[Alex Lugano]

US Dollar Falls Early Wednesday Ahead of ADP, Factory Orders, Tariffs

Weekly EIA petroleum stocks inventory data are due at 10:30 am ET and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is expected to speak at 4:30 pm ET.

EURUSD rose to 1.0799 from 1.0789 at the Tuesday US close and 1.0793 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Tuesday’s schedule, but European Central Bank policy board member Philip Lane is due to speak at 10:05 am ET, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 2:45 pm ET. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for April 16-17.

GBPUSD rose to 1.2940 from 1.2919 at the Tuesday US close and 1.2912 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no UK data on Tuesday’s schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for May 8.

USDJPY fell to 149.2649 from 149.6349 at the Tuesday US close and 149.3087 at the same time Tuesday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for April 30-May 1.

USDCAD rose to 1.4323 from 1.4309 at the Tuesday US close but was below a level of 1.4340 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Canadian data on Wednesday’s schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for April 16.

[GVI Forex 2]

Lutnick’s interview will be on Bloomberg TV

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP beats on the upside… muted market reaction… ADP is not a good predictor of NFP

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP jobs up next – See our Economic Calendar

Srocks slippimg

Headline watrch:

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick speaks at 08:30EDT/13:30BST

[GVI Forex 2]

 

US OPEN

Cautious risk tone ahead of reciprocal tariff updates on ‘Liberation Day’

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

US “Liberation Day”: US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 16:00EDT/21:00BST on Wednesday; US Commerce Secretary Lutnick speaks at 08:30EDT/13:30BST

USTR has reportedly prepared “an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option”, according to WSJ.

Stocks move lower as markets await reciprocal tariff updates on “Liberation Day”.

USD steady, Antipodeans outperform whilst Havens lag a touch.

Bonds largely in a holding pattern as we await the Rose Garden speech.

Crude is incrementally lower whilst spot gold prices remain underpinned by haven demand.

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD 4h

Support at 83.850 held nicely and in advance.

Next bar is very important – if it manages above 85.600, we’ll be seeing 87.600 shortly after.

BTC has to take it over and reach 91K in order to finally break this consolidation.

Anything else would bring us back to Yoyo phase and more of trendless waste of time.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistances: 1.08150, 1.08300 & 1.08500

Supports: 1.07900, 1.07750 & 1.07550

Directionless, biding its time in about 50 pips.

Trumps Liberation Day – so liberate us from this nonsense

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating

Consolidating between 3100-3150 awaiti g Zero Hour

On the upside, 3139 blocks the 3149 record high

On the downside, only firmly below 3100 would be needed to cool the bull fever but only below the trendline would suggest more to it,

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

… the dollar not surprisingly treading water ahead of the tariff announcement

What caught my eye is EURUSD PRINTING 1.08 FOR THE 9th DAY IN A ROW… the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken

XAUUSD up after holding 3100 yesterday

Light data calendar… all that matters is Trump at 4PM EDT… stay on guard for any leaks beforehand

[Mtl JP]

…”President Trump’s version will be met with worry and uncertainty.”…
and … new opportunities

at 16:00nyt Wednesday
after stocks close for trading

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Liberation Day: President Trump vs. History

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Why is the current financial crisis different from all others ?

[GVI Forex 2]

 

USDCAD 4 HOUR  – WHAT IS THE CAD SAYING

Maybe just some booking squaring or [perhap some hope that Canada will be spared the worst outcome?

In any case, when you see a straight line (in this case down) with no retracement it indicates real money selling.

Looking ahead, use 1.42-1.44/1.45as a reference range with only a firm move outside it giving a verdict on tariffs.

This article is worth revisiting we wait for the tariff announcement

What is this USDCAD chart telling us about tariffs?

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4 HOUR – 24 hours to go

24 for hours from now…Same for all stock markets… it will be the reaction to news that matters.

In this regard, it will be a new ball game after the close of the cash market tomorrow when President Trump will announce details on reciprocal tariffs.

On the upside, NAS100 would need to regain above 19815-20050 to suggest the low is in, at least for now.

On the downside, what matters most is the low at 18793.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR = A new ball game

It will be a new ball game after the close of the cash market tomorrow when President Trump will announce details on reciprocal tariffs.

On the downside, what amtters most is 5488-00.

On the upside, to suggest the low is in, 5700-32+ would be regained.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME – GameStop Corporation

Their gig with the crypto didn’t help…at all…

Kitty is Roaring, all right…but in agony 😀

23.25 & 23.95 represents two resistance levels that are going to be hard to get over.

Support at 20.75 doesn’t mean much – 18.85 & 17.70 should be ones that might provide some real support.

Below it 9.95 smiles cheerfully.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nothing changed with today’s attempt higher – Nio couldn’t reach even above 4.00

More losses are still on the cards.

3.60 – Important level to watch – below abyss opens….

2.15 & 1.20 are two levels that come to mind…

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Daily

Supports: 83.850, 82.650 & 81.500

Resistances: 85.500, 87.500 & 88.850

Bitcoin is kind of struggling, trying to turn the direction Up again.

For any real move Up we have first to see it above 91K, and that would be just a first step.

For tomorrow, I expect it to make another push Up to challenge resistance at 87.500

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

Supports: 3100.00, 3075.00 & 3060.00

Resistances: 3120.00, 3140.00 & 3150.00

We can expect for tomorrow a dip towards 3075.00 prior to continuation Up.

Action might be muted tomorrow – again Tariffs.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports: 1.07750, 1.07650 & 1.07500

Resistances: 1.07950, 1.08050 & 1.08150

Very tight ranges, but we can expect lots of commotion once Tariffs hit the street.

Chart wise : this can turn both ways equally , so stay on small time frames if you feel like trading is must, and if not get some pop corns and sit back and relax.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks giving back gains… hard to see big bets ahead of Liberation Day but stay on guard for headlines and leaks.

XAUUSD retreat from 3148 found support at 3100

[Anonymous]

Anybody remembers Fidel Castro? He was the ruler of Cuba… Legend has it that when Caribbean countries or any other countries faced natural disasters in that side of the world then first out from Cuba were teams of doctors and nurses and teachers, engineers etc … in many cases as soon as Castro would hear about the matter he himself would give the orders, in many cases he did not even “ask if help is required”, his men would make a call via diplomatic channels to advise that help is on the way and should reach in a few hours…

[Anonymous]

The US Government literally lost the shirt on it’s back with the government shutdowns and all that jazz… but what did the other countries in the world do? Just turn on CNN and watch… offer words of sympathy and encouragement (if even that) but nothing translated into action.

They would not even give the USA the time of the day in spite of the massive amount of funds and costly support the USA provided to them at no charge or even asking back for that and they did that for decades without so much as asking for anything in return other than the assurance for safety of their own people and those of other countries in the world in other words “safety”,… that’s all… and USA did not get even that… instead they got attacked and had to go fight wars… where is the safety in that?

USA is an all weather ally of all countries but then then they would not even give the USA the time of the day, and they need to realize that the USA is a true friend otherwise if they lose that friendship then it’s gone forever.

The LEAST they could have done was call the president and commit a portion of their money into investing in treasuries/bonds, or even saying that right now we are tight on funds but we can spare to pay back the amount of money and support you gave us and pay we will but little by little… not even a fucking word of reassurance did they give the USA…

Now Trump enters the scene and he’s not gonna tolerate that or any kind of BS. So yeah… He’s fighting for the country but if the country keeps backstabbing him then it prevents him from him doing the service he pledged to the people of his country and indirectly to people in other parts of the world too.

[GVI Forex 2]

White House Press Secy

Trump has made up his mind on tariffs

Reciprocal tariffs will go into effect immediately

Car tariffs wil start on April 3

[GVI Forex 2]

An addendum has been added given the timing of the announcement

iN OUR BLOG

What is the trading strategy for “Liberation” (aka Reciprocal Tariff) Day?

 

[Anonymous]

You see what I don’t like is… when your too good/kind to people they don’t appreciate it, and instead take advantage of you to meet their ends…

This is what has been happening to the USA and the rest of the world is guilty of that, by that I mean ALL countries… no exceptions…

Anyhows,… Russia and USA are the Two Twin Towers which Nostradamus wrote about and it had nothing to do with 9/11. When one rises then the other will rise as well. So they both need to become close, as close as close can be.

Then the world will become a magnificient place …

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – The Power of 50

As I posted earlier, … I always pay attention around the 50 level and the new record high at 3148 suggests a potential pause or at least a breather

Now dependent on 3100 holding or risk a further retracement.

 

[Mtl JP]

REMEMBER JEROME

“tariff (if any inflationary) impact expected to be transitory”

[Alex Lugano]

 Stocks rise, gold at record as investors await Trump tariff clarity

Bond yields fall, yen gains as safe havens garner demand

Spot gold hits record high at 3,148.88 per ounce

Oil eases from 5-week high as traders weigh slowdown risks

Global stocks rose on Tuesday following Wall Street’s overnight gains, while gold hit an all-time peak and Treasury yields fell as markets awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

The Japanese yen held firm, as did the Swiss franc, as traditional haven assets drew demand.

At the same time, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rebounded after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates steady, as widely expected, but warning of “pronounced” global uncertainty.

Investors are nervously awaiting April 2, a day Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day”, when he has promised to unveil a massive reciprocal tariff plan.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative released its annual report on foreign trade barriers on Monday, which contained scores of other countries’ policies and regulations it regards as trade barriers.

Yet it was unclear how the 397-page report will impact Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans.

[Anonymous]

EURUSD:- Target @ 1.1036

 

 

[Author]

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