[GVI Forex 2]

March ECB meeting preview: Focus on the forecasts

At the ECB’s January meeting, there was a unanimous decision to leave key interest rates on hold and forecasters anticipate the same neutral outcome this week. Thursday’s announcement is widely expected to leave the deposit rate at its 4.0 percent record high while the refi rate stays at 4.50 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility at 4.75 percent. However, recent comments from Governing Council (GC) members show a widening split over how soon key rates should be lowered. For now, most would seem to prefer to wait for more data, crucially on underlying inflation and wages, but the more dovish policymakers are clearly eyeing a cut sooner rather than later. Just a couple of weeks ago, Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras was calling for a move no later than June despite policy supposedly being data dependent. Still, such disagreements are only to be expected as a major shift in policy approaches and, to this end, investors will be watching especially closely the bank’s updated inflation forecast for clues about how far rates might be lowered in 2024…

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

It is going to be a pleasure watching what they gonna do tomorrow, when those ECB pretenders disappoint them Frank 🙂

[Swiss Frank]

One might think the € would seek a more neutral price going into ecb all things considered…

[SF Monedge]

Same with UsdChf, no follow through.  Out flat, decent gain from lower.  Dxy not being very aggressive at present.  Can always re-enter either way.

[SF Monedge]

UsdCad not liking the December highs around 3618 so I’m out flat with a small gain averaging of 3505 entry and touchy price activity trying in the 3520+ area.  Going to let this run its course.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4-HOUR CHART: AUDUSD the  outperformer in a weak USD day

Note the 2 red lines drawn off the low. It is our Directional Indicator indicating a potential shift in risk to the upside that has played out.

.6595 = key res, .6581 res so far holding ahead of it.

The way I look at charts .6535 needs to hold to keep the risk pointed up.

[SF Monedge]

JP – one would think!  As long as they keep liberal arts out of it, but it doesn’t go that way in places like Berkely Univ.  My belief is 1 hour field trips into the worst banks in one’s locale would be more of a lesson in one day than 10 semesters of politically slanted blab mixed in.  Side note – I think ChfJpy is finished with the 170 to 171 range.  Maybe one more push in there but expecting no dice.

[Mtl JP]

monedge … “NYCB’s stock plunges 45% after report that it’s exploring a stock sale”

would this make classic university case study in extreme mismanagement ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Clear correlation day – US yields falling (4.09% 10 year)/ usd lower BUT very skittish and at the mercy of the bond market.

[SF Monedge]

NYCB halted.  No way their loan to debt ratio is under 4%.  Sounds more like 8%-12%  on a guess.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr at 12:03 PM EST: 4.09%

[SF Monedge]

Long UsdCad 3511, why not

[SF Monedge]

JP – Precisely in line with my view.  Might as well give it a shot and thus short EurUsd above the figure and long UsdChf just below 8820 with stops

[Mtl JP]

EURO … AND 10-YR … AND powell
–
question of players sentiment
is positioning and commitment changing ?

in my bottom line:
– I need to see 10-yr holding 4.10 at close
– I need to see euro’s close around 1.0890 / 1.09

[wfakhoury Amman]

[Belgrade Bobby]

Watch your 6 guys on EURUSD – this pattern calls for a blow of rally, before it stops for a bit.

[SF Monedge]

Lol – Bobby there is no way in the world that you are a sissy by any stretch of the imagination.  Lets roll

[Belgrade Bobby]

Ulcer = increased Stress – NOT fear…I ain’t some sissy you sillies 😀

[SF Monedge]

JP – I’m long UsdChf with you and have a resting buy in Usd/Cad lower toward the figure.  On the side, EurJpy is virtually guaranteed to get to 162 at least ultimately in time.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.1190

dlr lagging in reaction BUT starting to catch up as 1.0890 holding and clubbing would be enthusiasts

[Mtl JP]

powell doing justice to williams’ musing (ref below earlier post)

[Mtl JP]

powell , sofar, not dis-appointing , talking out of both corners of mouth

[Mtl JP]

EUOR 1.08906 HIGH ON MY TOY. yes yes yes!

[wfakhoury Amman]

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.1040

HOLA! monedge

[Mtl JP]

this is time colloquially referred to as separating chaff from wheat

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0888
–
puppy s trying to tickle 1.0890 Res; pricepoint for traders with trader’s nerves and ballz

[Mtl JP]

GVI 3:35 / powell s unlikely to want to rock the boat and is not likely to be overtly clear about policy prospect

be a surprise if he pulls the carpet from under his minions’ messaging that progress is being made BUT there is still more work to do — see wiliams yak below – he is likely to stay away from rate cut risks

[Mtl JP]

usdchf 8822

am long now

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4-HOUR CHART- WAITING FOR BOC BUT POWELL IS MORE IMPORTANT

Key levels are clear AT 1.3540-1.3605 => 1.3540 is also JP’s support level

Trendline and minor support is at 1.3444

[Author]

Posts