[Belgrade Bobby]

S&P 500 – SPX Technicals

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Technicals

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia Corporation – NVDA Technicals

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

Supports: 1.15000, 1.14900 & 1.14650  As long as Above 1.14650  EUR is Bullish, and Close above 1.15650 would call for immediate attack of 1.16250

[Mtl JP]

ehhmmm #2

Diesel desperation is mounting globally – Ben Geman, axios

… The bottom line: “The situation is not going away anytime soon and could very well get more expensive,” Mizuho Securities analyst Robert Yawger said in a note.

“Ukrainian drone production has been increasing exponentially, with Russian energy infrastructure a prime target,” he writes.
“Unless there are big breakthroughs in the peace process around both conflicts, large amounts of diesel will remain shut in.”

Potential new trading opportunities if:
Maybe diesel (and derivatives) will get not only higher price but also rationed ?
Trading theme: frugality

[Mtl JP]

ehhmmm:

The 60-day negotiating period for the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding began on June 18, 2026, meaning it was scheduled to expire on August 17, 2026. – cnn

july 8th Prez DT declared the MOU over and dead.

[Mtl JP]

dingi dingi ding exactly what is it that the IEA is saying ?
economic (global ?) recession … depression … ???

Hormuz closure squeezes global economy as oil demand destruction intensifies, IEA says By Jenni Reid, cnbc

The IEA expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 as high fuel prices and Strait of Hormuz disruptions weigh on consumption. .. . .. The International Monetary Fund has cut its annual economic growth forecast to 3% from 3.3% since the outbreak of the Iran war in February, with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva saying earlier this year that “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth.”

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 2

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 1

[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 buyers 📈 are happy & we’re aiming for 4455.00 🎯

CoreCPi manupilated seller 📉 1st

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Forex

USD trading soft but so far with limited follow through as it seems to be following a dip in US yields, specifcally the shorter-end despite CPI coming in as per the consensus. Ranges/key levels are still intact with ones to watch:

• EURUSD 1.1580 (top of range) and 1.,1550 as a market pivoit
• USDJPY 158.42 recent low)
• GBPPUSD 1.3550 (next target)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR:  Still consolidating

Trend: Major Up

Momentum: Consolidating

Lagging NAS100 as it continues to consolidate (with a bid) in a 7700-7800 range, needing to break the upper end for a fresh leg up.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR Keeping a bid

Trend  Short-Term up

Momentum: Trying to build momentum

Keeping a bid following CPI with some relief it came in as expected.

No change to a bid bias while above 29K, stronger if above 29500 with 30K still the obstacle to building further momentum.

[Mtl JP]

[GVI Forex 2]

CPI in lione with consensus

US Core CPI (Jul YY) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%)

US Core CPI (Jul MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: CRWV, SMCI, LITE, HRB, ORCL, NBIS, GAP

ES +0.3% NQ +0.7% RTY +0.3%

(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 found support above 4400.00

Now we’re waiting to see 👀 if Gold could📈 hit 4455.00 or back 📉 below 4355.00

[Adam Global]

Oil 🛢 back below $85/🛢 as 🇵🇰 is in talk with 🇮🇷 but Iran says no more talk until 🇺🇲 removes the blockade ⛵️

[Adam Global]

EURUSD 📉 ranging down below 1.15500 & waiting ✋️ for CoreCPI for more bullish 📈 or more bearish 📉

[Mtl JP]

Heading into CPI – yields, dollar , equities

[Adam Global]

USDJPY plateaued after its swift pivot above its 200-day EMA reached the 159.30 region earlier this week. Unless US and Japanese officials intervene again to support📉 the yen, the pair could extend its recovery phase, which started at the lower boundary of a bullish📈 channel. Yet, for a more sustainable rally traders may seek a confirmation signal 📈above the psychological 160 level

[GVI Forex 2]

It’s inflation day stateside and an important moment for Federal Reserve thinking, not to mention for nervy bond markets.

To be fair, the consumer price report only makes for one of three big “inflation days” each month. Tomorrow will bring the producer price update, while the Fed’s favoured PCE gauge will come later in the month. But CPI will start to form the picture…. Full story on Reuters Morning Bid U.S.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yeilds pre-CPI

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HGUR: What caught my eye

Sudden spike down through this week’s low paused above 158.42, the low following the last sudden spike down… was it the BoJ or thin pre-CPI trading (seems like the latter)

Pause below 159.50 = 50% of 163.94 – 155.22 (was it the BoJ protecting a run back to 160?)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 12th August 2026

(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Watch 1.35

Looking to establish 1.3500, which traded today for the 4th day in a row, as support to build momentum for a run at a 1.3550 target.

So far, a 1.3530 double top stands in the way.

Note a softer EURGBP is currently providing some support for GBPUSD while keeping a cap on EURUSD.

GBPCHF (firmer) has been an outperformer, perhaps reflecting some switching in funding currencies from JPY (USDJPY has dipped) to CHF.,

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil update

IEA OMR: Oil Market in a 1.8mln bpd deficit in Q3 (prev. forecast 800k bpd), Sees World Oil Supply 1.27mln bpd lower than demand in 2026 (prev. 860k bpd)

2026 world oil supply to fall by 4.3mln BPD (prev. 3.7mln fall).

Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting. >Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

XBRUSD (BRENT OIL) 4 HOUR (consolidating ahead of CPI and next ME headline)

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR – Waiting for CPI

Trend: Up

Momentum: UP

XAUUSD continues to shrug off headwinds from firm bond yields *but currently ticking lower), higher oil prices, mixed US Dollar, and some profit-taking pre-CPI as it tests 4400+ for the 2nd day in a row.

Key levels:

4435 (Tuesday high), firm break needed to put 4450 and 4500+ on the radar.

4313: Key to keeping current momentum pointed up.

4356 (minor): Keeps focus non 4400 and away from 4313.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR – Watch 1.1550

1.1500 was Monday’s support, Tuesday’s resistance and the level to watch post-US CPI as it will likely set the intra-day tone for the USD although only a move outside of 1.1500-80 would break its current range.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

All eyes will be on US CPI as traders hope a miss or beat will spark a break of tight ranges seen ahead of the data.

If you asked me what outcome would trigger the greater reaction I would say a hotter CPI reading given a tick down in bond yields ahead of the data.

In any case, look for volatility on any deviation, no matter how small,  from the consensus (watch the core reading), which would be a welcome distraction from Middle East headline watching.

[Author]

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