[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS misses (plus revisions)

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[GVI Forex 2]

ISM Services PMI beat (but JOLTS misses)

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[ST London]

Markets ignoring geopolitics

US forces seize sanctioned, Russia-flagged oil tanker that eluded Venezuela blockade

US forces boarded and seized a sanctioned oil tanker Wednesday morning, more than two weeks after it eluded a blockade around Venezuela and was reflagged as a Russian vessel in a failed bid to evade capture….

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Still lagging behind US500 and DJIA setting new record highs and hoping to play catchup with the NAS100 record peak still intact at 26274,
• Blocking the way are 25714 and 25842.
• Keeps a bid focused on these levels as long as trade is above 25335.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Hard to make predictions when in unchartered record high territory so watch 6950 as it would need to become support to make a run at 7000.
• If not, keeps a bid while above 6932 and 6900 below. Key support still distant at 6886.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

As we wait for the next set of US data, the reaction will be more important than the news itself.

[GVI Forex 2]

Venezuela oil

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[GVI Forex 2]

ADP jobs: slight miss, little reaction

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers

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[Mtl JP]

potential. one of the few biggest burdens most people carry

Spencer Jakab in Jan. 7, 2026 WSJ:
“Will Stocks Crash in 2026?”
There probably won’t be a market crash this year, but both amateurs and pros could be getting the odds wrong.

easy yakking when one’s income is a stable weekly salary eh ?

[GVI Forex 2]

US data due next

, US ADP (Dec), ISM Services (Dec), JOLTS (Nov)

See Consensus Forecasts

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD UPDATE

• An outperformer (CAD underperforming) so far this year with the pair extending its 2026 high, but so far with limited follow through.
• This leaves 1.38 as the obvious pivotal and bias setting level although only back below 1.3745-55 support would deflect the focus from it.
• Resistance: Intra-day high at 1.,3827 blocks exposing 1.3871.
• It’s early in the day but currently a red candle after 6 consecutive daily (up) green candles.
• Note, one weight on the CAD may the prospect of Venezuela heavy oil on the market in competition with a similar grade produced in Canada.

USDCAD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX)

• 2026 range: 98.19-98.91
• Using USDX as a proxy for the EURUSD (57.6% of the index), a break of its 2026 range at 1.1660-1.1743 would be needed for USDX to challenge either side of its range.
• Chart shows an attempt to build up momentum that would need to break 98.73 to do so.

USDX 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Only a short-lived reaction to EU inflation

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[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• There are times when a key psychological or as I like to say key pivotal big figure (round number) can be more significant than a technical point. This was one of those times overnight where a tepid test of 4500 was quickly repelled.
• Uptrend is still intact with 4442 (tested) needing to hold to keep momentum pointed at 4500 and above.
• Fallback support 4427 and 4395.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar has traded a quiet session, currently close to unchanged, JPY a slight over performer, as the market awaits US data (ADP jobs, ISM Services PMI, JOLTS).
• EURUSD extended its trade around 1.17 to 3 days in a row.
• GBPUSD extended its trade around 1.35 to 4 days in a row (each day this year)
• USDJPY has slipped a touch but remains within its range.
• Gold has backed off from 4500
• US stocks have slipped back a touch overnight.
• As I have been saying, how markets end the first full trading week of the year will be more important than how it starts out.
• Wild cards are a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs as early as Friday and Trump announcing his choice for a new Fed Chair, which could come at any time.

[ST London]

Dollar edges up vs euro as focus shifts to economic data

• Summary
  Markets have so far brushed off geopolitical fractures
• Awaiting batch of US data
• Dollar edges up vs euro after subdued German inflation figures
• Yen unaffected by China’s ban on dual-use items to Japan (Reuters)

[GVI Forex 2]

Busy Economic Calendar on Wednesday

Australian CPI (Nov), German Retail Sales (Nov), Unemployment (Dec), Chinese FX Reserves (Dec), EZ Flash HICP (Dec), US ADP (Dec), ISM Services (Dec), JOLTS (Nov)

See Consensus Forecasts

[GVI News]

Mission accomplished or more to come?

XAUUSD tests 4500 (high so far)… last 4494

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 156.67 as I type and
as 156.56 2x bottom held S
US 10-yr 4.173%; JPN 10-YR 2.127%
–
On deck:
19:30 PMI; exp’td 52.5 vs 53.2 prev

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Cleared the first hurdle with a move above 25596.
• Next hurdle is 25714 and then 25842 before the record high at 26274 would come into play.
• Keeps a bid as long as trade is above 25335.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Is it mission accomplished (i.e. new record high)  or setting up a clear path for 7000?
• For a clear path, the former record high at 6943 needs to become support.
• In any case, it keeps a bid as long as it trades above 6900.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

cnbc headlines
“S&P 500 hits fresh all-time high, Dow heads for first close over 49,000”

“Prediction markets show rising odds Trump seizes Panama Canal, moves on Greenland”
(nothing on Canada however, sofar)

ps / NFP on Friday

[Mtl JP]

yaaaaa — aaahhh
but look at THE action in BITCOIN !

[GVI Forex 2]

USD, meanwhile, remains a sideshow with pivotal levels remaining at eurusd 1.17, gbpusd 1.35 and usdjpy 157

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Precious metals remain disconnected from risk on/risk off with XAUUSD having only the psychological 4500 level standing in the way of the record 4549 high.
• Anything other than a new record high would be a disappointment to the GOLD bulls.
• In any case, keeps a bid while above 4427.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI News]

Supreme Court and Tariffs

The US Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day, indicating that date will be the first chance for a ruling on President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

The announcement on the court’s website comes as the justices return from a four-week holiday recess.

The courts never says in advance which decisions are ready for release, only that rulings in argued cases are possible when the justices take the bench at 10:00 a.m. Washington time. A tariff decision is a possibility given the court’s expedited handling of the case so far.

Bloomberg

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1698 as I type
–
looks like no magic … for now
IF puppy clears 1.17 next, just might open up test of 1.1750-is

[Author]

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