[michael Calif]

…  Option Profile continues to to reveal buyer control of Euro futures; buy all dips (like today’s)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – 5000 oe bust?

You can look at any stock indices but the one level that will grab headlines is S&P 5000

On the US500 the key area is 4987 with 5007 and 5000 standing ahead of it.

So far this area is being protected.

Note different brokers may have different CFD price feeds, even for the same symbol.

[GVI Forex 2]

I pay attention to what Bobby says on the EURUSD. As he posted earlier, so far a good guide

Technically speaking, this does not look good for the EUR , and as we can see lower and lower Daily Highs in previous days, picture is slowly starting to get some sense…

BUT focus is mainly on the (firmer) JPY

[Mtl JP]

fwiw observation
–
DLRx on the hourly is painting a H&S formation
potential break down of the R-shoulder should be good odds play

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.70

I think dlr pops uP merit examination and assesment for a short stab.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.63
–
After jerome’s yak players are left with the suggestion that rates have likely peaked and that FEDs next rates move is likely down although not soon fault of “no conviction” level data.

Bottom line
– Dlr is now vulnerable. Move sub 105.4 would see me jump in join the slide for potential 104.50/40

imo patience , usually, brings rewards

[SF Monedge]

Labor productivity saw a slight increase which counters the slight increase in wages paid so it is creating a bit of a stalemate on the data.  Hence an initial lack of conviction in markets.  That may change as the day transpires.  I like the bid in Gbp on dips at least for now.  See dow futures trying for 38500+ inevitably.  Yields and such favor Usd overall in the bigger picture in my view so selling it is a bit of a contra-position.

[SF Monedge]

Stocks should try to hold the bid today, so far the participation is muted pre-market.  If the bid holds that helps Euro / Gbp vs Usd.

[GVI Forex 2]

US Yields ticking higher (delayed reaction to earlier data?)

[SF Monedge]

At least for today the market internals (options-futures-forwards-yields) are on the bid side in Sterling, so if that doesn’t change the right approach would be buying into intra-day selling.

[GVI Forex 2]

Big jump in Q1 unit labor costs

JObless clamps lower

Little reaction

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJOPY 4 Hour CHART

i WAS TEMPTED TO NOT EVEN POST THIS CHART AS INTERVENTIONS HAVE MADE A SHAMBLES OF IT.

However, the chart shows lower highs/lows  (blue/red  AT lines) so intervention has shifted the technicals, which is probably one goal of the BoJ.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

After FOMC and some not so clear blubber coming from the Feds, EUR is left hanging…

Because of Today’s USD Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Important EUR data, we might see continuous YoYo effects – Economic Data Calendar

Technically speaking, this does not look good for the EUR , and as we can see lower and lower Daily Highs in previous days, picture is slowly starting to get some sense…

1.06450 is the Major Support right now, and needs to be taken for a run to 1.04950

Only decisive break of 1.08350 would change this current picture.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bank of Japan data suggested on Thursday indicated that they spent between $21 billion and $24 billion on Wednesday to pull the yen low – bringing the total for the week close to $60 billion, the amount it spent during a three-day salvo in late 2022.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Anxious bond traders seem to have taken solace from the Federal Reserve’s surprisingly sharp brake on its “quantitative tightening” process on Wednesday, while the yen capitalized on an easier dollar after what seemed like the second bout of Japanese intervention this week.

Morning Bid: Fed QT taper calms the horses, yen pops again

[Mtl JP]

biden for nobel prise in economics
–
“Joe Biden calls allies India and Japan ‘xenophobic’ and says that’s why their economies are stalling”

maybe his advisor brainard whispered that to him

[Mtl JP]

Libtard and govt mouthpiece cbc has a segment “How do you get along with people whose views are very different from yours?”

Trading FX CELEBRATES sparing with NOT getting along with people whose views are very different and leveraging that sparing for profit gain.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.07 PATTERN

I am always on the lookout for patterns and one I watch is when a currency trades on both sides of a big figure (round number).

There is currently such a pattern in the EURUSD:

8 days trading on both sides of 1.07

4 closes below 1.07

3 closes above 1.07

No 2 days of consecutive closes above or below

I have found the longer a pattern like this goes on the greater risk of a directional move once it is decisively broken . So  keep an eye on this levels as an 8 day pattern like this is a long one.

Notice how your sentiment changes (feels bid or offered) when EURUSD trades above or below 1.07.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.38 TOO TOUGH?

The failure to test key resistance levels above 1.38 *3 blue AT lines) has seen a move back towards 1.37.

Key support on this chart is at 1.3673 as only below it would confirm the high for this episode is in.

[GVI Forex 2]

I read BoJ intervention was around $35 bln in the first attack.

[GVI Forex 2]

(160 THE NEW LINE IN THE SAND)

TOKYO, May 2 (Reuters) – Japan will likely keep intervening to prop up the yen until the risk of speculators triggering a free fall in the currency has been eliminated, said a former central bank official who was involved in Tokyo’s market forays a decade ago.

Yen: Ex-BOJ official predicts Japan will keep intervening

(Data dependebt)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s reassuring message following the central bank’s monetary policy meeting may not calm frazzled U.S. stock and bond investors, as uncertainty over the path of inflation intensifies the focus on upcoming data.
Analysis-Powell’s soothing tone may not be enough for inflation-spooked markets

[GVI Forex 2]

AFTER A SECOND ROUND OF INTERVENTION THIS ARTICLE IS WORTH READING

Currency Intervention and Why the JPY is Called : “The Devil”</a>

Currency Intervention and Why the JPY is Called : “The Devil”</a>

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Back above 2300

\

After a brief run below 2300 XAUUSD is back above it.

As you can tell by this chart 2352 remains a key level on top.

With its record high far away, 2300 will likely set its tone with a break of 2352 needed to shift the focus back towards 2400.

Keep an eye on BTC 60000 to see if it follows XAUUSD’s lead.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Thursday Economic Data Calendar

 

[michael Calif]

Apr 29, 11:41pm  …  “Option Profile has confirmed a significant low in nearby Yen futures which equates to a top in USDJPY”

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – THE EMPIRE STRIKES AGAIN

The BoJ is taking a risk of overplaying its hand by presumably slamming the market at its thinnest hour.

With that said, it is a warning to be on guard but unless it can get USDJPY below 155 (low on this round was 152.99, last at 155.10) it risks only restoring a two-way risk, not reversing it.

Technically, there is a lower top and a lower bottom so some damage done but still an aftershock unless sub-155 is established.

[SF Monedge]

Note regarding the Eur crosses.  EurUsd and EurGbp could catch a sticky bid in coming days which runs contra to the other two noted pairs of course.  That runs contra to the other two crosses, indicating that there is a lag between more dominant cycles changing in one of the two groups.

[Mtl JP]

according to bbrg
–
Treasuries Rally With Fed Not as Hawkish as Feared: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market surged as Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of rate hikes and the Federal Reserve said it will shrink its balance sheet at a slower pace to ease strains in money markets.

[SF Monedge]

Selling EurChf in the 9820-30 area has decent R/R similar to EurCad I believe.

[SF Monedge]

Short EurCad has decent R/R.  No guarantee ever but the probabilities are in favor.

[Author]

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