[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ will be lurking on any ”disorderly”drop in tje jpy.

[SF Monedge]

There were 11 false breaks on an intra-day session to session basis in Yen futures from the start of the Asian session Thursday night through the close of the US session.  Due to the election in Japan one might consider not being overly aggressive in the coming Asian session unless it is a clear directional condition.

[GVI Forex 2]

Japanese ruling coalition is heading for a loss. How USDJPY reacts will be if market sees it impacting BoJ monetary policy decision. .

From Nikkei Asia

[GVI Forex 2]

From Nikkei Asia

8:11 p.m. 50 seats have been confirmed as going to the ruling bloc, with 27 for the opposition. 233 are need for a majority.

8 p.m. Voting closes. The ruling bloc is at risk of losing their lower house majority, Nikkei projected immediately after polls closed based on exit surveys of voters and other factors.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is expected to gain seats in the chamber, as is the Democratic Party for the People, amid public anger at the LDP over a political funds scandal involving dozens of its lawmakers.

[GVI Forex 2]

Japan election polls close in around 15 minutes.

Oil is expected to open lower after Israel retaliatory attack on Iran was seen as limited and avoiding worst case basis.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlight Oct 28-Nov 1

Newsquawk.com Highlights include US NFP, ISM Mfg, PCE, GDP, EZ and Australian CPI, UK Budget, BoJ and Japan LDP Election

 

[GVI Forex 2]

From a GV member after reading my blog article

I like your blog article. Exactly like I work but never thought of it as such

Interesting how you came up with it.

Why You Should Treat Forex Trading as Being in Episodes Not Trends

 

[Mtl JP]

according to CNN
–
“Israel hit Iran with three waves of strikes in a high-stakes retaliation. Iran says the attack caused ‘limited damage.’ “

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.079x friday close
–
(Bloomberg) — Oct 26, 2024
France’s credit rating was put on a negative outlook by Moody’s Ratings in the third warning in the space of two weeks over the deterioration of public finances and the political challenges in containing containing swollen budget deficits.

[GVI Forex 2]

It appears targets were military and not oil or nuclear.

[GVI Forex 2]

Geopolitics

Israel has begun retaliatory strikes against Iran

Only market open is BTCUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART – HEADING FOR THE RECORD HIGH?

Came within 200 pips of its record high, which is exposed aslong as it trades above 20000.

Next week is a key one with megacap tech stocks reporting.

So far no signs of pre-election jitters but always a risk so use 20000 as the level that provide a clue.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – PRE-ELECTION JITTERS>

Forget the technicals.

The question you should be asking is whether there will be position adjustments ahead of an uncertain US election???

In US500, 5800 will be the level that gives a clue.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HIUR CHART – RECIRD HIGH LOOMS

‘
To keep it simple, to expose the record high 2543 needs to become support.

Support on dips while above 2716 but consolidation unless a new high is set.

[SF Monedge]

A CTA in San Diego California (Southern California Naval Base and beautiful city) reminded me long ago that “markets overshoot.”  I am of the opinion that may apply to today’s price activity in some currencies but the dominant trend of say a week time frame has not been broken for them.  UsdChf  included, where the dominant trend is still the sell side even with the overshoot.

In my view EurUsd remains a buy and has not even overshot the trend yet.  I really hope Geo events do not change that because it would also mean stocks get pummeled along with a lot of people’s net stock worth.  Fridays tend to have that dynamic quite a bit.

[Mtl JP]

because , despite maybe 80-90% odds of one side,
FOREX has the uncanny ability to surprise and run on the 20 or even only 10% fumes

seen that a few times too many to forget

[Mtl JP]

“classic example”

I do not understand the exactitude of what is “classic” example

but in my mind, having seen the up and down price travels today

I was imagining the testing (and failing)m of some specific price points to that of pulling on a tiny hair of sleeping mustiff see if it swiftly comes up to bite or contibue to snore n sleep, just maybe flicking its ear

[GVI Forex 2]

As I also said to JP, today wa a classic example of a currency 9EURUD) appearing to trade bid in an offered market.

[SF Monedge]

JP – with you all the way on that.  Got ahead of it a little yesterday.  Trend is intact.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0805

The possibility of a 1.08 and 1.079x print is there

follow-thru is another possibility but of low low probability

personally not feeling friski to test the theories
fwiw

[SF Monedge]

Swiss Franc futures have been in an uptrend and remain so.  Currently 1603.  Next stop 1620 in strong probability.  Monday or so.

[Mtl JP]

1.0805 … ding ding ding …
degenerate traders are partying

feel friski ?

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0807

refering to my 12:21

On the south side EUR 1.0800/10 should hold on the day

obviously, remains to be seen

below nwould trgt 1.0750 initially

[Mtl JP]

GVI 3:37 / Friday’s have the particular feature of being end-of day AND end-of-week in FX world
Which means position squaring is the preferred if not dominant dish on the trading menu.

I think the most practical and valuable point in our discussion was the gaging abilty of odds of balance of sellers and buyers both at specific pricepoints as well as time points in the NY trading session which overlaps with London’s end-of-day.

[Mtl JP]

Profit opportunity based on fear ?

Fearing China’s hypersonic weapons, US Navy seeks to arm ships with Patriot missiles

(Reuters) – Fearing China will deploy hypersonic weapons to sink ships in the Pacific, the U.S. Navy is moving forward with a plan to arm some of its vessels with Patriot interceptor missiles, two senior defense officials said.

How many PAC-3 interceptors the Navy will need is uncertain, but overall demand is “through the roof,” said Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Lockheed Martin: $563.37, down a bit on account of some issues with f-35

[michael Calif]

re-post:    big picture:  time vibration is UP Euro, DOWN USD.    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

I took a sell side position in Aussie 10/16 and am out here because I think we may see 6700 at some point next week.  Just a view.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP and I were chatting offline about our short EURUSD positions

It started out with an AT Directional Indicator pattern indicating up episode was likely over and risk was shifting to the downside.

I said with no stops above EURUSD 1.0838 (only sellers), it seemed to be a matter of patience before moving lower using the logic that

Trend is down
‘
Once positions are trimmed/adjusted ahead of the weekend Who is going to go long EURUSD ahead of the weekend?

Just so this is not taken a a post in hindsight, I posted yesterday and again earlier to treat a move up as a retracement unless 1.0838 is firmly taken out.

[Mtl JP]

It is 11:11 in NY

meaning London sharks’ book squaring, for most part, should be done for the day / week
there could be some residual laggards but as long as 1.0837 holds
odds r low

[SF Monedge]

One thing to keep an eye on today is Vix futures.  When it gets above 18.60 that is an early warning level and if it trades above 18.70 and holds that is likely when stocks begin to pull back and stick.  Side note, in my opinion Vix futures are not an optimal intraday tool in terms of timing but it can certainly be of high accuracy at times especially if other metrics concur.

[Author]

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