[GVI Forex 2]

Link fixed in Weekly FX Outlook (see below)

Note, EURUSD held test of 1.1050

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – SUPPORT BROKEN

As I pointed out in the Weekly Outlook, 146.05 was the key level on the downside and USDJPY smashed through it (145.18 low) but so far has not established below it.

At a minimum, this confirms the move up to 149.39 was  a retracement but if this leads to consolidation, then look for 145.148 to be a potential range.,

[GVI Forex 2]

WEEKLY FX CHART OUTLOOK EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

With XAUUSD topping 2500 to set a new record high on Friday, the question is whether this is a speculative bubble or is there more to the surge in the precious metal?

What is the Surge in Gold Saying About the US Dollar?

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Week ahead:

With markets hooked on US data, the calendar is quiet until Thursday-Friday with the highlight being Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. After the last batch of US data *retail sales, weekly jobless claims), expectations have taken a 50bpo rate cut in Sept off the table and are looking for a 25bp cut. Key data event will be the August employment report in early September.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead 19th-23rd August 2024: Highlights include Jackson Hole, FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes, Canadian and Japanese CPI, and Flash PMI data

[Mtl JP]

Of too late of fear of debt

53 Min Ago Mom co-signed daughter’s student loan. Now 85, she fears lender may take her house – cnbc

[GVI Forex 2]

`BTC DAILY CHART – WILL BTC JOIN THE PARTY?

With Gold setting a record high, will BTC follow suit and join the party?

With the low seemingly in place, the only level that matters to me is 65602 as a firm break would be needed to put 70K in play again.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – 2500!

 

Only level that matters is 2500 after a new record high at 2509 as it trades in unchartered waters.

Support zone us 2480-00, strongest bid if 2500 becomes support,

Resistance is at the most recent high with nothing on charts otherwise.

‘

[SF Monedge]

JP – Ok then all we need to do is tax every worker to cover the cost of making chocolate free for everyone and vast problems are solved.  Easy plot dot.  Just following woke economic principals.

[Mtl JP]

SF 3:01 – If you have habits without which you cannot get through your day I, the uglier than ugly guy at sold many gaffs, intentionally and eagerly, with no feminine side nor an inner child, truthfully honestly un-apologically, am on stand-by to …. ….

take full advantage

psst / according to FRED “Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees”

july 2024: $30.14/hr vs marsbar $1.25
july 1969: $3.22/hr vs marsbar $0.10

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD is following with a lag due to a weaker EURGBP.  Otherwise USD is ending the week on the defensive as weaker tone is spreading.

[SF Monedge]

Gamma on EU puts is completely dominating calls albeit curtailing just a bit mid-session.  That and other conditions give a clear portrayal that markets are in a risk off condition headed into the weekend.

[SF Monedge]

Side note, that Goldman comment was not my opinion.  It is a fact.  I had a few good conversations about it with a former Goldman executive about it and a few others as well.  Think my comments are a joke at your own peril.

[SF Monedge]

Somewhere out there exists some really ugly guy in his pajamas spilling hamburger on his physically eroding carnivorous self reading my FED comment saying to himself and pointing at the screen “yeah what that guy said, its all bogus, I just want to make a buck.”

[SF Monedge]

For you JP –

The FED matters if you are position trading.  Goldman Sachs does not care about what the FED says or its dot plots other than to use it as a means to attack volatility and adjust exposure.  The reason I do not trust US government economic numbers……….

In 1969 a Mars chocolate bar cost me 10 cents at EZ Freezy Market in San Francisco and today it is $1.25, yet the production-packaging-shipping-distribution is more efficient.  This is not a supply/demand issue or a consumer confidence issue or a rate of change issue.  People want chocolate no matter what, everything is more expensive, and profit margins matter.  They can drop rates 10% and people will still gorge on chocolate.

Chocolate_1

Fed _ 0

Remaining long Usd/Jpy from lower.  Buying every reasonable pause.

[Mtl JP]

in the name of agrandissement ?

Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole bbrg

There’s plenty to address beyond next month’s interest-rate move.
claims bill dudley

[SF Monedge]

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index went straight up and is a mix of risk on sentiment and hedging at the same time this time.  Geopolitical tension, war, failing economic structures, failing political con games weigh while ever-present demand not just to keep your girlfriend from complaining but for high end defense electronic and other solid use reasons.

And then there is speculation.  Buy side internal metrics a 5 times greater than sell side this morning.

[GVI Forex 2]

To put Friday price action in perspective

While we can’t ignore today’s 1% drop in USDJPY it is still up on the week vs. last Friday’s 146.63 close

EURUSD at 1.0996 is currently unchanged on the week

[Mtl JP]

yes yes yes … one post would be enough

I guess I am letting myself be “influenced” by m bowman”s smoke signals

[GVI Forex 2]

To put Friday price action in perspective

While we css as n’t ignore today’s 1% drop in USDJPY it is still up on the week vs. last Friday’s 146.63 close

EURUSD at 1.0996 is currently unchanged on the week

[GVI Forex 2]

JP you are the only one standing on a deserted island.

A Fed 25bps cut in Sept is as close as you can get to 100%

[GVI Forex 2]

JP you are the only one standing on a deserted island.

A Fed 25bps cut in Sept is as close as you can get to 100%

[GVI Forex 2]

JP you are the only one standing on a deserted island.

A Fed 2(bps cut in Sept is as close as you can get to 100%

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 3.888% -0.038; DLRx 102.50

10:00 – U of M sentiment
13:30 – goolsbee fireside chat

[SF Monedge]

A fill at 147.55 again would be nice.

[Mtl JP]

maybe I am like an orphan rabbit:

this “will be enough to get the easing cycle going” is exactly why …

the FED does not, should not, will not be cutting.

IMO

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY is taking the lead as the flavor of the day. Scroll below to see the update and watch 148 as the ultimate bias setter.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The U.S. economy is doing just fine and markets now accept a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month will be enough to get the easing cycle going as disinflation resumes.

Morning Bid: With US economy humming, a quarter point will do

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Real money flow

As you can see by this chart, while we are not privy to the order flow, there is clearly a real money selling driving this cross lower.

ON the downside, .8500 is the obvious pivotal level with next chart support at .8478. Back Above .8531-50 would be needed to suggest the order is done.

In any case, EURGBP selling has been a contributing factor to the firmer GBPUSD and EURUSD lag.

[Author]

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