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With the dollar retracing today, this article posted in our blog yesterday is a timely one
In our blog
As those who have followed my thinking know, I believe trading is common sense. When you think of trading this way you can make sense of what many take as blind faith and learn how our logic takes advantage of retracements to trade. This is why I say embrace the retrace,
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Watch 1.08
Using Amazing Trader charts and logic, the 1.0770 low indicated a potential change in direction that was followed by the move up that tetted a resistance at 1,0807.
While 1,08 is clearly the bias setting level, treat any move that fails below 1.0838 as a retracement.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR – CHOP
PAUSING JUST ABOVE THE 100 PERIOD MVA (BLUE) IN WHAT REMAINS CHOP TRADING UNLESS EITHER SIDE OF 65-70k IS TAKEN OUT.
I CAN MAKE IT EVEN TIGHTER AT 65-68k BUT HISTORY SHOWS THIS IS TOO NARROW TO LAST FOR LONG.
MOVES lBELOW THE 100 AND 200 (YELLOW) MVA WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED TO SHIFT THE FOCUS THE OTHER WAY.
In our blog
As those who have followed my thinking know, I believe trading is common sense. When you think of trading this way you can make sense of what many take as blind faith and learn how our logic takes advantage of retracements to trade. This is why I say embrace the retrace,
AUDUSD DAILY CHART – TARGET AREA
The 200 day mva (6626) and 6621 support were cited by us as the key target area on the downside.
The brief break below this area (low .6614) but subsequent close back above it has not negated the risk but offset some of the damage.
A move back above 6645-50 would be needed to cool the risk
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – WHERE ISW THE BOJ?
If I was the BOJ I would be concerned over the pace of the USDJPY move so don’t be surprised to see some verbal intervention.
Key levels:
155.20 key daily resistance
153.39 = 61.8% of 161.94-139.58
153.19 = Wed high
152 = pivotal bias setting level
151.40= 200 day mva
150.49 = base of last leg up
US500 4 HOUR CHART – Amazing!
Look at how the Amazing Trader 5764 support held dead on. I created this charting algo and it still amazes me how well its lines/levels work
The break of 5805 was significant, suggesting back above 5800-05 would be needed to ease the risk.
In any case, high is likely in for now. Key level is at 5672, treat any move down as a retracement unless this level is broken.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – UP LIKE AN ECALATOR DOWN LIKE AN ELEVATOR
Close below 2719 would create an outside day key reversal but not sure how well that works with metals.
High (2758) is likely in for now at least and dependent on 2700 holding to contain the retreat.
On the downside, treat any move down as a retracement unless 2601 is taken out.
GBPUSD DAILY CHART – 1.30 breakdown
If you followed my posts about EURGBP you would have seen the driver of GBP selling.
Now, the 1.30 breakdown makes this the key level, below which downside stays exposed.
Key level is around 1.28, where the 200 day mva resideS..
Otherwise, in the absence of any obvious nearby support, use the most recent low as the first level of support.
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