[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Back above 2300

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After a brief run below 2300 XAUUSD is back above it.

As you can tell by this chart 2352 remains a key level on top.

With its record high far away, 2300 will likely set its tone with a break of 2352 needed to shift the focus back towards 2400.

Keep an eye on BTC 60000 to see if it follows XAUUSD’s lead.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Thursday Economic Data Calendar

 

[michael Calif]

Apr 29, 11:41pm  …  “Option Profile has confirmed a significant low in nearby Yen futures which equates to a top in USDJPY”

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – THE EMPIRE STRIKES AGAIN

The BoJ is taking a risk of overplaying its hand by presumably slamming the market at its thinnest hour.

With that said, it is a warning to be on guard but unless it can get USDJPY below 155 (low on this round was 152.99, last at 155.10) it risks only restoring a two-way risk, not reversing it.

Technically, there is a lower top and a lower bottom so some damage done but still an aftershock unless sub-155 is established.

[SF Monedge]

Note regarding the Eur crosses.  EurUsd and EurGbp could catch a sticky bid in coming days which runs contra to the other two noted pairs of course.  That runs contra to the other two crosses, indicating that there is a lag between more dominant cycles changing in one of the two groups.

[Mtl JP]

according to bbrg
–
Treasuries Rally With Fed Not as Hawkish as Feared: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market surged as Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of rate hikes and the Federal Reserve said it will shrink its balance sheet at a slower pace to ease strains in money markets.

[SF Monedge]

Selling EurChf in the 9820-30 area has decent R/R similar to EurCad I believe.

[SF Monedge]

Short EurCad has decent R/R.  No guarantee ever but the probabilities are in favor.

[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ intervention? Gets big bang for its buck when market is thin.

[GVI Forex 2]

More like a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction or relief he was not overly hawkish (said no rate hikes).

[Mtl JP]

I disagree w/jerome that strong labour market is good news

[Mtl JP]

wondering how algo would interpret say something like “foreseeable”

[SF Monedge]

Internals on US stocks are positive but not emphatically.  Would call it hanging in there so far.  Bid/Ask volume is muted interestingly.

[Mtl JP]

no change

[SF Monedge]

The expectation – no change by the Fed.  The strength – USD overall.  The economy – signs of weakness appearing of late.  My belief is initially stocks and Euro won’t behave well but likely pull up post-Fed after a great deal of volatility and reluctantly continue to find buyer interest into next week.  In my book 0685 Euro  has to clear and hold for bids to find daylight that sticks.

[Mtl JP]

from nurse jeff cox
…” could be months — or even longer”…
talking about how long FED could be keeping rate between 5.25%-5.5%

now I am not sure I undersdand what “even longer” than “months” means. You ?
tia

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/heres-everything-to-expect-when-the-fed-wraps-up-its-meeting-wednesday.html

[Mtl JP]

Banking 102
– pay attention peasant:

“If a failing bank is insured by the FDIC, all depositors will be paid “up to at least $250,000 per depositor, per FDIC-insured bank, per ownership category.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/why-hundreds-of-us-banks-may-be-at-risk-of-failure.html

[Mtl JP]

if Powell is less hawkish players might start to think the man has lost a gear

and price a mistake by the FED

[GVI Forex 2]

Another case of looking bid in an offered market.

It took hours to see some pre-FOMC position squaring in what is still yawn ranges.

Only surprise would be if Powell is less hawkish.

[SF Monedge]

Selling Usd light if it hits 106.30 ahead of Fed.  Intra-day only and maybe not for long.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 106.07
–
As I expected dlr upside is wishi-washi ahead of FED at 14:00hrs and jerome’s explenation hlf hour later

the lyrics of his song are an open secret
beyond the expected wait till more confidence builders appear , jerome will very likely NOT take a cut off the table and may even mumble something about the possibility of a hike.

All in aggregate I expect that the player collective is not likeley to be surprised by anything jerome may share which implies, in my optique, low odds of a dlr ramp up.

IF for some nebulous reason to me I the dollar pop up, I will likely be looking to fade it.

Unless of course jerome makes some very overt hawk comments

[Mtl JP]

I apologize Knez.
–
posi-pips ADD money to my trading account. (posi=pips = gain)
nega-pips reduce the money balance of my account. (nega-pips = loss)

[Ab hk]

Gold can’t blast on usd bad news, watch out

[SF Monedge]

Got out with a few and flat.  EurUsd is bid overall intra-day.  Need to see this pan out.

[SF Monedge]

I’m short EurUsd light from just above market to see if it sticks.  Intra only.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY ONE HOUR CHART – I TOLD YOIU ABOUT THE BOJ

I posted this week that the BoJ looks at the same charts and technicals as we do. I pointed out that if there was a level to defend (covertly) it would be 158 as 61.8% of 160.16-164.49 = 157.994.

The high so far today has been 157.985.

This suggests the intervention risk would increase above 158 and not below it.

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed bag for iSM… miss on the downside (sub-50) but prices rise

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI is due up next. The market has been very sensitive to any misses.

[SF Monedge]

Of note -monthly yields are up and yearly yields are down.  Says something.

[GVI Forex 2]

I have said many times that identifying the side to trade at any point in time is more than half the battle in putting on successful trades. Here is an illustration from the earlier run-up in EURUSD.

Visit The Amazing Trader

[Author]

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