[GVI Forex 2]

Using crosses to trade spot 101

In today’s case, the market is having more difficulty absorbing the selling of USD vs JPY than buying USD as offsets elsewhere.

Feel free to contact me if you want a further explanation.

[michael Calif]

Jay – Option Profile is our proprietary instrument at gtwo3.com.  It tracks “house” money versus player money in thr futures casino … (“house” money almost always wins it’s bets)

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WAS OUT EARLIER. HOPE OR A VIEW?

“The new emerging consensus from Wwll Street c-suite is that Powell wants to cut rates by September” according to Fox’s Gasparino.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[SF Monedge]

My note on worker productivity is for the overall, not this report which moderated.  Gbp should inevitably begin pricing in Fed rate cut in the near future and target 2800 in my view.  Price activity is the sell side this morning but the complementing issues are bid, which is why I am selling euro but trying to position long in Gbp.

[GVI Forex 2]

WHEN YOU SEE TWO CURRENCIES TRADE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS VS. THE USD YOIU CAN ASSUME THERE ARE CROSS FLOWS DRIVING THE MARKET.

NOTE TODAY USDJPY IS DOWN, AND EURUSD AND GBPUSD ARE BOTH LOWER.

As explained in the following…

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MIN CHART

It has been one way (all blue AT lines) since the bounce from yesterday’s intervention low (152.99)

It has not just been USDJPY trading down but JPY is firmer on its crosses, which has seen the uSD firm vs. the EUR and GBP.

.
‘

[SF Monedge]

I’m long Gbp 2480 which is very aggressive, likely moves further toward 2440 but locked so lets see.  If not, small tiny gain and reload deeper, or hold if it sticks.

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael, can you explain Option Control. TIA

[michael Calif]

…  Option Profile continues to to reveal buyer control of Euro futures; buy all dips (like today’s)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – 5000 oe bust?

You can look at any stock indices but the one level that will grab headlines is S&P 5000

On the US500 the key area is 4987 with 5007 and 5000 standing ahead of it.

So far this area is being protected.

Note different brokers may have different CFD price feeds, even for the same symbol.

[GVI Forex 2]

I pay attention to what Bobby says on the EURUSD. As he posted earlier, so far a good guide

Technically speaking, this does not look good for the EUR , and as we can see lower and lower Daily Highs in previous days, picture is slowly starting to get some sense…

BUT focus is mainly on the (firmer) JPY

[Mtl JP]

fwiw observation
–
DLRx on the hourly is painting a H&S formation
potential break down of the R-shoulder should be good odds play

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.70

I think dlr pops uP merit examination and assesment for a short stab.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.63
–
After jerome’s yak players are left with the suggestion that rates have likely peaked and that FEDs next rates move is likely down although not soon fault of “no conviction” level data.

Bottom line
– Dlr is now vulnerable. Move sub 105.4 would see me jump in join the slide for potential 104.50/40

imo patience , usually, brings rewards

[SF Monedge]

Labor productivity saw a slight increase which counters the slight increase in wages paid so it is creating a bit of a stalemate on the data.  Hence an initial lack of conviction in markets.  That may change as the day transpires.  I like the bid in Gbp on dips at least for now.  See dow futures trying for 38500+ inevitably.  Yields and such favor Usd overall in the bigger picture in my view so selling it is a bit of a contra-position.

[SF Monedge]

Stocks should try to hold the bid today, so far the participation is muted pre-market.  If the bid holds that helps Euro / Gbp vs Usd.

[GVI Forex 2]

US Yields ticking higher (delayed reaction to earlier data?)

[SF Monedge]

At least for today the market internals (options-futures-forwards-yields) are on the bid side in Sterling, so if that doesn’t change the right approach would be buying into intra-day selling.

[GVI Forex 2]

Big jump in Q1 unit labor costs

JObless clamps lower

Little reaction

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJOPY 4 Hour CHART

i WAS TEMPTED TO NOT EVEN POST THIS CHART AS INTERVENTIONS HAVE MADE A SHAMBLES OF IT.

However, the chart shows lower highs/lows  (blue/red  AT lines) so intervention has shifted the technicals, which is probably one goal of the BoJ.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

After FOMC and some not so clear blubber coming from the Feds, EUR is left hanging…

Because of Today’s USD Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Important EUR data, we might see continuous YoYo effects – Economic Data Calendar

Technically speaking, this does not look good for the EUR , and as we can see lower and lower Daily Highs in previous days, picture is slowly starting to get some sense…

1.06450 is the Major Support right now, and needs to be taken for a run to 1.04950

Only decisive break of 1.08350 would change this current picture.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bank of Japan data suggested on Thursday indicated that they spent between $21 billion and $24 billion on Wednesday to pull the yen low – bringing the total for the week close to $60 billion, the amount it spent during a three-day salvo in late 2022.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Anxious bond traders seem to have taken solace from the Federal Reserve’s surprisingly sharp brake on its “quantitative tightening” process on Wednesday, while the yen capitalized on an easier dollar after what seemed like the second bout of Japanese intervention this week.

Morning Bid: Fed QT taper calms the horses, yen pops again

[Mtl JP]

biden for nobel prise in economics
–
“Joe Biden calls allies India and Japan ‘xenophobic’ and says that’s why their economies are stalling”

maybe his advisor brainard whispered that to him

[Mtl JP]

Libtard and govt mouthpiece cbc has a segment “How do you get along with people whose views are very different from yours?”

Trading FX CELEBRATES sparing with NOT getting along with people whose views are very different and leveraging that sparing for profit gain.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.07 PATTERN

I am always on the lookout for patterns and one I watch is when a currency trades on both sides of a big figure (round number).

There is currently such a pattern in the EURUSD:

8 days trading on both sides of 1.07

4 closes below 1.07

3 closes above 1.07

No 2 days of consecutive closes above or below

I have found the longer a pattern like this goes on the greater risk of a directional move once it is decisively broken . So  keep an eye on this levels as an 8 day pattern like this is a long one.

Notice how your sentiment changes (feels bid or offered) when EURUSD trades above or below 1.07.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.38 TOO TOUGH?

The failure to test key resistance levels above 1.38 *3 blue AT lines) has seen a move back towards 1.37.

Key support on this chart is at 1.3673 as only below it would confirm the high for this episode is in.

[GVI Forex 2]

I read BoJ intervention was around $35 bln in the first attack.

[GVI Forex 2]

(160 THE NEW LINE IN THE SAND)

TOKYO, May 2 (Reuters) – Japan will likely keep intervening to prop up the yen until the risk of speculators triggering a free fall in the currency has been eliminated, said a former central bank official who was involved in Tokyo’s market forays a decade ago.

Yen: Ex-BOJ official predicts Japan will keep intervening

(Data dependebt)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s reassuring message following the central bank’s monetary policy meeting may not calm frazzled U.S. stock and bond investors, as uncertainty over the path of inflation intensifies the focus on upcoming data.
Analysis-Powell’s soothing tone may not be enough for inflation-spooked markets

[GVI Forex 2]

AFTER A SECOND ROUND OF INTERVENTION THIS ARTICLE IS WORTH READING

Currency Intervention and Why the JPY is Called : “The Devil”</a>

Currency Intervention and Why the JPY is Called : “The Devil”</a>

[Author]

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