed

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART

Let’s take a look at what technical traders are looking at.

Last week was an outside week and close to an outside week key reversal although I was told many years ago that it doesn’t work well with currencies.

I just took a look at a broker’s sentiment and it shows 50% of trader positions are short USDJPY.

So, looking at the COT report as well, short USDJPY positions no longer look extended so it might take a move outside of 140-145 to expose key levels.

In any case, this can still be considered a retracement phase with FIBOS for 161.93-139.58 shown below

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE FROM MULTI-YEAR LOW

If trading EURUSD and GBPUSD, it pays to keep an eye on EURGBP, which is firmer today… weighing on GBPUSD while EURUSD follows with a lag

This follows a bounce from ,8317, lowest level since early 2022.

Supports: .8339, .8317

Resistance: .8389 (this week’s high)

[GVI Forex 2]

Early observations

USDJPY trading back above 144 but below yesterday’s 144.68 high

EURUSD failed to test 1.1201 but lagging GBPUSD

GBPUSD failed to hold new high above 1.34, firmer EURGBP appears to be a factor

AUDUSD went through its .6899 target and now back below it

[GVI Forex 2]

Since Fed rate cut expectation had an influence yesterday, let’s take a look what the CME Fedwatch is showing today…

58/42 for a 50 bps rate cur vs. 62/38 late yesterday

[Author]

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