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BTCUSD DAILY: Clinging to support
Clinging to support with a pause just above 75482 (low 75503) as momentum tries to build to the downside. As long as support holds though range is intact.
Just in case: With a huge void below it, use 75K as fallback support that needs to hold to limit the downside and avoid putting 70-72K back on the map.
BTCUSD continues to oscillate within its over-three-week range of roughly 77,000-80,500, losing📉 momentum near 77,270 and putting the floor back in focus. Still, the price remains above the 50- and 200-day moving averages after decisively breaking above its longer-term descending📉 trendline drawn from the yearly highs,
GOLD target for the bears will be the $4,200 level, followed by $4,100. A drop below $4,100 would expose June’s eight- month low of $3,942, putting the yellow metal back on its long-term📉 downtrend path.
However, if the Fed surprises by not raising rates tomorrow, or a hike is not accompanied by a convincingly hawkish tone, gold could 📈bounce higher, initially targeting $4,400. A break above $4,400 would shift the focus to the 200-day SMA at $4,539 before the bulls re-test the August peak just below $4,700
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Will the BoJ intervene?
With short-term momentum turning up and USDJPY testing back above 155 for the first time in over a week, will the BoJ try to resist and intervene? Given a generally firm USD tone and rising US bond yields, the BoJ might try to slow the market but it is doubtful an ambush would be effective. In this last episode before the BoJ ambush, the upside stalled below the 61.8% level so keep an eye on FIBOS in the absence of key nearby levels as well as the pivotal 155 level.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Key supports?
Trying to build on its break of a 7-day pattern around 4400 where charts show a void of key supports until around 4000. This suggests using the most recent low (4253) and key round numbers (e.g. 4200) as key supports. Back above 4280-00, at a minimum, is needed to slow the risk.
COMING UP: Data: Chinese Activity Data (Aug), UK Jobs/Wages (Jul), French/Spanish Inflation Final (Aug), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep), US ADP Employment Change Weekly
Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone Supply: Japan, UK, Germany, US
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks hit as AI CEOs call for slowdown in AI development
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
XAUUSD VS. BTCUSD
XAUUSD: Bounce back above 4282 after stops were run has cooled the downside while back above it but would need to at least get back above 4355 to shift the risk back to 4400. What stands out is the pause above 4250 another example of the importance of the “50” level.
BTCUSD: Pause above 76000 maintains the current range to n80000
NAS100 (NASDAQ) DAILY: NAS100 vs US500
Unlike US500, NAS100 broke support but with limited follow through (suggest giving NAS some leeway given its large denominator.
Similar to US500, a void of nearby supports below the low suggests using round numbers (e.g. 28K and FIBOS in case the low gives way.
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Key resistance looms’
Little reaction to CDA AUG CPI, which came in about as expected. CAD also not benefiting from the steady rise in crude oil, which by the way has just moved to a new high for the day.
As this 4 hour chart shows, it has been a one way street from around 1.38, which has broken down momentum but now faces key resistance looming overhead at 1.3940.
