[GVI Forex 2]

Beyond my pay grade to predict whether the new French government will be toppled again.

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500): Trade concerns back in focus

• US-China trade war back as a weight on stocks
• Reaction to negative news is a chink in the equity market’s Teflon armor but within its range unless Friday’s 6496 low is taken out.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pops on thias headlinebut still within day;’s range

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[GVI Forex 2]

What does pivotal mean in trading?

• • In trading, the term “pivotal” generally means crucially important or a key turning point
  • A pivotal level is a key area on a chart where price action often changes direction from rising to falling, or vice versa. For day trading I fgocus on the “50” level as often acting as a bias setter.
  • Traders watch these levels to see if price holds (bounces even after a small break) or breaks (reverses trend) .
  • Note how your emotion changes depending on whether a currency, for example, trades above or below the pivotal 50 level

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Turning into a Power of 50 day… watch these levels to be pivotal

• EURUSD 1.1550
• GBPUSD 1.3250

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD: On the defensive but still within its range

• On the defensive butso far holding off a run at the 1.1541 low to contain the downside.
• However, would need to break the intra-day high at 1.1594 to fully negate today’s downside threat.

What does logic say?

Dollar upside should turn cautious (i.e limited)  the closer we get to Fed Chair’s Powell’s speech today at 16:20 GMT (12:20 EDT)

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Pre-Market Movers

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[GVI Forex 2]

GS earnings beat

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)) What a difference a day makes

1. Mood flips back to risk oiff
2. Range is clear: 23974-24872/25205
3. Eocus your trading on shorter term charts until/unless either side is broken,

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Bank earnings beat

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[Mtl JP]

Scott demures

” Oct 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. federal government shutdown is starting to impact the nation’s economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday as the closure entered its 13th day.
“This is getting serious. It’s starting to affect the real economy,” he told Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” program, without offering more detail.

How serious scott: is there smell of burning flesh on the stove top yet ? Does it actually burn, how painful is it ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

French no confidence saga

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD; Hit by weaker jobs report

• Reaction to news day with a brief break of the recent 1.3261 low (stops run)
• Now dependent on 1.3250 and 1.3200 holding or the risk shifts to a long standing 1.3139 target.
• Resistance at today’s 1.3315 breakdown level, key level is at 1.3370

‘GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) Wild ride

1. Up like an elevator down like an elevator day
2. Wild ride with a surge from 4001 to 4180 (record) to a plunge to 4090 (and then back above 4100) sets the day range until/unless either side is broken.
3. Volatility in 4100-4200 suggests an unstable range but one where it would take a break of 4090 to force bulls to take a pause

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART[JM1]

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

Mood turns risk off

Markets struggling to find a common theme:

• Politics Will another new French government fall? ongoing US government shutdown, uncertainty over next Japan government;
• Will US-China trade war escalate
• Expectations of rate cuts amid a divided Fed (watch Powell speech today)

Forex:

• USD trading firmer
• AUD flipping from overperforming yesterday to underperforming today
• GBP hit by UK jobs teport

 

[GVI Forex 2]

ZEW current conditions up, sentiument and expectations down

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[ST London]

And gold now giveth to buy the dip $4138

[ST London]

Hey JP

Well timed and traded and now back to your starting point

Better than trying to pick a bottom in gold after the high was in

Now at 4093

[Mtl JP]

I am starting to think about the kind of retirement send-off party President Trump will grace him with

[Mtl JP]

ST – re Powell

is almost pity-inspiring if not outright embarassing (almost like ol’ joe), repeating and prefacing his upcoming performance with “face a delicate balancing act”

[Mtl JP]

re my 2:30 post:

THAT is what I call a Trade Call:
– ahead of time
— parametered
— reached as layed out

[ST London]

Gold taketh and now giveth back

Support 4109-10 has to hold or…

[ST London]

Gold taketh and now giveth back

Support 4109-10 has to hold or…

[ST London]

Powell speaks later

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face a delicate balancing act when he speaks Tuesday before the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. His remarks, expected at 12:20 p.m. ET, will mark his first major public appearance since the Fed’s policy meeting last month, which exposed deep divisions among Fed officials about the timing and magnitude of future interest-rate cuts.

[ST London]

Silver also setting record high

[ST London]

Oct 14 (Reuters) – Gold prices climbed to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday on increased U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut prospects, while resurgent U.S.-China trade woes boosted safe-haven bets, including those for silver, which also reached an all-time peak.

Spot gold climbed 1.3% to an all-time high of $4,162.31 per ounce, as of 0341 GMT….

…The bullion has been bolstered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, rate-cut expectations, strong central bank buying, and robust exchange-traded fund inflows.

Bank of America and Societe Generale analysts now forecast gold to hit $5,000 by 2026, while Standard Chartered raised its 2026 average forecast to $4,488.(Reuters)

[ST London]

Oct 14 (Reuters) – Gold prices climbed to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday on increased U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut prospects, while resurgent U.S.-China trade woes boosted safe-haven bets, including those for silver, which also reached an all-time peak.

Spot gold climbed 1.3% to an all-time high of $4,162.31 per ounce, as of 0341 GMT….

…The bullion has been bolstered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, rate-cut expectations, strong central bank buying, and robust exchange-traded fund inflows.

Bank of America and Societe Generale analysts now forecast gold to hit $5,000 by 2026, while Standard Chartered raised its 2026 average forecast to $4,488.(Reuters)

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1570
IF puppy can break out N from here odds are it will hunt for 1.1590/1.16

[Author]

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