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Market Update: Cautious Friday
Cautious Friday with US bond yields up marginally and so far not following through on yesterday’;s slide.
EURUSD focus is back on 1,1550 with 1.1563-66 standing in the way of the August 1.1581 range top.
US500 taking a breather around 7800 with resistance at the new record 7817 high and keeping a bid whlle above 7773.
XBRUSD up on the day but still struggling on both sides with follow through.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR – Support holds
Trend: UP Momentum: Longer-term down, short-term up broken
Extending retreat from 4450 found support around 4313 (low 4311) to check the downside and prevent a black hole opening to 4223. To break current short=term down momentum and shift focus back to 4400, a move above 4363 would be needed. The importance of 4313 is that it needs to hold to prevent a black hole to 4223.
COMING UP: Data: German Wholesale Prices (Jul), French Inflation Final (Jul), EU GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), Trade Balance (Jun), US Retail Sales (Jul), University of Michigan Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3).
Speakers: RBA’s Bullock. Supply: Australia. Credit Rating: Fitch on the UK
US MARKET WRAP: Tech outperformance continues with yields pressured by soft PPI
SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries steepen, Crude down, Dollar flat, Gold down
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USDJPY 4 HOUR: Perfect storm?
Trend: Down Momentum: Long term down, short-term up
If you are bearish on the USD you cannot ask for a more perfect storm: weak jobs report, tame CPI and PPI, Fed rate hikes being priced out, BoJ rate hike being priced in, yet the USD has stayed resilient in the face of it. While talk will be that the BoJ/MoF do not want to see USDJPY back above 160, the key level that would raise alarms is 160.53 = key resistance and also the 61.8% FIBO (and 160.87). Key supports: 158.42-57
XAUUSD 4 HOUR – Power of 50 on both sides
Trend: UP Momentum: UP?
4450 capped the upside,4351 checked the downside in another illustration of Power of the 50 level
Brief break of 4356 would med to move below 4350 as well (low 4351) to confirm a break in momentums and indicate a top is in for now On the upside, back above 4402 would be needed to avoid a lower high and shift the focus back to 4450.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Record high on thge radar
Trend: Major Up Momentum: UP
Move above 7773 (triple top) puts the record 7793 high on the radar with 7800 looming above it as risk (up) follows US bond yields (lower). In any case, keeps a bid while above 7773, stronger if 7794 is broken and becomes support.
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: CSCO, CBRS, STUB, ARX, F
ES +0.2% NQ +0.1% RTY +0.2%
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 13th August 2026
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EURUSD 4 HOUR – August range remains intact
I remember a time when the average daily EURUSD range exceeded 100 pips but in the current environment, that would be a huge trading day
August range to date: 1.1500-80 (80 pips)
One reason for a tighter range is the impact of various cross flows. Today, for example, EURUSD is firmer, giving EURUSD some support while weighing modestly on GBPUSD so keep an eye on this cross.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR – Power of 50
Trend: UP
Momentum: UP but slowed
Those who have followed my posts have seen me point out the Power of the 50 level, which has come into play again after XAUUSD corrected after topping out yesterday at 4450.
As long as trade is above 4356 latest leg up is still intact.
COMING UP: Data: UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Trade Balance (Jun), Swedish/Spanish Inflation Final (Jul), EU Industrial Production (Jun), US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul).
Events: Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Aug).
Speakers: Fed’s Hammack, Barkin; Norges Bank’s Bache.
Supply: US. Earnings: Applied Materials, RWE, Antofagasta, Maersk.
US MARKET WRAP: Stocks gain on bullish tech earnings while CPI prints in line
SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries steepen, Crude flat, Dollar up, Gold up
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