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Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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US500 (SP500)
- Bearish pattern confirmed by the break of 6815
- Still well within the realm of a retracement with major support not until 6532
- Hope for the bulls is that move down has filled the open gap (low 6760 vs 6793 gap)
- Back above 6815 needed to negate the breakdown.
- Below 6760 extends the slide.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
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USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the pullback into the 153.27 level. We can see that we have also an upward trendline defining the upward momentum. If the price extends the drop past the 153.27 level, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 151.00 support next.
FX option expiries for 4 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day
That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1525 level. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance but could just play a part in holding price action a little, though the downside momentum since last week remains very much intact. As such, I don’t see the expiries having all too much impact especially with the risk mood looking fairly nervous and defensive ahead of European trading today.
The rejection of the 100-day moving average continues alongside the break of the October low of 1.1542, allowing for the downside momentum to stretch further for now. The end July lows near 1.1400 will be a key target to watch on any continuation of that.
GBPUSD UPDATE
Big picture:
Failure to regain 1.3137 (also a key intra-day level) leaves A POTENTIALLY TOUGH 1.30 standing in the way of a big void on the downside, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE BOE DECISION ON THURSDAY.
Intra-day low 1.3059 (use 1.3050-59 as a support zone)
Watch EURGBP .8800 as a GBP sentiment indicator to see whether GBPUSD stays a leader or a laggard.
GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Why is USDJPY weaker?
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As we have been noting, pressure to end the shutdown will build after Nov 1
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
A bit of a disappointment by not benefiting from the risk off mood.
To repeat:
- Battle for 4000 continues as it trades at this level for the 7th day in a row
- The longer this pattern around 4000 goes on the greater the risk of a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once the pattern is broken.
- See chart for levels.
XAUUSDÂ 1 HOUR CHART (right click to open a full screen chart in a new tab)
USDJPY UPDATE
Why is USDJPY trading weaker (JPY firmer) today?
- Unwinding of carry trades, both in FX and in equities with JPY as the funding currency along with quasi verbal intervention combined to push JPY higher.
- In any case, it has been a liquidating market so watch how equities trade today
- Chart: Below 153.65 trades bearish. Above it would put 154 back in play.
- Not seen on this chart is 153,27, the former breakout level on the upside and now dependent on It holding to contain the downside. Otherwise, little on chart until 152.15.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading generally firmer except vs. the JPY as stocks tumble overnight to set a risk off mood. There was no apparent catalyst for the sharp drop in equities that has seen indices trade sharply lower ahead of the US opening
- EURUSD briefly broke 1.15 with the level back in play for a potential options defense after a bounce off the low failed to follow through.
- Weakest on the board are GBP, AUD and NZD.
With EURUSD 1,15 options strike level exposed, this article is a must read
Understanding Forex Options Defense: How Big Players Protect Key Levels and How You Can Trade It
Newsquawk US Stock Market Wrap
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Newsquawk US Market Wrap
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XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Battle for 4000 continues as it trades at this level for the 6th day in a row, last 4 following the low at 3886
- Don’t be complacent
- Stay alert.
- The longer this pattern around 4000 goes on the greater the risk of a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once the pattern is broken (watch 4046 on top)
XAUUSDÂ 1 HOUR CHART
Fed’s Cook on the fence
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