[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Supports: 141.700, 140.650 & 140.250

Resistances: 142.450, 142.800 & 143.300

140 area is an important horizontal support and if lost opens a way for 127 area

Historically speaking , Yen can be split into two zones : above and below 125, so for now we are not even close to it….

[David Shepherd]

How far can GBPUSD move to the moon

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCAD Weekly

Loonie on the run 😀

Weekly chart is necessary to show you the danger that is lurking below…

This Uptrend channel dates back to 2021. And loss of this angle would have serious consequences for coming year if not two.

In normal circumstances , I would be pretty sure that we are close to some serious bounce UP, but this Geopolitical mess is changing things…

So technically, we should be in for a nice Up swing to at least 1.40 & even 1.42

Supports: 1.37650 & 1.36800 – anything below it leads to 1.34 – first bus stop

Resistances: 1.38950, 1.39650 & 1.40350

[GVI Forex 2]

Spain declares a national emergency

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[GVI Forex 2]

Spain declares an emergency

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[GVI Forex 2]

AT shows EURUSD resistance at 1.1420 and 1.1440

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4h

In contrast to EURUSD Cable is clearly going to test and try to break resistance just above the head.

1.34350 is a resistance that if taken out would open a road for much higher levels.

1.39100 is the ultimate target in that case, but not fast….

1.35150 & 1.37550 would be an interim targets and a Resistances on that road.

Supports right now:

1.33850 & 1.33050

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Stuck in a sideways.

Resistance at 1.14450

Support at: 1.13100

To be able to reach that resistance line above the head EUR has to stay above 1.13800 in next 4h.

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump needs a win. Japan and India seem closest to a trade deal.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks giving back earl;ier gains and now in the red.

Dollar is still on the defensive with shift to risk off.

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading tip: Using crosses to trade SpotFX

EURGBP sell order a driver today

Clue: Market had more trouble absorbing the GBPUSD buying than the EURUSD selling out of the cross

Takeaway is the cross gives you a clue about what flows are driving the price action and what happens whewn the order is filled. .

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Back on the defensive

Failure to test 144+ keeps it consolidating with risk more on the downside.

Faces supports between 142.00-50 before the key lows would come on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

Good oibsewrvation

U*SD down across-the-board , sti9ll led by GTBP and JPY

[ST London]

Are we seeing a slight change to what I’ve been saying for the last few weeks about the US wanting to buy dollars?

[Alex Lugano]

Range bound trading likely to continue, says Morgan Stanley
Key points:

·         STOXX 600 rises 0.7%

·         Banks among best off sectors

·         U.S. trade uncertainty in focus

·         S&P 500 futures down 0.1%

 

RANGE BOUND TRADING LIKELY TO CONTINUE, SAYS MS

It’s been quite a ride for global stocks since Trump’s “Liberation Day”, and now that things have seemingly calmed down – many benchmarks have recovered most of their tariff-induced slump – investors are wondering where markets are headed next.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson believes the S&P 500  SPX remains stuck in a volatile trading pattern, reinforcing the case for investors to favour quality stocks.

He notes the index tested both the lower (5,000 points) and upper (5,500) ends of his predicted range last week. It briefly overshot the top end of the range on hopes of a potential China deal and a more dovish Federal Reserve.

However, Wilson thinks any sustained break above key resistance levels will require something else to happen, such as a material reduction in the tariff rate, a more dovish Fed, an earnings rebound and lower bond yields, but without data that points to a recession.

“Bottom line, until we see clearer risk-on shifts in these factors, range trading is likely to continue,” he writes. “We remain in a late-cycle backdrop, where both quality and large cap relative outperformance should continue.”

And key to watch is rates. Wilson says the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% could fuel a rally, while a move above 4.5% would likely trigger a risk-off move.

[GVI Forex 2]

SP500 1 HOUR CHART – Watch 5500

Keep it simple:

5500 needs to hold to keep a bid

Stops run above 5531… guess where it paused… 5550 (Power of 50 level).. works in SP500 as well

So we have 5500-50 as the range, too tight to last for long

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – Ger 30

Dax continued its run towards important level 22.700

Supports: 22.300, 22.225 & 21.950

Resistances: 22.445, 22.575 & 22.700

Be aware of a possible correction that might hit in, but as long as DAX stays above 21.950 it will continue Up.

[GVI Forex 2]

Instant replay

EURGBP so far holding .8500 but would need .8516+ to shift the focus and risk

EURUSD retested 1.1373, holding so far and back to unchanged on the day

WHILE

JPY and GBP outperform

GBPUSD extended its high through 1.3355

Meanwhile

Stocks opening higher

USDJPY is trading lower but well within a 142-144 range

Bottom line… market is not sure what to focus on and why I am using EURGBP as a clue

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD is back pivoting  1.1350 while GBP{USD catches a bid… EURGBP is back down testing .8500, so far holding again… not sure if this was a catalyst but follows Bessent talking down the EURO… In any case, see if there is a replay in EURUSD if .8500 holds.

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD high just now at 1.3354… vs 1.3355 resistance… scroll down to see chart

[GVI Forex 2]

GOLD is back to 3300 after a failure to break 3260… scroll down to see earlier post

[GVI Forex 2]

Bessent on CNBC seemed to be talking down the EURO… maybe he is worried agbout a flight from dollar assetrs… no market reaction

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 5 MINUTE CHART – Using The Amazing Trader

Using The Amazing Trader (works great on ALL time frames)

2 blue lines indicated risk on downside

Spent 30 minutes trying to break 1.335

Spent 35 minutes trying to get above 1.3346

SApent 30 minutes trying to break 1.3331… checked the downside

[GVI Forex 2]

Notice the price action in EURUSD and GBPUSD after EURGBP bounced off .8500 (last .8512

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 5 min – How to Trade it

When trading on 5 min chart, one has to follow the waves

This morning it started very nicely from around 5:00 GMT and took a breather just after 9:30 GMT

This happens most of the time – always around 9:30-12:00 we have some sideways going on, even later you can claim that it was tradable – but when using tight stops, this can be a killer.

Now this should go on all the way till 20:00 GMT tonight.

Major parts of this strategy are:

–          Stop loss placed tightly

–          Pattern recognition for entry

–          Taking profit according to your R/R

–          Waves – Time wise

–          Skill to use 5 min chart within the bigger time frames like 30 min – 1h

[Mtl JP]

G30 Spring Lecture 2025 – Kevin Warsh, “Commanding Heights: Central Banks At A Crossroads Friday, April 25, 2025

[Alex Lugano]

Gold slips more than 1% as trade tensions subside, dollar firms
Key points:

·         Dollar index up 0.3% against its peers

·         Gold could retest the $3,500/oz mark – analyst

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday, as the dollar held firm and hopes for de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions dented appetite for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold  GOLD was down 1.1% to $3,282.33 an ounce as of 0843 GMT. U.S. Gold futures  GOLD eased 0.2% to $3,292.80.

The dollar index  DXY, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of others, rose 0.3%, making gold less attractive for other currency holders.

“Market sees trade tensions de-escalating and is less concerned about the Fed independence, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets for now,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

“With the Fed still expected to cut interest rates later this year, we still look for gold to retest the $3,500/oz mark.”

[Alex Lugano]

Euro Could Stay Range Bound Ahead of Key Data, Earnings
The euro is likely to trade within a range of $1.13 and $1.14 for the time being ahead of key economic data and high-profile U.S. earnings, ING’s Chris Turner says in a note. The European Central Bank’s survey on inflation expectations on Tuesday could show a decline in concerns over price pressures. However, eurozone April inflation data on Friday could show a pick-up in core inflation, he says. Eurozone first quarter economic growth data are also due Wednesday. In addition, this week sees earnings from the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Meta. “Their fallout on U.S. equities will probably also continue the recent positive correlation between U.S. equities and the dollar,” Turner says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1344.

[Alex Lugano]

Dollar steadies ahead of a string of macro litmus tests

Key points:

·         Dollar steadies; set for heavy monthly fall

·         US jobs data, GDP in focus; Eurozone CPI readings

·         Traders confused by mixed signals on U.S.-China trade relations

The dollar held steady on Monday as investors waited warily on news of U.S. trade policy and braced for a week packed with economic data that may give a first glimpse of whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war is hitting home.

At 143.69 yen  USDJPY and $1.1325 per euro  EURUSD the dollar has, for now, found a footing, while staying on course for its largest monthly fall in nearly 2-1/2 years as Trump has rattled confidence in the dependability of U.S. assets.

It is down more than 4% on both the euro and the yen through April, though bounced at the end of last week on an apparent conciliatory shift in the tone of U.S.-China relations.

Last week, both sides seemed to soften their respective stances, with the Trump administration signalling openness to reducing tariffs and China exempting some imports from its 125% levies.

“The next big chapter here will be whether all this volatility has hit real-world decisions – especially in the U.S. jobs market,” said ING’s global head of markets, Chris Turner.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures mixed, USD choppy on spot month end and USTs contained into Treasury Financing Estimates

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

• USTR’s office was reported on Friday to have prepared a framework for staggered reciprocal trade negotiations aimed at streamlining talks with 18 partners on a rolling basis over the next 2 months until the US’s July 8th deadline, according to WSJ.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had interaction with his Chinese counterpart in Washington last week and thinks the Chinese will see the tariff level as unsustainable and he also thinks there is a path to an agreement with China on tariffs, according to ABC New; US Agriculture Secretary said the US is holding daily conversations with China over tariffs.

• European indices are modestly firmer whilst US futures are incrementally in the red.

• Choppy USD session thus far on spot month end, GBP bid whilst CHF lags.

• Relatively contained start to the week for USTs, EGBs lag slightly into supply.

• Crude is lacklustre despite US-Iran talks, Gold continues to pullback.

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