[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP ahowa

Markets reacting to reciprocal tariffs that exceeded the worst case basis

Dollar down sharply… led by JPY and EUR (1.10 looms).

Stoking retaliation and trade war fears

Stocks down

Gold backed off after setting another record high

US yields fall to lowest levela since Oct

Normally this would be setting off alarms at the White House but this is not a typical administration driving the bus

Will post charts once dust settles

[Mtl JP]

cnbc’s Apr 2 20257:46 PM headline screams
“Dow futures tumble 1,000 points on fear Trump’s tariffs will spark trade war”

[Mtl JP]

so japan and ozzi stocks, at least at their “open”
open down.

lets call it liberation of some players off their “wealth” holdings

[GVI Forex 2]

This is not the end of the reciprocal tariffs story

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[Mtl JP]

From the “interpreters” at WSJ of President Trump annouced today

“Trump Unveils Sweeping Tariffs in Stark Shift in U.S. Trade Policy

Trading partners considered ‘bad actors’ hit with higher levies; others face a 10% rate”

Here’s what to know:

There’s a 10% baseline tariff. These are across-the-board levies on all imports, effective April 5.

Other nations will be hit with what Trump called a “discounted reciprocal tariff.” The higher rates are for nations the White House considers bad actors on trade. Duties will be 34% on China, 24% on Japan and 20% on the E.U., in lieu of the universal 10% tariff, effective April 9.

Auto tariffs will take effect tonight. Trump said he’s imposing 25% tariffs on all foreign-made autos as of midnight. …/..

[GVI Forex 2]

Leaving a window oipen to negotiate?

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[GVI Forex 2]

CDA, Mex spared (for now), 10% minimum tariff, higher elsewhere

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[GVI Forex 2]

I hope those trading paid attention to my strategy article for Lineration Day.

ADDENDUM

Reports confirm President Trump will make the reciprocal tariff announcement in the Rose Garden at 4PM Wed

This will come at the thinnest time for the USD session and after cash stock markets close.

This suggests a choppy, likely volatile reaction that will carry over into the Far East.

Hears the point… while a better reading will be once the dust settles and the market trades with better liquidity on Thursday, the initial reaction will likely be exaggerated with potentially whipsaw moves given the time of day in thin liquidity.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is another list of the taariff by country and %

[GVI Forex 2]

No country has been spared.  Here is a list.

[GVI Forex 2]

I warned of whipsaws and the risak on reversed once Trump revealed details.

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[Belgrade Bobby]

Trump confirms 25% tariffs on auto imports will start at midnight
Trump confirmed that his administration will impose 25% tariffs on auto imports starting Thursday at midnight.

Trump, in his Rose Garden speech, lamented, “None of our companies are allowed to go into other countries.”

“That’s why, effective at midnight, we will impose a 25% tariff on all foreign made automobiles,” he said.

[GVI Forex 2]

All 4 indices up heading into the close… suggests somw ope the tariff announcement will bring clarity and some relief

In any case keep an eye on stocks as that will tell you the reaction to the tariffs although as I have been saying, it is the thinnest liquidity time of the NY day.

…

[GVI Forex 2]

30 minutes to Zero Hour

[GVI Forex 2]

While we wait…

What is the trading strategy for “Liberation” (aka Reciprocal Tariff) Day?

 

[Alex Lugano]

Whole Trump’s “Tariffs Plan” is based on belief that reducing import through higher prices will bring more jobs to USA by opening of new factories / services as well as increasing production of existing ones.

But one of the issues is also The Deficit – and how to turn the tide of it.

Check out the table below and things might come to perspective.

[Alex Lugano]

Wall Street steadies ahead of Trump’s tariff plans

 

Indexes up: Dow 0.2%, S&P 500 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.4%

Trump’s tariff announcement at 4:00 p.m. ET

ADP, factory orders beat estimates

Tesla turns higher after reports Musk to leave govt role

 

U.S. stock indexes recovered from morning losses to trade modestly higher on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements.

The president has said that his reciprocal tariffs aim to equalize the comparatively lower U.S. tariff rates with those imposed by other nations. But the format of the duties was unclear, with reports that Trump was considering a 20% universal tariff.

“You’re seeing a market that is beginning to slowly rally. That is a read that the news may be more positive than expected,” said Eric Schiffer, chief executive officer of the Patriarch Organization.

“We’ll have continued volatility in the medium term. It will be about how trade partners decide to counter and what the impact of all this is on supply chains and profits.”

[GVI Forex 2]

All stocks have done so far are to recoup early losses but giving a feeling of risk on mood.

Amazon said to be making a bid to buy Tick Tock

[GVI Forex 2]

FX focus still on EURUSD… if 1.0861 becomes support, there is a void to 1.0918

[GVI Forex 2]

Perhaps an inevitable break of the bromance is helping a risk on mood (note USDJPY at 150… JPY weak on crosses …  EURJPY up)

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[GVI Forex 2]

Well, that was a timely post… EURUSD pop tested 1.0861 (see chart posted below), holding so far

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pops higher on this.’

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD ONE HOUR CHART – ITCHING FOR A BREAKOUT

After trading arouNd 1.08 for 9 dayS in a row, EURUSD Is ITCHING FOR A BREAK OF THIS PATTERN

As the chart shows, range is 1.0750-80 and 1.0830-50 with 1.0735 and 1.0861 outSide of it.

[GVI Forex 2]

Big pop in stocks juat now. (still down on the day).. again not seeing any news other than this

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[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar taking a hit (in ranges still) but no news.’

Equity focua ia on Tesla delivery numbers.

[Dora]

eurusd 20 min – retest – took profit on close of the bar

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Lutnick’s appearance on Bloomberg has been rescheduled for Thursday at the same time.

[Alex Lugano]

US Treasuries will follow stocks on April 2

STOXX 600 down 0.7%

Trump tariffs due at 2000 GMT

Wall St futures down

 

U.S. Treasury yields fell around 10 basis points in the first two days of this week, saddled by concerns about tariffs worsening an economic slowdown.

However, investors are uncertain about the possible market reaction to the U.S. announcement on duties as a trade war brings significant inflation risks, which could drive up policy rates and bond yields.

“As a one-day trade, we’ll take our cue from the risk asset space, and in particular equity markets,” ING strategists say.

“We don’t love doing this as we think the bond market is ‘smarter’ and more long-term in thinking,” they add.

“But if we go risk-off in a big way on the day, it’s hard to see bond yields rising, as there would be a flight into bonds,” and the reverse if risk assets take the news well.

The fallout over subsequent days will be determined by the details of what happens on Wednesday.

However, “it does feel that Treasury yields are in a mood to test lower still for a bit, trading off the growing recession risk being priced from a whole array of weak-leaning survey evidence, with tariffs acting as a tipping point,” they say.

White House tariff announcement is due at 2000 GMT.

Yesterday’s jump in the safe-haven yen started as equity index futures dropped in early U.S. trade and subsided when stocks picked up.

[GVI Forex 2]

No sign of Lutnick being on TV… logic says the interview, which was publicized earlier, may have been pulle ahead of Trump later.d…

[Alex Lugano]

US Dollar Falls Early Wednesday Ahead of ADP, Factory Orders, Tariffs

Weekly EIA petroleum stocks inventory data are due at 10:30 am ET and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is expected to speak at 4:30 pm ET.

EURUSD rose to 1.0799 from 1.0789 at the Tuesday US close and 1.0793 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Tuesday’s schedule, but European Central Bank policy board member Philip Lane is due to speak at 10:05 am ET, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 2:45 pm ET. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for April 16-17.

GBPUSD rose to 1.2940 from 1.2919 at the Tuesday US close and 1.2912 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no UK data on Tuesday’s schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for May 8.

USDJPY fell to 149.2649 from 149.6349 at the Tuesday US close and 149.3087 at the same time Tuesday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for April 30-May 1.

USDCAD rose to 1.4323 from 1.4309 at the Tuesday US close but was below a level of 1.4340 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Canadian data on Wednesday’s schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for April 16.

[Author]

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