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In the US attention turns to tech after the close. Meta’s call is at 4:30 p.m. ET, with Tesla’s following an hour later. FactSet expects Tesla to earn $0.45 a share on about $27.9 billion in revenue, and Meta $6.67 a share. IBM and Lam Research also report tonight. With NAS100 already struggling below 30K, the reaction to these numbers could set the tone for indices into Thursday.
Market Movers: UK inflation surprise, Meta and Tesla tonight
UK CPI rose 3.5% year on year in September, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.4% consensus. That’s the highest rate since September 2023. Fuel prices were the main driver, and the print has firmed up expectations of a Bank of England rate rise. That keeps GBP crosses and gilt yields in focus.
How Currency Crosses Help You Find the Side to Trade
A forex chart shows where a currency pair is trading. It does not always explain why it is moving.
You might see GBPUSD rally while EURUSD barely changes. At another time, the euro falls while sterling rises, leaving traders who are focused on the dollar searching for an explanation.
One place to look is the currency crosses.
AUDUSD DAILY: Weekly whipsaw
AUDUSD trying for a breakout to the upside following last week’s outside week to the downside.
While .7000 is likely most important in keeping a strong bid, .7013+ is needed to maintain a breakout.
Looking for a driver, look at AUD crosses, not just EURAUD but AUDJPY as well.
GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Path of least resistance
Supported by a weaker EURGBP, GBPUSD would need to establish 1.3400+ as support to open a void to 1.35+ (high 1.3409).
If not, potential for a lower top that needs to hold 1.3362 to avoid some down momentum although only sub-1.3298 would negate the risk to the upside.
Note market following the path of least resistance by selling EURGBP.
Worth a read after another attempt by markets at a “Hope Trade” today
Hope Is Not a Trading Strategy: Understanding Hope Trades
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: 5 days in a row
Some hope for the bulls with a higher low that would need to take out 7765, currently protected by 7727, to break momentum and shift the focus from 7700 (printed 5 days in a row).
Otherwise, consolidating in wide range 7631-7765 where the pattern around 7700 bears watching.
Forex Market Update: EUR crosses (
EUR is up modestly vs. the USD but down again on its crosses, most notably vs. the GBP (note French vs. German 10 year bond spread widens to 154bps).
Takeaway, Market is having more difficulty absorbing the USD sell side of the cross flows, most notably in GBPUSD (buying).
