[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

There seems little choice but to trade defensively ahead of the week end, month/quarter end on Tuesday and a holiday shortened week ahead of the Easter break in what remains a headline (and oil) driven market.

This has seen firmer oil set a modest risk off tone and the dollar trade mixed to a touch firmer (except vs a lagging AUD and NZD).

• EURUSD: Trading within 1.1500-50, downside more exposed while below 1.1550 but contained while above 1.15. Key supports lie below 1.15. (1.1484, 1.1442, 1.1410)
• USDJPY: Trades firm but still yet to crack 160 (BoJ?)
• GBPUSD: Keeping pace with EURUSD. Key support is nit until 1.3234.
• USDCAD: Keeping a bid while above 1.38. Tight range 1.3835-65. So far not benefiting from firmer oil
• AUDUSD: Remains on the defensive but ckagging today and onsolidating within a .6870-.6920

[Mtl JP]

The next BET, after Asia puke, puke in London and a rocket in Brent

is on US S&P500 (bottom right pannel)

[Mtl JP]

just screaming.  see where it ends by NY close

[Mtl JP]

Note on Times of Israel
8min ago
Iran warns it will attack hotels in region housing US soldiers”

maybe refering to the earlier NYT report

[Mtl JP]

Old news, new news … ??

WSJ – Live March 27, 2026 at 12:31am ET
Pentagon Weighs Sending 10,000 More Ground Troops to the Middle East
…”The additional forces would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, supplementing approximately 5,000 Marines and paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division already deployed. These troops would join over 50,000 U.S. service members currently stationed across the region as part of Operation Epic Fury. While exact locations remain unclear, the new forces are expected to be positioned within striking distance of Iran and Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub.” …/.

For perspective
New York Times – By Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt
Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely
Iran has severely damaged several American military bases in the Middle East, officials say.
…”So now much of the land-based military is, in essence, fighting the war while working remotely, with the exception of fighter pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has urged people to report these new locations as it hunts for the dispersed troops.” … . … There were close to 40,000 U.S. troops in the region when the war started, and Central Command has dispersed thousands of them, some to as far away as Europe, American military officials said. But many have remained in the Middle East, although not on their original bases, military officials said.

The result, according to current and former military officials, is a war that is much harder to prosecute. …/..

[Mtl JP]

It is a rinse repeat idea
worked last Asia session

additional qtn is …
who wants to be long equities into and over the weekend

[Mtl JP]

Trade Idea
–
Asia comming on board …
nikkei priceaction dynamic could, with prudence, be used as
leading indicator for oil price s/term dynamic

I am biased:
favour looking for nikkei down hinting at brent uP

ps / risk management your responsability

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Officially Pattern wise EUR turned into daily Sell mode.

Resistances are at: 1.15400, 1.15550 & 1.15750

Supports: 1.15200, 1.15050 & 1.14850

1.13200 should be the target of this down move and depending if it holds or not we’ll be able to see the bigger picture.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia Corporation stocks – NVDA

Nvidia just above 171.00 – very important support that separates it from entering lower channel with lower level at 99.75

There are many support levels of course, like 153.00, but strong Bullish sentiment would be lost and we are talking months if not years for Nvidia to return to current levels.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD Weekly

XRP has one more day to try and move above 1.40 or risk cementing the existing downtrend.

If it continues falling and 1.1180 lost, road would be open for 0.57

Supports: 1.3215, 1.2700 & 1.1180

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Weekly

74.430 remains as a deal breaker for Bulls…

Close tonight below 68.000 would be Bearish for tomorrow.

If BTC closes above 68 K tonight, possibility of further gains would be in line, but only if 72 K taken out we can expect another attempt at 74.430

[GV World]

Nikkei 225 (1HR)

The Nikkei 225 opened on an optimistic note on hopes of tension easing but later closed on a negative note. The Nikkei 225 declined by 0.27% to 53,603.65. Later on, the Nikkei 225 declined further by 440 points (-0.82%), closing near 53,310.

 

[GV World]

NZDUSD (1HR)

The kiwi dollar is under bearish pressure and is continuing to trend downwards through all major moving averages and in an overall descending pattern. Price has clearly broken through a major support area and is only experiencing a weak retrace on the downside.

Immediate support and resistance at 0.5750 and 0.5820

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

• Just a pause so far.
• Held a test of 23561 (low 23560), the 10% correction level and now a double bottom.
• To slow the risk, 24000+ is needed at a minimum. To neutralize it, 24332 would need to be regained as well.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GV World]

AUDUSD (1HR)

The Australian dollar has confirmed a stronger bearish move on the 1H chart after breaking below the key 0.6900 support zone. Price is now trading beneath all major moving averages and remains capped by a descending trendline, indicating sustained downside pressure.

Supports and resistance can be seen at 0.6850 and 0.6950.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Getting a late reprieve after President Trump extended the deadline to attack Iran power plants for 10 days.
• This postpones but does not negate the threat to the 6435 low. For that to happen, 6575, the key level posted here earlier that held dead on (and see what happened afterward), would need to be broken.
• In the meantime, 6500 should be pivotal in setting the trading tone.
• Range on this chart 6435/70 -6540/75

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

Brent quote (CFD) on my toy
just went from 107.5 to 103 inside the 5 min bar

now recovered 107.25 as I type

[GVI Forex 2]

TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLE 23 TICKS LOWER AT 110-05+

Analysis Details: T-notes lower as geopolitical uncertainty keeps oil prices higher, seeing participants add to Fed rate hike bets. At settlement, 2-year +10.7bps at 3.994%, 3-year +11.8bps at 4.001%, 5-year +12.6bps at 4.103%, 7-year +10.9bps at 4.260%, 10-year +9.2bps at 4.424%, 20-year +5.9bps at 4.974%, 30-year +3.4bps at 4.936%….

: See full report…Try Newsuawk free for 7 days

Higher US bond yields supporting the USD and weighing on stocks

[Mtl JP]

with reference to cook’s and miran’s yikyaks

The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it
By Steve H. Hanke and David M. Walker
FORTUNE March 23, 2026

$6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025

What $136 Trillion Looks Like in Your Living Room:
Most people cannot relate to trillion-dollar figures on a government ledger. So consider this: divide every number by 100 million — drop eight zeros — and federal finances look like a household budget in freefall.

That household earns $52,446 and spends $73,378 — running a $20,932 annual deficit. Its total liabilities and unfunded promises amount to $1,361,788 against just $60,554 in assets, leaving it $1.3 million in the hole. Uncle Sam, by any accounting standard, is insolvent.

[Mtl JP]

Oi yo yoy …
does anybody care ?
–
on deck:
16:00 cook on “Financial Stability”
18:30 miran on “Balance Sheet” (this one should be humorous)
19:00 jefferson on “US Economy”
19:10 barr “Moderated Conversation”

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to hover around the critical $70,000 level, leaving traders divided. Is this a sign of underlying strength, or is Bitcoin simply appearing strong within a broader bearish trend?

This debate can be summed up with a classic trading concept: is the market truly “bid,” or just “feeling bid in an offered market”?

Understanding this distinction could help traders avoid costly mistakes, especially in today’s volatile crypto environment.

Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”?

[GVI Forex 2]

• Defense rather than offense remains the order of the day as risk off takes over after an early US stock market rally ran out of steam.
• USD remains firm, AUD and NZD underperforming, EURUSD failure to regain 1.1550 keeps it on the defensive.
• US500 held dead on at 6575 (scroll below for earlier update), keeping it on the defensive as well
• XAUUSD on the defensive while below 4500.
• Crude oil remains firm, so far keeping other markets on edge.
• News algos, meanwhile, continue to have a field day jerking markets around on headline news.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

]XTIUSD (WTIUSD) UPDATE

Back on the difference but needs to end thoughts of a retracement

• What matters in this headline driven volatile market are the extreme levels at 85.08 and 102.31, which shows 95.67 as the 61.8% FIBO. High so far 95.62
• In the absence of any key nearby resistance, a break of this level would put to rest any thoughts that the bounce off the low is a retracement.

XTIUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• NAS100 is on the defensive but hostage to headlines (and oil) and remains within 23500-24500 where 24000 is the battle line and bias setter.
• Expect more chop and limited follow through until either side is broken with greqater risk on downside while the upoper end holds.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Pause above 6525 so far checking the downside but would need to break the trendline and 6575 to negate the risk and shift the focus back to 6600.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

the ying yang ?
–

[Mtl JP]

Futures 101
–
The oil market is in ‘backwardation’ — Here’s what that means for energy prices – By Chloe Taylor, cnbc

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 2

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 1

[Mtl JP]

new betting opportunity:

What comes next? Three attack scenarios as U.S. sends thousands more troops to Middle East By Sam Meredith, cnbc

WTI $94; Brent: $107.2
US 10-YR 4.376% +0.048

[Author]

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