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Sterling Traders Should Exercise Caution Over Hopes For Closer U.K.-EU Ties
Sterling investors should avoid being too hasty in pricing in a possible improvement in relations between U.K. and EU, Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister says in a note. A rapprochement is unlikely to happen quickly with access to the EU single market only being granted in exchange for concessions, he says. Moreover, some of the U.K.’s problems such as low productivity began well before Brexit, he says. While sterling would rise if improved access to the EU single market were to materialize, it’s “simply too early to factor in potential positive outcomes.” The U.K. is preparing a bill that would bring the country into alignment with EU law. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3440. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8684 pounds.
BTCUSD Weekly
Bitcoin failed in front of 95K and now we have to see what is going to happen at 87.500
Loss of opens a road for test of 70K
There are two more levels within a reach now : 65K & 53K – later being a last line of defence for BTC for it to be able to continue with another Rally this year.
EURUSD Daily
Pair is in a slowly rising channel with the borders 1.15200 – 1.20150
On the Daily it is quite Bearish – but there is one level that can change it all in a given moment – 1.16350.
Watch that one – it is separating EURUSD from probing deeper.
If lost, we can expect a full blown correction going to at least 1.15200
Jobless claims close to consensus
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Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Of all markets, forex algos seem to live to run stops
With the USD trading generally firmer, let’s take a look at its highs for the week as breaks would be needed to run potential stops. Otherwise, expect more chop awaiting Friday’s key events.
- EURUSD 1.1659
- USDJPY 157.30
- GBPUSD 1.3414
- USDCAD 1.3888 (new high set yesterday and extended today)
- AUDUSD 6670
- NZDUSD .5741 (retested today, no stops)
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- The quick retreat from a tepid 4500 test has broken the strong momentum.
- Now dependent on the up trendline and 4395 holding to keep bulls in control and a downside risk from taking over.
- Above 4475 would be needed to put 4500 back in play.
- As I have been saying and will say again, how markets end the first full week of the year will be more important than how it starts out.
XAUUSDÂ 4 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading mixed to firmer with the AUD and NZD underperforming as softer equities (although off the lows) weigh on the currencies.
- GBPUSD is softer (so far breaking a 4 day pivot around 1.35) while EURUSD is close to unchanged (but so far breaking a 3-day pivot around 1.17) as EURGBP has extended its recovery from earlier in the week losses.
- BITCOIN has been a victim of a start of the year whipsaw, testing sub-90K after failing above 94K earlier in the week.
- News flow has been light as markets look ahead to Friday’s US jobs report and whether the Supreme Court will announce its opinions on the legality of Trump tariffs.
In Trump World, be prepared to expect the unexpected
In our blog
Looking Ahead to 2026: More Questions Than Answers for Markets and Policy
Newsquawk Market Update
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Newsquawk US Market Wrap
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NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- Tried to play catchup and got close to but paused below key 25842 resistance (high 25808), which has been a key obstacle for some time.
- Now dependent on 25539 holding to keep the current momentum going.
- Otherwise, 25260-335 needs to hold to keep thoughts away from 25000.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Bulls achieved their first goal to make a new record high (6963) but now comes the hard part – establish the old high (6943) as support and then break 6963 for a run at 7000.
- The failure to hold 6932 is the first chink in the armor but only sub-6900 would expose supports (see chart) and risk one of those new year false starts I warned about.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
Stocks dipped on Trump TS post
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Market Update
Forex: Choppy day as an ISM Services PMI beat was offset by a JOLTS miss. Pivotal levels patterns to watch as the USD tries to catch a bid.
- EURUSD 1.17 (3 days in a row)
- GBPUSD 1.35 (4 days in a row)
- USDCAD 1.38 (CAD a 2026 underperformer)
- USDJPY 157 (former resistance)
US Stocks: Maintaining a firm tone with a brief dip on the ISM Services report met with buying. NAS100 trying to play catchup while US500 is currently back into record high territory =(scroll typo see earlier updates with charts).
XAUUSD: Quick retreat from 4500 has cooled momentum but only sub-4400 would suggest a failure to go after the record 4549 high.
BTCUSD: Disappointing by not benefiting from a risk on mood and dependent on 90K holding to contain the downside
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