[SF Monedge]

JP – I wouldn’t touch it until 40 or lower, yields have been very decoupled with DX of late as well.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.11% LoD 4.09

misery or opportunity ?

[SF Monedge]

July 31, 2024 at 4:33 pm – Bobby, for you I will invent the Dcam indicator (Darn Convergence Accumulation Meter) !

Side note, I very much like your view on Euro.  Therefore I already have multiple staged and hedged orders especially at 10720 and 10680.  For me it is more about how you trade vs prognostication, which is what analysts are paid for.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

If there wasn’t for the FOMC tonight , I would gladly say – 1.06850 here we come…

So let’s say it this way – Close below 1.08200 tonight would be calling for it.

Only Close above 1.08400 would negate this bearish sentiment.

p.s. Monedge – my Pattern/macd combination can do that – every day, 5 days a week 😛

[SF Monedge]

One last thing and I will concede to the forum and stop hogging it until after the Moscow Fed –

Here is a small example of what I mean by being able to visualize the market – that little contra-flow Canadian Dollar trade I made earlier where I bought into a selling market?  I filled at one HALF pip above the low and made 25.

Your accountant can’t do that.  Your guru subscription can’t do that.  Your Macd can’t do that.

[SF Monedge]

As Jay pointed out and since we have 3 hours to kill before the Moscow Fed Announcement, I have a suggestion for novice traders from spending light years of time on technical analysis and drawing lines as both a normal person and an investment firm executive.  You don’t need indicators.  You can get to a point where you can simply see without them and you know how to play ball at a high level.  Not many get there.  You have to really want it.

That said –

Investors want structure and reasons why you allocate if they are to give you the tools to work with.  They leave little room for pure absolute skill because they don’t understand it.  A bit like an accountant who explains how to be an athlete where the numbers simply do not reflect some things.

So if you are going to secure funds you need a conservative and structured approach which includes a defined process of analysis and risk allocation.  Regulatory bodies want it that way as well.  Your indicators give you something to talk about, but it always comes down to what your “margin at risk ratio” is, which is how much you allocate at any given time from the total portfolio based on those defined parameters.  The going rule has been if you go over 4% you are frowned upon as being a “maverick.”

[SF Monedge]

The way I expect Canadian to go is another try for 3900 which doesn’t sustain, followed by a proper rebalancing toward 3700, followed by a return speculatory venture toward 3800, and a crescendo toward 3650ish.  The “ish” is vital.  Its all about the Gamma Ray JP, all about the Gamma Ray.

[GVI Forex 2]

power of 50

eurusd last at 1.0824 vs. a high at 1.08495

HIDDEN HAND (BOJ?)

USDJPY is back above 150 after a low at 149.63

3 HOURS UNTIL FOMC TIME

[SF Monedge]

JP: at 2:56 pm

Yes.  The Handy Dandy Gamma Ray Technical Analysis Auto Line Drawing AI Crypto Killer.  With a moving average of … Itself.  Which automatically draws … lines.

I invented while listening to the old rock band Gamma, featuring Ronnie Montrose.

Never fails.

[SF Monedge]

Agreed, likely 3850 starts having issues and we see 3700ish in coming days barring the unusual one might think.  (re: JP // at 2:27 pm)

[Mtl JP]

“orders, order flows”

is that some sort of futuristic (out-of-earth) gamma ray machine for gaming earthly theories and experiments ?

[SF Monedge]

Trying out the buy side of UsdCad in the 80’s here for small gains only.  See the tide turning to the sell side overall in time in coming days.  Fundamentals support the idea, flows are not necessarily exactly when you want them.  Internals (forwards, options, futures, rates, orders, order flows, percents and the rest) are heavily stacked against Canadian Dollar itself overall at present.

[Mtl JP]

I do like some FIB lines off the daily tho

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3790
–
fwiw I do not give much weight to todays Pivot pricepoint
just a personal preference

[Mtl JP]

SF 1:48 // USDCAD 1.3805

this puppy has potential for deepah under 1.3795
puppy has had a rather unusual strong run over last 10 days or so
so a good correction back to a more balanced relationship between canada / us can not be ruled out

fwiw, g/l

[SF Monedge]

I would like to see AudUsd 6450 or lower to provide an opportunity to load up on the buy side for 6650.  That pair and Gold have stable fundamentals.  People thought I was far fetched a month ago when UsdJpy was in pure buy mode and I said we would hit 153 or even 150 in coming weeks.  Are we there yet?

[SF Monedge]

Expecting absolutely nothing from The Moscow Fed so I have been buying UsdCad approaching the figure and below.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0844 (1.0848 hOd SOFAR)

N of its 200dma gives it slight bull tone
needs to close N of 1.0855 for a chance at 1.0875 / 1.0925

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3811

currently confirming USD’s limited upside

[SF Monedge]

Mixed internals across the board but it appears Euro will sell on the data at least initially.  Hard call.

[Mtl JP]

then there is the odd-ball chance that jerome will somehow be less than forthcoming about an imminent rate cut.

seeing how the market is wound up in its expectation for jerome going from yellow to green light about a cut, anything wobbly , hesistant or “prudent” could result in player – awww – disappointment

and be a dandy profit-juicing opportunity

[Mtl JP]

to game FOMC

actually there is more:
they will game each other
in a way players will settle the differences in their opinions about hike / no hike / if n when

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.

Morning Bid: BOJ hikes with Fed ahead, Big Tech flubs

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.

Morning Bid: BOJ hikes with Fed ahead, Big Tech flubs

[Mtl JP]

Officials were burned earlier this year by hotter inflation, but new risks to the labor market have helped rebuild the groundwork for cuts.
Nick Timiraos
July 30, 2024
The Outlook
Inflation and labor-market developments should allow Federal Reserve officials this week to signal that a cut is very possible at their next meeting, in September.

here is jeff with his nickle’s worth:
Here’s everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday

***
Ps / Jerome holds a press conf after FOMC’s deed

[Mtl JP]

This yield curve-fueled recession indicator from the Fed shows a 70% probability of a recession. Here’s what its author says.

One model used at the Fed was written in 2006. Titled “the yield curve and predicting recessions,” the paper calculates recession probabilities over the next 12 months using just three variables: the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, the 3 month yield BX:TMUBMUSD03Mand the current federal funds rate. Right now, that indicator points to a 70% probability of a recession.

[Mtl JP]

BoJ hiked
Yen rebound / ed
that’s it for first leg

now the fearful and greedy players wait to game FOMC
coming up later today

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.08 HOLDS

Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, which was higher than expected.

The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, easing slightly from June’s 4.1% reading.(source: CNBC)

Chart shows the bounce from just below 1.08 would need to take out 1.0835-44 to puit the neutral 1.0850 level in play again.

Logic says to expect support while above 1.08 but beware of month end erratics.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 150.90

150,00 defended on first run at it,

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – STOCKS UP AHEAD OF FOMC

 

Using a CFD feed so levels may differ from other synbols (e.g. SPX500) or even a the same symbol with a different broker.

So look at 5500 as a pivoital level with a void of almost 100 pts above it.

Expect support below the market ahead of the FOMC.

Key event is FOMC, also month end flows.

[Author]

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