[GVI Forex 2]

Powell being non commital

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 low was dead on at AT’s 5575 suooort line… last 5595

[Mtl JP]

how noticeable “uncertainty has increased” …
willful pessimism in donald’s tariffs and negotiations ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks taking a hit may be focusing on these changes to the statement… risk to both sides oif dual mandate… ohigher unemployment nnd higher inflastion… a bad mix

[GVI Forex 2]

FOMC as expected.. Powell’s presser up nex

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[Mtl JP]

unchanged

[GVI Forex 2]

2% chance of a rate cut toiday

78bps in cuts priced in for rest of year

Some banks pushing back first rate cut to July.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART -Will set risk tone

With stocks likely to set the risk on/off tone after the FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference after,let’s take a look at what a US500 chart shows.

Range is clear at 5575-5700

Only a firm break of either side SP500 would trigger a technical response.

With the Fed expected to stay pat and not send a strong signal either way, there should not be a surprise

This doesn’t mean markets won’t react but barring a surprise, expect more chop than follow through.

[GVI Forex 2]

One hour to go

Let’s get ready for the FOIMC decision –

See a detailed preview

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHARTR –What is AT showing

Uptrend consolidating between 1.3307-1.3402

Move above 1.3402 starts a new leg up

Below 1.3307 ends the current leg up on a 1 hour chart but a similar level on a 4 hour chart is at 1.3233. .

Note BOE decision tomorrow

AT = The Amazing Trader (see link is in the top menu bar for a 30 day trial)

[Mtl JP]

and then there is german economic calendar:

Exclusive: German defence minister seeks annual budget hike to over 60 billion euros, sources say

Pistorius aims for some 63 billion euros in 2025, source says
Goal is to keep the budget at this level over the coming years
Germany loosened debt brake to fund defence spending surge

BERLIN, May 7 (Reuters) – German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is seeking a drastic increase in the country’s annual defence budget to over 60 billion euros ($68.21 billion) starting in 2025, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
In 2024, the regular defence budget was 52 billion euros. It was supplemented by 20 billion euros from a special 100-billion-euro fund created in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ./..

[GV News]

Waiting for the FOMC tonight

Currently, the CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 97% chance being priced in that the FOMC will hold its target range for its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% and a 3% chance of it being lowered to 4.00% to 4.25%.

Follow it on our Economic Data Calendar

[GV News]

US yield curve flattens on China trade talks; Fed in focus

 

Key points:

·         US yield curve flattening driven by US-China trade talks

·         Focus on Fed’s Powell’s comments post-meeting on tariffs

·         US rate futures price in Fed cut in July

·         The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened on Wednesday, as yields on the long end were lower than those on the front end, with investors attributing the move the U.S.-China trade meeting news overnight and continued spillover effect from the well-received 10-year note auction on Tuesday.

·         Moves overall were subdued ahead of the outcome later on Wednesday of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting body. The FOMC is widely anticipated to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

·         The spread between two-year and 10-year yields narrowed to 48.8 basis points (US2US10=TWEB) on Wednesday, compared with 51 bps late on Tuesday. Typically under a Federal Reserve easing cycle, the curve generally steepens, with yields on short-dated Treasuries tethered to rate cuts.

·         “There’s some optimism that the U.S. and China will come up with some decision on tariffs, or something big might happen and the Fed might not have to do anything just yet,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director of rates and trading, at Mishler Financial, in Park City, Utah. “Therefore can either invert or flatten quite a bit.”

·         U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.

·         In late morning trading, the 10-year yield fell 3.1 basis points (bps) to 4.289% (US10YT=TWEB).

·         U.S. 30-year yields also dropped, down 4.6 bps to slipped 1.4 bps to 4.767% (US30YT=RR).

·         On the front end of the curve, U.S. two-year yields rose 1.6 bps to 3.807% (US2YT=RR).

The benchmark federal funds futures market has priced in a more than 70% chance that the U.S. central bank will resume its rate cuts at its July 29-30 policy meeting, according to LSEG calculations. It also sees about 80 bps of easing this year.

[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:22 and I suppose it is the EU that thinks it will be the arbiter of what constitutes failed negos.

[Belgrade Bobby]

AUDUSD Daily

Aussie is in daily Uptrend, and looks pretty bullish to me.

Obvious target is 0.67650 – long term declination resistance line originating back to February 2021.

Resistances: 0.65150, 0.65450 & 0.66550

Supports: 0.64450, 0.63950 & 0.63450

As long as above 0.6350 it should continue Upwards

[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:11 / with eurdlr at 1.1367
the volatility spark could come from jerome’s 2:30 yak about his views on econ growth and inflation within the confines of trade tensions and their current and future developements.

Players are variously betting on more than two cuts by year end. IF jerome rings in some optimism about the future, players are likely to make adjustments to their current pricing of the FED’s cuts.

[GVI Forex 2]

EU threat but just part of negotiations

 

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[GV News]

Can Ethereum (ETH) Outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in 2025?

 

Key points:

·         Although it has moved a little from the multi-year low against BTC recorded earlier this year, ETH continues to struggle when compared to the largest cryptocurrency (and also the greenback).

Tech Factors

It has been said time and time again in the past several months that ETH’s price has failed to copy any of BTC’s momentum. While the largest cryptocurrency surged to a new all-time high in January 2025 at almost $110,000, Ethereum was stopped on a couple of occasions at $4,000 and came nowhere near its 2021 peak.

The current price tag of just over $1,800 means that ETH actually trade slower against the dollar now than it did before the US elections (generally considered the beginning of the current cycle). The ETH/BTC trading pair reached a five-year low at under 0.018 a few weeks back and now sits very close to those levels.

“Ethereum’s value proposition, though, lies in its use case as a programmable blockchain. If Ethereum gains wider adoption and institutional interest—especially in sectors like decentralized finance (DeFi), enterprise blockchain solutions, or NFTs—it could experience significant growth.

 

Ethereum has the potential to outperform Bitcoin in certain areas,” but the latter’s role as the primary store of value and its established position in the market may provide it with a more stable long-term growth trajectory.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

It feels like markets are like junkies waiting for the next news fix to spark some volatility.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

No real direction from April 24th .

Range: 1.12650 – 1.14450

With FOMC just hours away, only thing we can do is – wait for it.

Closing tonight above 1.12650 would be Bullish for EUR – ignore breaks and breaches – wait for Close.

Below 1.12650 Bearish….

[Alex Lugano]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Approaches $97K Resistance Amid Emerging Warning Signals
Bitcoin is facing strong resistance at the $97K level, highlighting an ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. However, current price action suggests a potential corrective phase before any decisive breakout.Technical Analysis The Daily Chart

Bitcoin has continued its impulsive surge after breaking above the crucial $90K threshold, reaching the $97K resistance region. However, the bullish trend has temporarily stalled at this critical level, with the price struggling to break above it. The recent consolidation near $97K reflects the presence of supply and a clear battle between buyers and sellers.

Additionally, the 100-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross, which could signal weakening momentum. Given the current structure, Bitcoin appears poised for a short-term corrective pullback or consolidation toward the $90K area before any potential breakout above the $97K resistance.

[GV News]

XAUUSD – Gold
An overbought gold price could present opportunities

Fundamentally the argument for holding gold is a strong one and the draw of $3000/oz is significant and the level provides a viable target. However, from a technical perspective the price of gold is stretched. The risk of a reversal, albeit likely a small one, is increasing.

A sharp pullback from a $2942 record high last week gave a warning, and an acceleration higher this week adds to the risk of a direction change. A quickening pace within an established trend can precede a reversal.

Fourteen-week positive momentum is at levels that coincide with deep pullbacks against the underlying bull trend back in October and May 2024.

The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been above the 70.00 line (overbought) since late January and has a current reading of 76.00. However, the weekly RSI reached levels of 82.00 before the market turned sharply lower back in October 2024. This suggests that gold could go higher still before retreating.

Fibonacci retracement levels taken off the $2536.70-$2942.70 November-February rally provide pullback targets and potential bull trend entry levels at $2847, $2788, and $2740.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP remains an influence on EURUSD and GBPUSD

EURGBP slips baACK TO.8500… Gives GBPUSD some support, EURUSD loses some (but not all) of its bid (still above 1/1350)

Otherwise, US stocks giving back some of its news spike gains from late yesterday.

[GV News]

US Dollar Rises Early Wednesday Ahead of FOMC Meeting Conclusion

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Wednesday, except for a decline versus the Canadian dollar, before the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement at 2:00 pm ET at the conclusion of its two-day rate policy setting meeting and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET.

Currently, the CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 97% chance being priced in that the FOMC will hold its target range for its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% and a 3% chance of it being lowered to 4.00% to 4.25%.

EURUSD fell to 1.1365 from 1.1373 at the Tuesday US close but was above a level of 1.1320 at the same time Tuesday morning. The Eurozone’s construction purchasing managers’ index rose in April but still indicated contraction while retail sales declined in March, slowing the year-over-year rate, data released earlier Wednesday showed. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for June 4-5.

GBPUSD fell to 1.3347 from 1.3379 at the Tuesday US close but was up from a 1.3339 level at the same time Tuesday morning. UK construction PMI rose slightly in April but remained below the breakeven point, data released overnight showed. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday when a 25 basis point rate reduction is expected.

USDJPY rose to 143.2294 from 142.3941 at the Tuesday US close and 143.0726 at the same time Tuesday morning. Japanese services PMI rose more than expected in April to indicate a faster pace of expansion, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for June 16-17.

USDCAD fell to 1.3786 from 1.3796 at the Tuesday US close and 1.3817 at the same time Tuesday morning. The Canadian leading index rose slightly in April, according to data released earlier Wednesday. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for June 4.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX

DAX has lost the upward momentum right now, without challenging the previous High.

What is important is that it wasn’t rejected sharply, so no savage profit takings…

Now we have two levels that should provide good support and consolidation platform:

22.800 & 22.100

Tonight is  FOMC and that fact has to be taken into consideration – we’ll know what’s next after it.

There is still time for DAX to take a chance pre-FOMC and go for a run at the all time high….

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CHART – Keep an eye on 1.38

Pattern: Pivotal (“magic”) 1.38 level has printed 6 days in a row

The longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move in the direction of the break.

If there is a risk, it is tilted to the downside but contained while this pattern persists.

[GVI Forex 2]

It looks like ther “50” level is playing a rolE today

EURUSD 1.1350

GBPUSD 1.3350

USDJPY 143.50 (HIGH 143.45)

[Mtl JP]

re PbOc rate cut: “to Aid Economy Hit by Tariffs – Bloomberg”

President Trump just might hold out a little longer. beyond chinese workers getting laid off, getting no pay no severance Xi needs to implement massive changes to non-tariff barriers. note that 1 in 3 manufactured thinggies in the world are – stil – made-in-china.

[ST London]

Bessent indicated that the US – China meeting’s primary focus will be on de-escalation rather than forging a comprehensive trade agreement. He noted that while “everything’s on the table,” any substantive decisions would depend on President Trump’s strategic direction.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US-China to start trade talks this week & PBoC announced rate cuts; FOMC due

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed US-China trade talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng to visit Switzerland from May 9th-12th and will visit France from May 12th-16th for economic and financial dialogue.

PBoC Governor Pan announced to cut RRR by 50bps effective May 15th and to cut the policy interest rate by 10bps effective on May 8th with the 7-day reverse repo rate lowered to 1.40% and interest rates on Standing Lending Facility across all tenors lowered by 10bps. Pan stated that the policy rate cut will lead to a Loan Prime Rate cut of 10bps and the RRR cut will release about CNY 1tln in liquidity.

European stocks mixed whilst US-Sino trade talks have been confirmed and as traders await the FOMC.

USD stronger vs. peers as US-China meeting spurs trade hopes, JPY underperforms.

Two way action for EGBs & Gilts but benchmarks ultimately firmer, aided by auctions. USTs more contained pre-FOMC.

Crude firmer on China’s monetary policy easing, US-China trade talks, and rising tensions between India and Pakistan.

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