[michael Calif]

Euro futures forming 1.14-.15 top just as they formed the previous 1.02-.03 low   gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump exempts phones, computers, chips and other products from new tariffs

S​martphones, computers and other electronics will be exempt from President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs, the administration announced.​

I​n a break for consumers, the ​United States will not collect the new duties on about 20 products listed in guidance issued by Customs and Border Protection, the federal agency tasked with collecting tariff revenues.

The exemptions appear to include products manufactured in China — which Trump had previously slapped with 145% levies on some goods.(NYP)

The guidance also includes exclusions for other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, and memory cards.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Highlights Ahead

Newsquawk Highlights include US Retail Sales, China Trade & Activity Data, BoC, ECB, UK & Aussie jobs, Inflation from Canada, Japan, UK and NZ

[GVI Forex 2]

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Supports: 81.500 & 75.000

Resistances: 85.500 & 88.780

BTC is slowly changing the direction to Up.

Might take couple of weeks, but if it goes straight above 90K picture will change promptly.

If at the end this proves to be the end of correction, it will easily target 120-130K

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

More proof of life coming on NIO…

Now for the turn of the trend two things have to happen:

–          First to break above 3.50

–          Second to test a support at 3.20 again and to hold and form a base for move up

If not, it will attack 3.00 and if below it targets 2.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

Tesla – TSLA

Tesla finishing this week perfectly positioned for….both ways.

220.00 on the down side and 270.00 on the upper side.

So what’s gonna be??

Usually in similar situations we can see break of both sides, and most of the time first break is the real deal but is followed by opposite move and break, just to continue in the direction of that first move.

So kind of a “play on the third ball” game.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

10 year slips to 4.497%

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Just posted in our blog

What is the Theory of Inevitability in Trading and How to Use it to Your Advantage?

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART –Power of 50

Next obstacle is the Power of 50 3250 level… best guess in uncharted waters.

Otherwise needs to hold 3200 to keep the uber bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks getting a lift, bond yields backing off a touch, dollar firming… looks like some end of week book squaring

[GVI Forex 2]

US yiekds moving higher.. 10 year 4.569%…. Fed’s Williams… HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY…expects… slower growth… higher joblrss… higher inflation

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUsd 15 MIN CHART – WHY WE CALL IT AMAZING

Chart speaks itself and why we call it The Amazing Trader… Amazing chart levels, Amazing patterns to trade… Easy to use… Amazing charting algo

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[GVI Forex 2]

Ugly U of M report

Miss on downside … inflation expectations rise

[GVI Forex 2]

Reminder U of M report is released to subsribers a few minutes before the public sees it.

[GVI Forex 2]

Earlier China said after hiking tariff rates that it would not respond with more hikes if the US retalates.

[Alex Lugano]

More on Gold

 

[Alex Lugano]

Gold price forecasts raised as rally continues
UBS and Commerzbank raised their gold price forecasts on Friday, joining other investment banks as investors drive the safe-haven metal to record highs amid the economic uncertainty sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

Gold prices breached $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday. Prices are up more than 22% so far this year.

“We expect gold’s rally to extend into next year and for prices to stabilise at higher levels further out,” UBS analysts said in a note, forecasting prices will hit $3,500/oz this year.

Commerzbank also raised its gold price forecast for the end of this year to $3,000, from $2,850, noting that assets under management in gold exchange-traded funds were a record $345.5 billion at the end of March.

Central bank gold buying has also been a factor in the price surge this year.

Top gold consumer China’s gold reserves stood at 73.7 million fine troy ounces at the end of March, up from 73.61 million ounces at the end of February, as the central bank bought the precious metal for a fifth straight month.

Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank raised its average gold price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $3,139 and $3,700 per ounce respectively.

The following is a list of the latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):

[GVI Forex 2]

High yield this week was 4.51$… high yield should be sounding alarms at the WH and Fed… is a USD negative

[Alex Lugano]

Germany corporate earnings week ahead

Diary of Germany (.GDAXI) corporate earnings for the week ahead
GERMANY EARNINGS

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – ger30

For DAX to find a footing ,it is of utmost importance now to stay above 20.100 ( that would speed up the recovery )

18.900 is another zone that can provide a good support.

Battle will be fought between 20.000 & 21.500 – this is an area that will show us next move.

[ST London]

This needs to be kept in mind

“Investors around the world have viewed America as the best place to invest…One of the ways that expresses itself is lower yields,” Kashkari said on CNBC. “If investors decide we want to invest elsewhere…that ought to be pushing up yields.

[ST London]

I would remind you 1.1746 was the opening trade back in the day and is where we return somewhat to neutral from the <1.08 trades
But do not rule out low 1.20s
In part due to

UsdJpy nothings changed in terms of low 130s hug 128 level

GbpUsd 1.34 1.36 1.42 1.44

[GVI Forex 2]

Downside miss in PPI, follows the CPI misss…. miled reaction… new ball game after tariffs kick in

Inflation expectations will be more important in U of M report

[GVI Forex 2]

Janie Dimon said he expects a lot of companies to withdraw forward guidance, S&P 590 company earnings to come down further

[Mtl JP]

ok.. not all at the same time PLZ!
–
somethings on the calendar
8:30 PPI

10:00 musalem // yaks on US economy & policy
10:00 U. of Mich
11:00 williams // on outlook and monetary policy

—
I am thinking that potential DLR popps will probably be sold
UNLESS , some how, the tariff-iking gets suddenly win-win unwound and poofs

[Mtl JP]

Kids … how noteworthy is chinese declaration made afer their 125% hike that they will not respond to any potential further action from the US ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Rumors of Fed intervention?

Reminder that the Treasury is responsible for forex policy, not the Fed

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks rebounding… dollar follows

[Belgrade Bobby]

MTL JP – you are right – this is full blown financial war going on.

[Author]

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