[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY so far faiiing to hold 155+… clearly the bias setter

Focus stays on 155 as long as it trades aiove 154.45-55

155.78 remains a key level on top

[GVI Forex 2]

Algebra 101: EURUSD/GBPUSD = EURGBP

EURGBP bounced (last .8362), EURUSD bunced (last 1.0559), GBPUSD up with a lag

[GVI Forex 2]

GOLD:

GS stands by its forecast of $3000/oz by the end of 2025

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 90k REMAINS PIVOTAL

With Cryotos a focus following the trump election let;s take a look at BTCUSD

Bid but consolidating whike with 85K-95K where 90K is the obvious bias setting level.

Market smells 100L a a target but only if 90K become a solid sipport.

[Mtl JP]

SF 2:11 – 155.50+ : think in NY session ?

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street feels a little bruised after its worst week in 10 spoiled the post-election party, with home truths on interest rates and earnings seeping back in along with all the uncertainty on what a new administration will actually do come January.

Stocks were side-swiped on Friday after a week of irksome inflation readings, hot retail updates and Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell’s equivocation on future easing.

There was also trepidation, however, ahead of chip giant Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) latest earnings report on Wednesday – as the world’s biggest company by market value and artificial intelligence bellwether faces another test of the near 800% stock boom over the past year.

Morning Bid: Bruised Wall Street keeps wary eye on Nvidia

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSSQUAWK US OPEN

US futures are mixed, Bonds edge lower whilst XAU gains; ECB Lagarde due

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are generally on the backfoot, US futures are mixed.

Dollar is incrementally lower, JPY underperforms after BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates.

USTs are marginally lower whilst Bunds extend losses and slips below 132.00.

WTI & Brent are firmer in what has been a choppy session, XAU eyes USD 2.6k to the upside.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

How crosses affect spot FX — it’s simple algebra

EURGBP (backs off from its high

 

EURUSD mirrors the EURGBP fall

 

GBPUSD trades sudeways

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a very light US economic calendar this week so it will take some other catalyst to spark markets.

[GVI Forex 2]

Thsi article is worth a read given the way USDJPY has traded the past 2 days.

When you see two currencies move in opposite directions you can affine there is a cross flow going through that the market is having trouble absorbing.

Forex Trading Confidential: What Makes USDJPY Move?

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NO SURPRISE

It should come as no surprise to see EURUSD gravitate back to 1.0550, which is the bias setting level while within 1.05-1.06

Note firmer EUR crosses (e.g. EURJPY, EURGBP) giving EURUSD support but not enough to break the key 1.0593 level.

So let’s call it consolidation of the downtrend where only a break of 1.0590-00 would shift the risk from 1.0495-10.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Rebounding but obstacles loom

Rebound would need to regain 2600 to ease pressure on the downside but would need to break 2619 to confirm this latest episode to the downside is over.

Support starts at 2577 (former resistance) and 2554 (use 2550-55). Only below the latter would expose the 2536 low.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – 155 STAYS THE FOCUS

 

Bouncing after extending its Friday low by just a few pips with pressure coming off JPY crosses.

Key levels: 153.83 and 155.78

Others: 155 (clearly pivotal in setting the tone) and 100 hour mva (currently 155.20).

[SF Monedge]

I caught that entire run.  Next stop is likely 155.50 or higher before it dumps again.  Patience or a sitting order of your choice.

[SF Monedge]

You have to be able to use volatility.  That was a fast 55 points.  Coming up again.  Hit it again, should go higher first 2nd time.

[SF Monedge]

It may be an idea to get on the sell side of Yen pairs above 155 (speaking in code).

[GVI Forex 2]

A very timely article in our blog

Forex Trading Confidential: What Makes USDJPY Move?

[michael Calif]

Option Profile looking for a BTC Top @ 96,000    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY opening week gap vs 154.02 close.

[michael Calif]

Nov 14 repost:    Option Profile has confirmed that Longs now control Euro, Yen, and 10yr (lower yields) futures.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Monday starts off with Canadian housing starts, which are expected to rise to an annual rate of 240,000 in October after bouncing back to 224,000 in September from a recent low of 213,000 in August. Housing starts have been trending down, reflecting overall weakness in Canada despite relaxed financing conditions delivered by the Bank of Canada.

On Tuesday, Canada’s annual inflation reading is expected to correct higher to 1.9 percent in October from 1.6 percent in September and 2.0 percent in August. The September figure was the lowest since February 2021. On a monthly unadjusted basis, forecasters expect a 0.3 percent rebound after the 0.4 percent drop in September and 0.2 percent decline in August. Inflation readings like this are expected to keep rate cuts coming from the Bank of Canada.

US housing starts are estimated to be a little soft at a 1.3 million unit rate in October versus 1.4 million in September. Permits are expected flat at 1.4 million versus 1.4 million in September.

Wednesday, Japan’s merchandise trade is balance is expected to post a deficit of ¥132.2 billion for a fourth consecutive shortfall, after a revised ¥294.1 billion deficit in September and compared with a ¥702.86 billion deficit in October 2023 and a record shortfall of ¥3,506.43 billion (¥3.51 trillion) in January 2023. Japanese export values are forecast to show a rebound in October, up 3.0%, after falling 1.7% in September for their first year-on-year drop in 10 months. An increase in semiconductor-producing equipment appears to be partly offset by drops in automobiles, mineral fuels and iron/steel. Import values are expected to mark their first decline in seven months, down 1.8%, on crude oil, semiconductors and smartphones, following a 2.1% rise the previous month.

China’s monetary authorities cut the loan prime rate by 25 bp in last month’s fixing to boost the economy. Forecasters uniformly expect no change this month in 1-year or 5-year rates.

UK’s consumer price index is estimated to fall more than expected to a 1.7 percent rate in September from 2.2 percent in August. Forecasters expect the rate to rebound to 2.2 percent on year in October with a 0.5 percent jump on the month. A big rise in household energy bills is expected to push headline inflation higher in October. Core inflation is expected to be better behaved.

On Thursday, US jobless claims are expected to edge up to 219,000, closer to the four-week moving average at 227,250 after a lower than expected 217,000 in the prior week.

Friday, Japan’s consumer price index is expected to ease further to 2.2% in the core reading in October from 2.4% in September and 2.8% in August. The year-on-year increase in the total CPI is forecast at 2.3%, also down from 2.5% in September. By contrast, underlying inflation measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is seen at 2.3%, up from 2.1% the previous month, as this relatively younger series is unaffected by energy prices. The Bank of Japan, which expects inflation to be anchored around its 2% target by early 2026, is on course for at least three more 25 basis point rate hikes that would take the overnight interest rate target to 1% by late 2025 as part of its gradual normalization process after more than a decade of large-scale eas

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – DAY AFTER

Monday is like the day after an earthquake, meaning the day after the USDJPY meltdown.

Keep an eye on US stocks as Friday’ s plunge wa partly behind the hort JPY unwinding

4 HOUR CHART

:
Watch the trendline,

152.14 I the key support that needs to hold to keep the focus on 155.

Back above 155 would be needed to restore a bid bias.

Logic says there should be offers above the market by those caught long.

[Mtl JP]

NYT reports
—
“Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles”

President Biden for the first time authorized the use of a system known as ATACMS to help defend Ukraine’s forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

ATACMS is Lockheed Martin

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: 18th-22nd November 2024: Highlights include UK CPI & Retail Sales; RBA Minutes; Japanese CPI

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.05650 , 1.05950 & 1.06200

Supports : 1.05150 , 1.04950 & 1.04650

This is a Bearish Close / Open tonight, but do expect Upticks to at least 1.05650

[GVI Forex 2]

Our new and upgraded server is now online as we outgrew our old server due to our raopid growth.

Posts from Friday November 15 were not saved during the transition to a new server that you should find very reliable, smooth and fast loading.

[Mtl JP]

hear the bell toll janet yellen ?

“Top Economic Jobs Are Next Up in Trump’s Frenetic Transition Process”
President-elect meets with Scott Bessent, seen as a front-runner to lead the Treasury Department
By Andrew Restuccia, Vivian Salama, Brian Schwartz, Rebecca Ballhaus, Nov. 15, 2024 in WSJ

[Mtl JP]

cnbc’ jeff cox
–
“Markets are grappling with the effect of Trump’s win and how the Fed will react”

and how the FED will react ….. … … to Trump’s win ?
reading that headline I get the impression cox has a splinter in his donkey

[Belgrade Bobby]

Test

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed’s Powell says the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates

[Author]

Posts