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XBRUSD (BRENT OIL) UPDATE
Seat belt trading Volatility rules
- I am not sure longer-term technical levels other than round numbers such as USD85 and USD90, for example, matter in this geopolitical crisis market.
- With that said, weekly charts show 88.60 and 92. 45 as next chart points.
- In any case, it is hard to see anyone looking to be short crude over the week end, which should keep an underlying bid, especially if it holds above USD85 barring any surprise headline
XBRUSD 1 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
- After a quiet overnight session the dollar has caught a bid as a spike in crude oil has had a ripple effect across other markets.
- EURUSD has extended its pivot around 1. 16 to 4 days in a row (currently on the defensive below it)
- USDJPY is trading bid but yet to test 158 (and the BoJ?)
- GBPUSD is following EURUSD with a slight lag
- Looking ahead, expect a defensive session with all eyes on the price of crude once US NFP is released to guard against any unexpected events in the Middle East over the weekend.
Market Update: Crude soaring, USD up, Stocls down, US bond yields up
US data: NFP (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan)) will offer a nice distraction on Friday
Nvidia to Gain from Hyperscaler Spending; U.S. Export Rules Loom
Nvidia is poised to benefit from a rise in capital spending by hyperscalers, with data center and chip investments expected to reach $670 billion in 2026, up from $410 billion in 2025.1
The U.S. government plans new rules requiring Nvidia and others to get approval for most AI chip exports, which could affect global shipments and AI facility setups overseas.23
Wedbush raised its price target for Nvidia to $300 from $230 while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating, highlighting strong sales guidance for Q1 2027 as a key point from the company’s earnings call.
AMD shares up 5.7% on strong CPU demand; U.S. to regulate AI chip exports
AMD shares rose 5.7% after CEO Lisa Su reported that CPU demand exceeded expectations, fueled by growth in its AI sector.1
The U.S. government plans new rules requiring Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and other chip firms to get approval for exporting AI accelerators, affecting the global AI chip market.
Bitcoin rebound appears a ‘relief rally,’ not the start of a new bullish cycle
Bitcoin’s rebound above $73,000 earlier Thursday may appear encouraging, but onchain data suggests it is more likely a short-term “relief rally” rather than the start of a new bullish cycle
Bitcoin is still inside a bear market, despite the recent price rally
Selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has also declined, helping support the recent rebound.
European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gains
The major European indices tried to continue the rebound to the upside early in the session, but stalled and reversed the sharply to the downside.
German Dax was up 161.44 points at session highs. It is closing down -431.29 points or -1.78%.
France’s CAC was up 47.28 points at session highs, is closing down -121.93 points or -1.49%.
UKs FTSE 100 was up 68.40 points at the highs. It is closing down -153.73 points or -1.45%.
Spain’s Ibex traded up 233.59 points. It is closing down -241.82 points or -1.38%
Italy FTSE MIB traded up 320.08 points. It is closing down -728.33 points are -1.61%DAX Index
Crude Oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01
Crude oil crude oil futures settle at $81.01. That’s up $6.35 or 8.51%. The gain is the largest since April 9, 2025. The high price reached $81.64. The low price was at $74.97. The price is trading at its highest level going back to July 2024.
Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir area was attacked, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets. Recently, crude oil prices showed some disconnect with the headlines. The market was less concerned thinking that damage would be minimal.
US stocks close lower but rebound into the close
Major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off the lowest levels. A late day fall in crude oil from a high of $82.16 down to the current level is $79.65 helped to shift the bias on hopes the worst has passed.
Looking at the major indices:
Dow industrial average fell 784.67 points or -1.61% at 47954.74. At session lows the index was down 1162 points.
S&P index fell -38.79 points or -0.56% at 6830.71. At session lows the index is down -98.72 points.
NASDAQ index fell -58.50 points or -0.26% at 22748.99. At session lows, the index was down -307.19 points.
Russell 2000 fell -50.43 points or -1.91% at 2585.57. At session lows, the index was down -75.01 points.Dow Jones Index
NZDUSD(1HR)
The New Zealand dollar failed to hold above $0.5940 after climbing 0.9% overnight from a low of $0.5861. It has since moved lower again, with downward pressure continuing as the currency briefly touched $0.5880.
Key support is at $0.5837, while resistance levels are at $0.5954 and $0.6012
AUDUSD(4HR)
The dollar strengthened on Thursday after briefly pulling back from its three-month highs, as the ongoing fallout from the war in the Middle East unsettled global markets and kept investor sentiment fragile, increasing demand for the safe-haven currency.
The Australian dollar has traded within a wide range this week, moving from a high of 0.713 down to a low of 0.697. It has often been used as a proxy for risk sentiment, though at times it has also received a rare safe-haven bid, supported by the country’s strong energy resources that help offset the impact of rising oil prices.
The pair is currently trading very close to the 200-period EMA. Support is located near 0.6950, while resistance stands around 0.7050.
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