[SF Monedge]

I mentioned Friday I like Franc and Loonie to hold and so far so good but expecting a little pull back any time now.  With the looming insane levels of volatility to come tomorrow you either had to catch the lows Thursday/Friday and sit or just play in and out because you don’t want to chase it heading into tomorrow night.

[SF Monedge]

EurChf could pull up from here.  The problem is it would run contrary to EurGbp selling fro 8420 as well as its correlation to stocks.  So perhaps a good hedge (buy one sell the other) and cut the loser when clear.

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD (WTI CFD) 1 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER MIND THE GAP

There are so many gaps today that I feel like going into a Gap store and buying some clothes.

Opening week gap to 69.71

Back below 70. 65 would put the gap in play, caps the downside while above it

Resistance at the 72.11 high, key levels at 72.50-85 lie above it.

Crude reacting to OPEC+ but pre-election poition adjustments likely a factor as well. .

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 1 HOUR –  ONE MORE UNFILLED GAP

Opening week gap to 1.3951

Back above 1.3927 would put the gap in play, caps the upside while below it

Support at 1.3890 tested, below it is 1.3875 and then a void.

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election

Anyone trading knows how hyper sensitive global markets are to news, whether it be economic, monetary policy related or geopolitical.

Being in sync with what markets are expecting and on alert for a surprise prepares a trader to assess a news reaction. This, in turn, allows a trader to be setup beforehand so he/she can take advantage of a news reaction rather than vice versa.

The question is then How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election?

 

[GVI Forex 2]

i remember the 2016 election where I believe the betting odds were 85/15 on Clinton beating Trump.

As polls came later election night it became clear that Trump was going to win.

This was not clear in 2016 due to mail in ballots and a race decided by a handful of vote in a few key states.

Now in 2024, watch the early results from Georgia (polls close at 7 PM and North Carolina at 7:30) but barring a surprise, the outcome will not be called on election night. I believe both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania don’t start counting mail in votes until the polls close so the earliest may be sometime on Wednesday.
‘
Whatever the outcome, markets will be extremely skittish and jumping around on any hint of a trend in the voting.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 152 acting like a magnet (last at 151.97)… low at 151.53 vs. key 151.44 cited earlier… SCROLL BELOW TO SEE EARLIER UPDATE

[GVI Forex 2]

10 YEAR BOND YIELD SNAPSHOTS

US yields are lower… may be contributing to a softer USD although main driver has been pre-election position adjustments so hard to suggest follow through.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With even the Federal Reserve meeting in the shade of Tuesday’s election, markets have little to go other than last-minute opinion polls that tilt the tight White House race either way, and Iowa did just that over the weekend.

With Tokyo markets closed on Monday and trading thinner as a result, the dollar recoiled sharply from Friday’s close after a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll on Saturday put Democrat Kamala Harris three points clear of Republican Donald Trump in a state that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020.

Morning Bid: Outliers from Iowa and payrolls sow confusion

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP

Brief break of .6615 not following through (.6646-61 above it)

Opening week gap to ,6559

Amazing Trader Directional Indicator (2 blue lines) shows potential for a top but only a break of .6585 would confirm and put the gap in play.

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP

Key support so far untouched at 151.44 vs. 151.59 low. Below 151.44 would shift focus to 150.

Opening week gap to 152.94

Back above 152.48 would put the gap in play, caps the upside while below it

152 will likely set the pre-election tone

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP

Double top so far at 1.0906 (1.09 likely to set the pre-election tone)

Opening week gap to 1.0833

Back below 1.0869 would put the gap in play, provides support while above it

Above 1.0906 would expose 1.0917-53

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP

Failure so far to regain 1.30

Opening week gap to 1.2919

Back below 1.2948 would put the gap in play, above it keeps a bid

Above 1.30 would expose the 1.3043 high.

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps (Friday closing price – opening price

EURUSD
GBPUSD
uSDJPY
AUDUSD

Note Friday closing price may wary depending on the broker

[Mtl JP]

brent s uP around 1.80 in a gap uP

[Mtl JP]

Canadian Press
“OPEC extends its oil output cuts by one month until the end of December”

no reason was given

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD 4h – Gold

Supports : 2730.00 , 2710.00 & 2695.00

Resistances : 2745.00 , 2760.00 & 2785.00

As long as below 2760.00 it will continue this so far correctional move Down.

Below 2710.00 this correction can escalate and go as low as 2595.00 and still be a Correction.

This coming week is filled with excitements coming from US Presidential election & FOMC decision   , so everything is possible, but Pattern/ Time wise Gold is in for up to 2 weeks of consolidation.

[GVI Forex 2]

Nov 4 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Global markets will be overwhelmingly dominated by the U.S. presidential election and interest rate decision later this week, so Monday’s activity may be driven by position adjustments as investors take in the latest polls, newsflow, earnings and economic indicators.

Morning Bid: Navigating US election, Fed, bond market tumult

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

This week, markets will focus on the US presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. The election is expected to be a tight race, with possible delays in final results due to absentee and provisional ballots. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to announce a 25-basis point rate cut, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to emphasize the central bank’s independence and data-driven approach.

October’s job report showed weak payroll growth but stable unemployment, signaling a mixed labor market. Inflation remains stubborn, especially in services, despite signs of stabilization in the Fed’s preferred PCE measure. Global economic releases include contracting manufacturing PMIs in Europe, a steady interest rate from Australia, and an anticipated 25-basis point rate cut from the Bank of England.

Together, these events will shape both market expectations and the outlook for monetary policy.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

… “Opening week EURUSD gap” … = a gift

[michael Calif]

headed into the election, Option Profile players continue to place bets on the Long side of Euro futures, and the Short side of Yen futures and SP500 futures    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Weaker USD open

Opening week EURUSD gap

Only news was a surprise Iowa poll showing big swing to Harris … outlier or not it?

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week EURUSD gap

[GVI Forex 2]

Newquawk Week Ahead Highlights Nov 4-8

Newsquawk Highlights include US election, Fed, BoE, RBA, Norges, Riksbank, US ISM Services PMI and Canada jobs

[Mtl JP]

Trading the 2024 US Presidential Election

is about dominant solace in sharing the same dislikes and metting out misery

[Mtl JP]

SF 3:11 you fluff my pips !

[GVI Forex 2]

How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election

Anyone trading knows how hyper sensitive global markets are to news, whether it be economic, monetary policy related or geopolitical.

Being in sync with what markets are expecting and on alert for a surprise prepares a trader to assess a news reaction. This, in turn, allows a trader to be setup beforehand so he/she can take advantage of a news reaction rather than vice versa.

Well, in just a few days we will see the mother lode of news events, the U.S. general election. With polls so tight, it is hard to predict the election outcome and who will be the 47th president of the United States.

The question is then How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election?

 

[ST London]

Weekend musings

We wanted to buy the EurUd dip (but never felt that we had reached a level that we were extremely confident of a genuine bottom)

However it is possible we reached one in Cable. If so then the surprise trade would be to move back through theUsd moveto some half way point before reassessing

That is why I just said the EurUsd and GbpUsd could move 200 pips back up but did not infer nor include UsdJpy in that

UsdJpy was bid up on a spurious conjecture that the US would no longer drop rates or would only do 1/4. (It has to be said the dot plot never suggested a 1/2 anyway but the stock market wanted an excuse whether it need one or not

So add in the political climate (in Japan) where the gamble of a snap election has just as it did in the UK failed dramatically and we have the ingredients of uncertainty where anything short(ish) term in UsdJpy could happen. why not a 4 or 500 pip range in one day ?

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TAKING A BREATHER OR IS THERE MORE TO IT?

Top is in for now so question is whether there is more to the move down?

To suggest more scope on the downside, 2731 then 2724-08 would need to be broken.

Back above 2762 would put the record 2789 high back on the table.

[michael Calif]

repost  –  big picture:    Option Profile remains decisively Long Euro futures Short Yen futures.    :gtwo3

[Author]

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