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US500 UPDATE
- Stocks seem torn between signs of slowing growth and the prospects of lower interest rates as a result… so far the latter is winning out’
- Key (and potentially tough) level remains at 7014 (record high), 7003 standing in front of it.
- Keeps a bid while above 6900, stronger with a risk for 7000+ if 6950- becomes support.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
US retail sales miss, core flat as well… note Dec data
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Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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DAX Up Marginally As Market Looks For Direction
German market’s equity index DAX hovered around a near four-week high Tuesday morning with investors mostly making stock specific moves while looking ahead to upcoming U.S. jobs data.
The DAX was up 17.63 points or 0.07% at 25,022.37 a little while ago.
BTCUSD 4 h
Bitcoing failed to return above 72 K and now we have to see reactions at:
Supports: 68.200 & 65.350
For BTC to form a bottom and turn back Up again, it has to stay clear of 62.800
Loss of that  support would open a huge can of worms…like attack at Major Support waiting at 52.850
Bellow that one All Bets are OFF
FX option expiries for 10 February 10am New York cut
EUR/USD at the 1.1910 level. The expiries are not ones to tie to any technical significance, so the impact might be a bit more limited. The dollar was weaker yesterday and we’re now seeing the currency pair nudge back above the 1.1900 mark. However, the expiries could keep a lid on any price extensions in European morning trade. That especially since the focus and attention in markets will turn towards a hectic 72 hours of key US economic data releases.
EURUSD ( and coffee ) Daily
Monday’s run of about 120 pips made lots of people quick to call for continuation of EUR rally.
But what we have here – an Up correction of previous sharp drop…
Pattern wise – one futile attempt to turn tables…
My opinion – there are 3 more days left in this week for EUR to reach the new high for it to be able to keep going Up.
Before it tests again 1.18500, 1.18000 and ultimately 1.17500 and in case it can hold it’s head above the water, we might have additional rally…
However, this formation is more likely to finish around 1.15500
Intraday pressure is starting to build Downwards , and 1.18500 should be seen in next 24h
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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USDJPY UPDATE:
- USDJ{Y is one of those currencies where psychological big figures (round numbers) are often more important than fine tuning technical levels.
- We are in one of those times where 155 is the key focus with 154.55 the next key support.
- So far, the market is giving Takaichi a free pass to pursue her expected stimulus program and the BoJ a free hand to raise rates. Whether Takaichi & Co, looks to temper the BoJ remains to be seen. So, keep an eye out for headlines in this regard going forward as a loose fiscal policy and a dovish central bank is a prescription for a weaker currency.
- With that said, for now risk is on the USDJPY downside with 155 holding the key to what comes next.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD UPDATE
- Back above 5000 and consolidating after a run at both sides of its range (4982-5982) paused just shy of both ends (4987-5086)
- So it is a case of the glass being half empty (pause below 5092) or half filled (support above 4982) where the risk stays on the upside as long as 4980-00 holds as support.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is consolidating in mixed trade after yesterday’s sell-off except vs a firmer JPY, both vs the USD and on its crosses
Worth noting is that yesterday’s USD selling was said to have been triggered by a news report that China had told its private banks not to buy US Treasuries.  This saw yields tick up and the dollar fall but when yields dipped back later in the day the USD did not react. This suggest there was more to the selling than just a headline.
In forex.
- EURUSD is consolidating in a tight range following yesterday’s rally after a 5-day pivot of 1.18 was broken
- USDJPY extended its post-election retreat that paused so far above 155. While prospects of economic stimulus have boosted the stock market to record highs, talk is that a loose fiscal policy increases the risk of the BoJ turning hawkish
- GBP continues to be jerked around by pressure on PM Starmer to resign while his cabinet members have circled the wagons as he vows to stay in office.
- AUDUSD has backed off from .7100 (but stays bid above .7000) as AUDJPY slips as well.
- On the data front, attention is looking ahead to Wednesday’s release of the delayed January US jobs report.
DLRYEN 155.26 as I typr
with reference to my 11:26Â see yellow circle for the GAP
(GAP (s):Â Most of the time I like to trade ’em)
now that the bottom of that GAP has been reached I am expecting some new theme
not yet sure what it ll be as that price GAP was an alleged intervention
so potentially an old theme has now been POOF-ed opening up room for some new dynamic
ETHUSD
Ethereum has held firm above the key $1,700 psychological support and pushed back into the $2,000 range. Following weeks of downside pressure and sell-off concerns tied to post-ETF consolidation, Ethereum is slowly beginning to show signs of a reversal.
Traders are now eyeing the $2,850 resistance zone as the key pivot. A clean break there could trigger a la chain reaction of buying pressure that can push prices rapidly toward the $3,000 mark.
USDJPY UPDATE:
- Picking up the pieces after a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction to the LDP election landslide victory as the market turned wary of inciting intervention.
- To build up momentum off the 155.54 low, the 156.14 level would need to be regained BUT only a break of 156.78-would negate the downside risk…. above 156.93 would be needed to shift the focus back to 157.65
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART
would shgiuft the risk to 157.65.
Newsquawk US Market Wrap 2
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Newsquawk US Market Wrap 1
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US500 UPDATE
- Bulls trying to take control but require a break of 7014 to break fresh ground (i.e. new record high.
- Otherwise, range is still 6800-7000 with a bid as long as it stays above 6900.
- If you make the current range 6800-=7000 then 6900 will act as a bias setting pivot (currently still above it).
US500 4 HOUR CHART
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