[Mtl JP]

climate change — on wallstreet ?
have no fear prescient yellen s here:

$3 Trillion (per year, till 2050) to mitigate “climate change”

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a light US economic calendar after the news deluge last week. This is why the focus will be on US stocks in the week ahead after last week when…

Rotation from US stocks into US Treasuries on recession fears

Stocks fall => bond yields fall => US weakens

For the week ahead see detailed previews:

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead 5th-9th August: Highlights include ISM ServicesPMI, RBA, BoJ SoO,BoC Minutes, and Chinese inflation

[GVI Forex 2]

Nasdaq off 10% from its record high putting in in correction territory.

[michael Calif]

futures traders are Short Gold    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

I get a KICK out of some pundits screaming to kick the INTEL dog off the index

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

If it manages to close tonight above 2420.00 ( and opens on Monday as well – so without a gap ), it will have another chance to test the previous high and continues up.

However, close below 2400.00 would be quite bearish…

I have mentioned a possibility of double top day ago, and Monday will give us the answer….

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

End of week development

Support at 1.08500

Resistance at 1.09500 & 1.09650

I was asked about Bull/Bear Traps like a day ago, and here we had one…a Bear trap.

If you check weekly chart, you’ll see a very Bullish pattern creation and it should show its strength from the early beginning of the next week.

[SF Monedge]

JP – which is why I bought a super cheap stock TELL 6 months ago and mentioned it to the forum a month ago lol.  NG is a strong bet.

[Mtl JP]

another anecdote
–
“Consumer insolvencies hit 4-year high in Canada as interest rates weigh on households
On average, 386 Canadians were filing for insolvency each day in the second quarter.”

IMO not exactly alarming to banks. Yet.

[Mtl JP]

an anecdote
–
seeing headlines (by intersted parties) peddling the idea that “data centers are hungry for natural gas”
allegedly for “generating power” to support the 24/7 energy demands of hyperscalers.

[SF Monedge]

JP – regarding “analysts.”

There is a lot of interest rate discussion.  In my opinion the Mission Statement of the FED should be .. “To teach chimpanzees to see in the dark.”

[Mtl JP]

The difference between
“analysts” (After 5,000 words they will say “on the other hand.”)
and Strategists

An August stocks slump is ‘absolutely normal’ — but strategists urge caution on buying the dip
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/august-stocks-slump-strategists-urge-caution-on-buying-the-dip.html

by Sam Meredith, cnbc

[SF Monedge]

JP – “3% or more per day over a few days each are not the daily headline.”

My sentiment as well.

[michael Calif]

traders Long Euro futures looking for zig-zag move higher into Aug 23    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

The DRAMA
that , sofar, is not:

atm:
DJIA -2.23%
Nasdaq – 3.16%
SnP -2.57%

Imo still lacking drama as long as dumpings of 3% or more per day over a few days each are not the daily headline.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0922 as I type

this kitten has bounce in it atm BUT if it tries to snatch 1.0950
odds are that that would be a fleeting moment and the kitten would likely come back down a bit

[SF Monedge]

Basically I knew it would likely go this way 2 weeks ago, but the problem you face is trusting an array of metrics when they are counter to market flows.  It’s a good place to be when you can see what should transpire but it is constantly confounding to trust what the deep data in markets is showing and time your positioning precisely.  If you pay attention to my comments the market will very often do what I project within 2 minutes.  If I say something should transpire a certain way 2 weeks from now, that is understandably difficult to trust.

[SF Monedge]

The problem to solve with internal metrics in markets is trusting them.  I was long euro from yesterdays lows around the close of the day and held overnight to wake up to nice gains but the metrics telling me to get on the sell side of Sterling, which I was also riding long gains in.  There is plenty of logic to substantiate not doing that and so I went with the logic and took the gains earlier than necessary.  If you pay attention you can see an hour, a day, a week, two weeks ahead of time.  But you have to trust it.

So I trusted the metrics and went on the sell side in Sterling at 2838 and here we are in the low 20’s.  Now the metrics are showing dominance on the long side of Yen itself, and so if you are thinking of buying UsdJpy here approaching extension (technical) levels you would really need to have some guts as JP just pointed out.

In answer to JP’s point about fundamentals earlier, my view is that they have been in gear the entire way, you can’t deny that, where the problem to solve lies is the timing in the midst of the flows.

[Mtl JP]

Yen
IF you got the marbles to play long dlryen, at least it has a positive carry

[SF Monedge]

At least for today, all internal metrics are stacked to the sell side in Sterling, whereas Euro is stacked to the buy side.  My preference is in accord with those metrics, so I am selling Sterling higher.  Euro has to drop some for me to be on the buy side, same with Aussie.

Yen?  BOJ threat has run its course for now, you can be on either side.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.03-ish

S at 103 and 102.90-80

[Mtl JP]

one way street days
do not care about “fundamentals”

just like a run-away train does not care about the centrifugal physics of an upcoming curve on the tracs

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday often turns into a one way street day and this suggests USD stays in sell mode as day winds on.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.09 and a smidgen

one could think this kitten is going to bounce to Jay’s magical 1.0950

The Qtn is will it or not and on what path: straight, zig-zag or be nigel jubbs nasty

[SF Monedge]

There are dominant internal metrics in US stocks on the buy side and in US Notes present early on this morning, which would suggest that Euro should sustain its post-data spike.  This would be against the overall grain and some currencies are right at price levels where the would stall if the spike is to fail.  Pivotal point right here.  In my view nothing changes in the overall sell cycle for Sterling unless 2860 is compromised and the buying holds.

[Mtl JP]

laugh or cry ?

“Intel Suspends Its Dividend and Cuts 15,000 Jobs. The Stock Plummets.”

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.86

currently retracing to approx 50% 0f the intial reaction drop

[michael Calif]

traders have reversed to Short Gold futures    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 147.25-ish

it just might be that ueda has cashed and locked in sufficient profits to make him happy
and so if he goes away now puppy would have a chance to rebound some

like exciting trading ?

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 147.3-ish
–
one has to go to the DAILY for a visual where the next trgt / Support might lie
136.35-ish perhaps ?

[Author]

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