[Mtl JP]

… “Opening week EURUSD gap” … = a gift

[michael Calif]

headed into the election, Option Profile players continue to place bets on the Long side of Euro futures, and the Short side of Yen futures and SP500 futures    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Weaker USD open

Opening week EURUSD gap

Only news was a surprise Iowa poll showing big swing to Harris … outlier or not it?

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week EURUSD gap

[GVI Forex 2]

Newquawk Week Ahead Highlights Nov 4-8

Newsquawk Highlights include US election, Fed, BoE, RBA, Norges, Riksbank, US ISM Services PMI and Canada jobs

[Mtl JP]

Trading the 2024 US Presidential Election

is about dominant solace in sharing the same dislikes and metting out misery

[Mtl JP]

SF 3:11 you fluff my pips !

[GVI Forex 2]

How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election

Anyone trading knows how hyper sensitive global markets are to news, whether it be economic, monetary policy related or geopolitical.

Being in sync with what markets are expecting and on alert for a surprise prepares a trader to assess a news reaction. This, in turn, allows a trader to be setup beforehand so he/she can take advantage of a news reaction rather than vice versa.

Well, in just a few days we will see the mother lode of news events, the U.S. general election. With polls so tight, it is hard to predict the election outcome and who will be the 47th president of the United States.

The question is then How Traders Should Prepare for the U.S. Election?

 

[ST London]

Weekend musings

We wanted to buy the EurUd dip (but never felt that we had reached a level that we were extremely confident of a genuine bottom)

However it is possible we reached one in Cable. If so then the surprise trade would be to move back through theUsd moveto some half way point before reassessing

That is why I just said the EurUsd and GbpUsd could move 200 pips back up but did not infer nor include UsdJpy in that

UsdJpy was bid up on a spurious conjecture that the US would no longer drop rates or would only do 1/4. (It has to be said the dot plot never suggested a 1/2 anyway but the stock market wanted an excuse whether it need one or not

So add in the political climate (in Japan) where the gamble of a snap election has just as it did in the UK failed dramatically and we have the ingredients of uncertainty where anything short(ish) term in UsdJpy could happen. why not a 4 or 500 pip range in one day ?

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TAKING A BREATHER OR IS THERE MORE TO IT?

Top is in for now so question is whether there is more to the move down?

To suggest more scope on the downside, 2731 then 2724-08 would need to be broken.

Back above 2762 would put the record 2789 high back on the table.

[michael Calif]

repost  –  big picture:    Option Profile remains decisively Long Euro futures Short Yen futures.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Experienced Traders 10 — News algos 0

[SF Monedge]

The job numbers have alarmed a lot of people of course.  One standout is that of the recent quarters of hiring, apparently a minimum of 36% are government hires and not private sector jobs.

Then we have inflation still a resounding problem.  Add in an approximate 127% Debt to GDP ratio and things look peachy.

Bearing in mind I grew up playing tackle football on concrete streets in San Francisco on famously steep hills:

We need Joe Montana to run the country.  It needs a come from behind victory.

[GVI Forex 2]

IAAY (It’s All About Yields)

4.358% US 10 year

USD up

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD low 1.0846

Posted pre-data (EURUSD range 1.0906 – 1/0846

1.09 should be tough on top, back below 10840-50 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.08

[SF Monedge]

At first glance the dramatic Boeing Union demand of a 38% wage increase strikes one as quite extreme.  But consider the real inflation rate of ordinary goods and services over time and it might not seem so extremem.

The inflation rate of eggs in November 2020 was 208 compared to 361 in September 2024 with a 39.62% price increase from this time one year ago.

Candy coat inflation all you want to and remind yourself that inflation has been decreasing overall.  Those decreases are not based on prior levels, they are based on historic highs.  My bet is the Union wins but takes around 30%.

[SF Monedge]

Jp- maybe.  Nice call on Eu the other day btw

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10-year yield at 4.335% vs. around 4.23% on the NFP reaction.

[Mtl JP]

and not about prospects of “soft-landing” ?

[SF Monedge]

Today’s reaction is about interest rates and the Fed receiving enough of a scare to almost guarantee continued easing.  So that provides a cushion for stocks and weight on yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 hour gold chart… trading between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Now leave the numbers and trend lines aside for a moment – this is experience and Pattern recognition talking :

–          The Demon made an extended new low

–          Came back Up with the vengeance

–          If it takes out 1.30000 it will fly

–          Not your typical Bear trap, but close enough

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yield back to 4.31… so much for the headline NFP gift

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 1 HOUR CHART – ON THE REBOIND

GER30 following a general risk on rebound today.

Next resistance zone is shown on this chart.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Resistances : 2760.00 , 2775.00 & 2790.00

Supports : 2730.00 , 2705.00 & 2685.00

Pattern suggests an Interim High is in place.

Correction is on cards that can last up to two weeks.

[GVI Forex 2]

UDJOY 1 HOUR CHART – DOUBLE BOTTOM

This is even clearer,

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPOY 1 HOUR CHART – CHART SPEAKS FOR ITSELF

Many of you have seen me post charts with my Amazing Trader (AT) charting algo lines on it so here goes again.

The double bottom on this chart (151.78) is just another example of its uncanny ability to identify key chart points and that is just part of how to use the program.

All I know is I would not have drawn this line on this time Frame but AT did.

If you want to get access to AT, sign up for our Trading Club (free) and then email [email protected]

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI slight miss on downside but prices paid component jumps… dollar higher

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP ONE HOUR

Unwinding of EURGBP creating sort of a tug of war between EURUSD (off its high) and GBPUSD (higher)… EURGBP support zone .8353-73

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI is the next key data event

See our Economic Data Calendar

[Author]

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