[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks are on the back foot heading into the home stretch with less than 4 hours to the close for the year but hard to suggest follow through given limited participation.

New ball game starting Friday although trading will not start in earnest until next week.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1735 S
now breaking down
only some care
nobody cares about some fundamentals

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Last day of the year trading leaves stocks in general at the mercy of last minute flows.
• Bounce from the intra-day low (25347) would need to take out the minor trendline and 25585 to break current momentum.
• Otherwise, little to go for within the range.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Back to 6900 (pivotal) with lower weekly jobless claims providing some support.
• Now at the mercy of end of year flows with limited follow through within the 6855-6943 range.
• Back above 6915 still needed to break down momentum,
• Intraday low: 6875

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Post weekly jobless claims beat (algos running the trading asylum)

US bond yields – up
US stocks – up
USD – up
Gold – up
BTCUSD – up

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 156.93

“nobody” or almost nobody, around
interesting pricepoint test

[GVI Forex 2]

U.S. initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the prior week, coming in below consensus forecasts of around 220,000

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up: Weekly Jobless Claims (forecast 220K vs 214K prior)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD back to 1.1750 (last 1,1754)

To state the obvious, market is playing with a half deck today.

[ST London]

Markets in 2025: Gold, Goldilocks and the dollar bears

World stocks have added another $15 trillion in market cap

Biggest annual gain for gold since 1979 oil crisis

Treasuries have made modest gains but emerging market bonds have surged

Oil down 17%, bitcoin crashes 30% since October

The dollar’s decline leaves the euro up almost 14% in 2025 and the Swiss franc 14.5% higher.

Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• When XAUUSD broke down this week I cited 4257-71 as support blocking exposing 4200. Low today 4271 following the run through stops.
• For today, those trading are at the mercy of thin end of the year flows where 4271 needs to hold and 4300 (likely pivot) needs to be regained to suggest the low is in.
• 4373 needs to be taken out to negate the downside risk.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is firmer ahead of the US opening in cautious, thin last day of the year trading.
• EURUSD is trading softer while below 1.1750, currently lagging GBPUSD (note firmer EURGBP).
• GBPUSD has broken a 5-day pivot around 1.35, a negative sign in a normal market.
• US stocks are trading lower.
• GOLD has had a wild ride and currently back above 4300 after running stops below it.
• US weekly jobless claims highlight a thin calendar.
• Most centers close early today. US stock markets will trade a normal session.

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Trader Alert

Watch Out for a New Year Whipsaw Market

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Continues to struggle building up momentum as it trades in a tight range but downside contained while above 25378.

2 scenarios

1. If 25378 breaks, then 25000 comes into play.
2. ‘If 25715 breaks, the elusive 25842 resistance comes on the radar.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Remains trapped in a range around 6900, one too tight to last, if not pre-new year then after.
• Chart shows current momentum, although weak is tilted more down than up.
• Current range: 6888-6915, wider at 6855-6943.

Two scenarios:

1. If 6915 holds as resistance, then a 6888 break would increase downward momentum.
2. If 6915 breaks, then momentum shifts where the record 6943 high comes back on the radar.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

furthermore:
–
“The central bank initiated the program by buying $40 billion a month in bills, staying around that level for several months before downshifting. A prior effort to reduce the balance sheet saw the Fed cut its holdings by about $2.3 trillion to its current $6.6 trillion.

The minutes noted that unless the buying program, known in markets as quantitative easing, was restarted, it could result in a “significant declines in reserves” that would fall below the Fed’s “ample” regime for the banking system.” – notes jeff cox

[Mtl JP]

Fed minutes show officials were in tight split over December rate cut
– By Jeff Cox

[GVI Forex 2]

FOMC Minutes Preview

(Right click on image to open in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

So much for that USD rally

This turned out to be a good alert

With spec interest light, it is hard to count on follow through.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: End-of-year flows dominating

• USD up…GBPUSD (down) initially leading EURUSD lagging but playing some catchup, testing sub-1.1750, still pivotal
• US stocks indices remain in tight ranges but unable so far to catch a bid (US500 testing sub-6900)
• XAUUSD backing off from 4400+. As noted yesterday, …should there be a bounce, assume there are underwater longs lying in wait hoping to get out at breakeven or better.
• With spec interest light, it is hard to count on follow through.

[GVI Forex 2]

CHI PMI beat (volatile series not a market mover)

(Right click on image to open in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• The last full trading day of the year has NAS100 trading in a tight range.
• Above 25378 contains the downside, below it would expose 25000
• Above 25715 is needed to put the elusive 25842 resistance in play..

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Currently trapped in a tight range on this last full trading day of the year as it struggles to regain momentum.
• To negate a lingering retracement risk, 6920+ is needed.
• Support at 6888 keeps the focus on 6900+ while above it, key support below it at 6855

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

USD trying to catch a bid but so far with limited follow through in a market driven by real money end of year flows as spec interest is light.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD FIBOS for 4549 => 4301 (last at 4400)

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Tip: Keep your emotions in check when in tight ranges as small moves on a chart can look like large moves.

Example: US500 15-minute chart where a 5.5 point move (see green candle below) looks like it is a lot larger.

\

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) UPDATE

• Trend is down heading into yearend but struggling to build further momentum
• Needing a break of 97.78 to build further momentum’
• Needing to regain 98.79 to confirm a break of momentum
• (98.21 only becomes a significant resistance if 97.78 is taken out.
• Note EUR is 57.6% of the index, which is often used as a proxy for the EURUSD so watch how it trades vs. 1.1750 and 1.1800 for a clue.

USDX DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• With no sell stops left to run (unless 4300 is taken out), XAUUSD has clawed its way back up but a ways to go to regain its breakdown levels.
• Back above 4430-50 is what is needed to negate the downside risk and shift the focus back to 4500+.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading a touch softer in what has so far been a quiet last full trading day of the year.
• EURUSD is back to around midway within 1.1750-1.1800, lagging GBPUSD as EURGBP trades soft.
• GBPUSD 1.35 has traded for the 5th day in a row, currently above it.
• USDJPY has dipped back below 156 but still above 155.55 support.
• AUDUSD has firmed on the back of a rebound in metals.
• US stocks have so far traded a quiet session as well.
• A key focus will be on the FOMC minutes due at 1900 GMT

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog: Get ready for 2026

Looking Ahead to 2026: More Questions Than Answers for Markets and Policy

 

[Author]

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