[SF Monedge]

JP imo if they do .50 all heck will break loose and not in a good way.

[Mtl JP]

50bps rate cut
–
I already posted links to last week’s pro-big cut yakkings by the FT and wsj’s timiraos

and more today by Greg Ip

Interest Rates Are Too High. The Fed Should Cut by a Half Point. With rates so far from ‘neutral’ and the labor market cooling, it’s better to start big

take it fwiw, BUT probably more importantly: how will the market react

[Mtl JP]

50bps rate cut
–
I already posted links to last week’s pro-big cut yakkings by the FT and wsj’s timiraos

So here is more screaming:
from never-trumper Dudley

An Opinion: The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will. An aggressive 50-basis-point reduction in interest rates makes sense.

[Mtl JP]

ding ding ding ding (small caps for “low tone)

DLRx not going down and only ever so gently sneaking up …

like a puma in the sahara eaballing an addax

[Mtl JP]

GAP – Dlrx 100.36

when the GAP will close, it will not be good or better.
It will close superbly marvelously and terrifically

[Mtl JP]

brainard … remember her ?

National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard speaks at a press briefing
Mon, September 16, 2024 at 12:40 p.m. EDT
(Reuters) – Top White House economic adviser Lael Brainard on Monday declared that the U.S. economy had turned the corner in bringing down inflation and it was now time to focus on safeguarding recent progress in the labor market.

“Today, we are at an important turning point. Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels, and it is important to safeguard the important labor market progress we have made,” Brainard

[GVI Forex 2]

FWIW USDJPY high was 140.91 vs. 141.00 resistance.

US yields are at the lows for the day (10-year 3.629%)

Stocks mixed, Nasdaq is lower.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY extending it’s rebound from sub-140 (was there a hidden hand?)… charts show a resistance at 141.00 and 141.40

[SF Monedge]

Just a quick comment on a present condition.  EU productivity has grown on average only 0.7% a year since 2015.  I spoke with a CTA in the 1990’s about the EU and he did not believe it would survive in the long run in part because the major sovereigns were acting like dominant powers and camouflaging it.  Draghi has a viable plan but the framework and agendas of the dominant powers are too fragmented and power hungry for it to take root.  I do not feel this is a “European thing” as much as it is human nature.

The EU is facing that moment when the façade requires major structural adjustment or it will fail in time.  They need to re-write the contracts to save themselves.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY 4 HOUR CHART – DOUBLE BOTTOM

Is the double bottom the low or just a pause?

The jury is out but at a minimum it suggests a pause.

[GVI Forex 2]

As we wait for the Fed to make its widely anticipated interest rate decision, this is one that could go either way. The debate is not whether the Fed will cut rates but by how much.

Will the Fed Cut Rates by 25 or 50 bps.?

[Mtl JP]

Oopsie-doozie … a GAP

dlrx 100.25
some would call it “dollar on back foot”

and some might ask “why” ?

and some others might say because some rate cut by the FED enthusiasts are pricing in a 50 pt cut

there. a tradeable market theme

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY DAILY CHART – CONSOLIDATING?

What stands out is the 154.37 low and whether it is a pause or a bottom.

[SF Monedge]

The caveat with the sell side of EurJpy in the 10-20 area is currencies are beginning to stabilize vs yen so the sell side is becoming dicier.

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of EurJpy 156.10 looks to have decent r/r here to me atm.

[GVI Forex 2]

Big upside beat in NYS Empire Manufacturing Index.

While this is considered a low impact report, any data pre-FOMC will be scrutinized closely. (dollar is up after the report)

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After an extraordinary 30-month monetary squeeze designed to zap a post-pandemic inflation spike, the Federal Reserve is finally set to cut interest rates this week – and it’s now only a matter of how much.

With another set of weak industrial and retail readings from China on Saturday and the FBI on Sunday pursuing a second failed assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, the news backdrop to this long-awaited Fed easing week is agitated to say the least.

Morning Bid: Fed hits easing week, China economy weak

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NEXT TARGET?

See the XAUUSD update in our Weekly FX chart Outlook

[Mtl JP]

What are they thinking ?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY MONTHLY CHART – Up like an escalator and down like an elevator

It took nearly a year for USDJPY to climb to nearly 162 following the initial move above 140 and 3 months to fall back below it.

This chart shows the risks if the 140 break holds in a market that, at least to start the week, is hoping the Fed cuts by 50bps.

Logic says this suggests the current FX moves are fragile given the size of the anticipated rate cuts is seen as a toss up.

[Mtl JP]

yes and yes and YES

Stock futures are little changed as investors await major Fed decision: Live updates

… “central bankers are expected to cut rates for the first time since 2020” – yes

just as

“The S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its July record and could notch a new all-time high this week” – – yes

and

“as many investors hope the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth — boosting economic growth“ — YES!

10-yr Yield | 4:52 AM EDT 3.644%

[Mtl JP]

AND A … JOKE

Harris or Trump? Once Again, Election Results Could Take Awhile.

Curtesy New York Times

[Mtl JP]

GOLD POP TO 2613
says

some rate cut enthusiasts eager for a 50

[GVI Forex 2]

Weekly FX Chart Outlook Sept 16-20

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS

The week begins early, on Saturday Chinese time with the country’s release of monthly industrial production and retail sales data, both of which are expected to slow appreciably. The Federal Reserve, despite indications of continued economic strength, is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The Bank of England is expected to hold policy steady on Thursday as are the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan, both on Friday.

Canadian consumer prices on Tuesday are expected to break lower to a near target 2.1 percent. UK consumer prices on Wednesday, which will help inform Thursday’s BoE meeting, are expected to hold steady at 2.2 percent.

US retail sales on Tuesday are expected to show underlying strength in contrast to US industrial production which, also posted on Tuesday, is expected to remain flat. The first estimate of New Zealand GDP on Thursday is expected to contract a quarterly 0.4 percent followed by Australia’s August labour force survey, which also on Thursday, is expected to show continued strength.

Econoday

[Anonymous]

fwiw… UBS has forecasted 275bps.

I some what disagree… FED will either hold or raise them by 25bp now because a rate cut now means they cannot raise them later down the line in stormy weather. and that means the true one who is to meant to become the next US president won’t become president. In any case, Japanese can be helpful in buying short term treasuries since they lend at almost negligible interest rates.

They can think of cutting rates after a few more quarters…

The US needs to become a Saviour Economy as it once was. I would balance geo-economical tensions and keep geo-political dominance by ha-flyin-gas-bags in check… holding rates until inflation lingers/stays below the target level during many quarters would cause “inflation and it’s inflationary effects” to fizzle out.

low rates means people would then keep on borrowing, so that kind of servant mentality of theirs has to go, so they have to save their money (at high rates) so they do not need to take loans… or at least I want it to be that way.

think about it if Americans get outta debt the first thing they do is start helping people.

Americans also do tend to do better business by sourcing high quality goods at very reasonable rates from European and UK companies when they are not under economic uncertainty. They can always take loans from japanese funds to pay for european imports into the mainland, since there is negligible interest rate it would be very easy to pay off provide the tariff levels for european imports and egyptian cotton remains low…

eg. asian tiger economies which are still struggling to carry out a covid reset… The world will not recover from covid for many more decades because it will again become a resurgence in a few years of time.

many of the various economic classes in the asian economies lost their sole breadwinners and future sole breadwinners to covid, additionally some children lost their parents to covid and need to grow up to be sober and sensible young business people, and not turn to crime/join gangs etc. So those supporting them tend to look for stability in savings accounts to finance them through their growing years.

[Mtl JP]

TARGET RATE PROBABILITIES FOR 18 SEPTEMBER 2024 FED MEETING CME FED WATCH TOOL

hahaha 50% odds
markets is a masochist
onto itself

[Mtl JP]

everyone LOVES a rollercoaster n’est pas ?

World Braces for Fed Easing Amid 36-Hour Rate Rollercoaster

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[GVI Forex 2]

A Full News Events Calendar in the Week Ahead

Newsquawk.com Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, US & UK Retail Sales, UK, Canada & Japan CPI,Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP

 

[Mtl JP]

what is in the air is GOLD (Bid/Ask 2,577.70 / 2,578.70)
thanks to the agonizing n difficult interest rate pricing FED “decision”

some correlations are game-able, uh ?

[Author]

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