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Newsquawk Market Update: Waller (dove) reiterates rate cut call
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Newsquawk Pre-Market Movers
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Global crypto ETPs see $1.9 billion in weekly outflows, adding to third-worst run since 2018
Global crypto investment products managed by asset managers such as BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares, and 21Shares witnessed net outflows of $1.9 billion last week, according to CoinShares’ data.That added to a four-week negative run now totaling $4.9 billion — representing 2.9% of assets under management — CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill noted in a Monday report, amid the continued crypto market sell-off.
“Proportionally this represents the 3rd largest run of outflows since 2018, beaten only by March 2025 and February 2018, marking a 36% decline in AUM representing the combined impact of inflows and price,”
DAX Index
Germany’s DAX rose over 1% to surpass the 23,300 mark on Monday, after significant losses last week, amid renewed optimism on a Fed’s rate cut in December even as policymakers remain divided.
At the same time, traders focused on the potential for a positive solution to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
However, the sentiment remains fragile amid lingering fears of a potential bubble in the tech sector, especially those related to AI. Bayer jumped over 8%, after the pharmaceutical and chemical company announced positive study results for its anticoagulant Asundexian, used in the treatment of strokes.
EUR/USD: Euro Sinks Below 200-Day Moving Average as Dollar Dominates FX Trading
Key points:
· Dollar gives up some pips
· Euro on the offensive
· Fed’s rate decision uncertain
· The euro kicked off the week at a big disadvantage, having broken below its 200-day moving average last week. That’s a level closely watched by technicians as a long-term trend indicator.
· The recent dollar strength came after New York Fed President John Williams signaled there may still be room for “further adjustment” to interest rates.
· Futures traders quickly recalibrated: CME FedWatch now shows nearly a 70% chance of a December cut, up sharply from about 40% a week ago.
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Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
Peace talks hope?
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Forex Market Snapshot
- A cautious start to what will be a 2 or 3 day week for many in the U.S.
- The dollar trading is mixed with EUR the only one up on the day, perhaps on hope of progress in a Ukarain-Russia peace plan.
- Risk mood is also mixed with U.S. equities backing off after trading firmer overnight.
- What caught my eye is the u-turn in Fed rate cut expectations that seems better suited to be 50/50 waiting for divided Fed members to decide.
This Week’s Market-Moving Events
Global markets face a dense week of economic data, with Asia-Pacific central banks taking center stage. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut rates again as soft growth and weakening labor conditions outweigh recent food-driven inflation. The Bank of Korea will likely hold rates steady amid rising household debt and strong housing prices in Seoul. Across the region, Australia’s inflation and investment data, Singapore’s production numbers, and India’s GDP release will further shape the regional outlook.
Europe will deliver a fuller picture of third-quarter performance as France, Germany, Italy, and Switzerland publish final GDP figures. Early data show France posting moderate growth, while Germany and Italy remain stagnant and Switzerland contracts sharply—pressures magnified by U.S. tariffs under President Trump that continue to reshape trade flows. Sentiment indicators across Germany and the eurozone remain subdued, with little evidence consumers are ready to boost spending. Meanwhile, preliminary CPI readings across major EU economies are expected to stay comfortably within the European Central Bank’s preferred range.
In the United States, a compressed Thanksgiving week will see the release of delayed reports, including September retail sales and producer prices, both offering clues about how tariffs and early holiday buying patterns are shaping demand. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will likely paint a flat or weakening economic landscape following the lengthy government shutdown. Japan wraps the week with inflation, labor, production, and retail data—much of it expected to reflect slowing exports to the U.S. under new tariff structures—while Canada and India round out the calendar with GDP readings signaling steady but moderating growth. (Econoday)
Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News
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BTCUSD (BITCOIN)
Given its volatility and large value (5-6 digits) I prefer to use pivotal round numbers (aka magic levels) and chart pasterns when looking at the big picture.
- 80K is one of those major round numbers which came undef attack Friday and held.
- Now if 85K becomes support than 88 gets targeted.. If firmly broken it would indicate a shift in momentum.
- If 85K fails to hold then 80-82 becomes support with a limited downside while above 80K
- Given its sensitivity to the risk on/risk off mood watch US stocks to see if the correlation continues.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Week ahead alert
Thanksgiving is one of the busiest travel tim,es with many taking 4-5 day holidays.
- For holiday air travel, the busiest travel day of the year in the U.S. is typically the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
- Busiest day: Sunday after Thanksgiving (travelers returning home).
- Runner-up days: Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after.
Week ahead trading:
- This is not a week when traders are looking to add to risk given thin liquidty, extended holidays.and month end on Friday.
- Keep this in mind when trading where choppy trading and limited follow through would be more the norm, than the exception
Newsquawk U.S. Stock Market Wrap
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Newsquawk U.S. Market Wrap
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The catalsy for the stock rally
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