[Mtl JP]

US 10-yr 4.7 vs last time april 24 4.739 high

oh how good it feels to fill pocket with posi-pips
all s good as long as it lasts

[GVI Forex 2]

More fuel on the fire

Source Mewsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Dragging up government borrowing costs across the world, the new year spike in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is flashing red as a long-absent risk premium in debt markets re-builds alarmingly amid fiscal policy and interest rate fears.

The New York Federal Reserve’s estimate of the 10-year ‘term premium’ – seen as the compensation investors seek for holding long-term Treasuries to maturity instead of rolling over short-term debt holdings – topped 50 basis points this week for the first time since 2014.

Morning Bid: Bonds flashing red, ‘term premium’ at 10y high

[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Under attack

Breal fo 1.2410, if it holds, leaves just 1.2386 (tested0 blocking the key 1.2352 low

The sharp drop seems order driven with EIRGBP firming sga[p;y and Gilts selling off.,,, market is having more trouble absorbing the GBP sell side

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART0- Bumpy ride but up..

The 6-week rally, which has  been a bumpy ride, from 148.65 continues…

As you can see by this chart there is nothing of note until the 161.91 high

This increases the significance of key big figures 158 and 160, 158 needing to become support for 160 to become an attraction.

[Anonymous]

FX: Sell dollar weakness… meaning Sell euro and cable spikes.

 

fwiw… yuan is pegged at 7.29 per 1 US dollar but when dollar is worth 25 cents per euro then yuan would be worth nothing. So China will have no choice but to devalue their yuan to around 66.50 yuan per 1 dollar.

[Anonymous]

This kinda injustice against the US govt just bothers and bugs me like anything. I mean what have they done to deserve such kind of injustice. I mean literally the whole of California is on fire and everybody is just least bothered. We don’t see wildfires breaking out in other parts of the world in that way meaning it’s happening only in the USA or simply the States. I wouldn’t use America anymore because using just America by itself indicates something like a wild west type of civil environment.

Why don’t they simply allow agricultural farming in those areas at least the dirt/ground/earth and greenhouses will remain cool in summers. The people would create jobs and taxable income and save the government and insurance companies from having to pay billion’s of dollars in compensation for the reason of plain negligence. What a paradox. A coastal state has a problem with drought when they can easily pump desalinated water into those forests, it costs only about 2 billion per year but would save the government and insurance companies from paying 12 billion per year and even more over longer periods of time. They collect taxes in one state and have to pay their tax collections over to another state. Now what exactly is the use of doing that!

fwiw…They can rename the Gulf of Mexico into the Gulf of the Unites States.

[Anonymous]

EUROPE – Very Strange

The German Dax is rising, but there is no economic-funamental reason there, except a DEXIT risk upon the upcoming German Election on February 23d.

In case of DEXIT it is said the EURO might loose 40% sharp, there will be problems in devalued assets all over and those not market to market might require huge capital inflows.

The New Deutsche Mark would rise 40%. So probably some German Equities are now considered partly a safe have. Just partly and just some.

All other EUROPEAN INDEXES WOULD CRASH

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – ON THE DEFENSIVE AGAIN

As I have been saying, how markets end the week is more important than how they start out.

In this regard, EURUSD failure to hold 1.04 has put last week’s 1,0224 low back on the table.

Two support levels stand in the way, 1.0307 (use 1.03 as well) and 1.0272 so damage not yet fatal.

In any case, expect a sell on blips while below 1.0360-80, stronger bias as long as 1.0350+ is not regained.

‘

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP:

What a difference a day makes… at this time yesterday the dollar was down across-the-board, which, to state the obvious, did not last… watch US bond yields, which have been a driver

As markets reliquefy, economic data continues to be a driver…

Today sees

ADP employment (not a good indicator of NFP but can cause some volatility)

US jobless claims (released today due to tomorrow’s day if mourning)

[Anonymous]

DEXIT – EUROPE

In view of the upcoming elections to the European Parliament, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen had clear words on the German AfD’s plans to leave the European Union. During a speech at the CDU federal party conference on May 8, 2024, von der Leyen said about the right-wing populist party: “A Dexit like the one the AfD chooses would mean a loss of prosperity of 400 to 500 billion euros per year for Germany. In Germany as an exporting country, an AfD Dexit would be associated with an immediate loss of 2.2 million jobs.” These claims are backed by studies.

SOURCE https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/mostly-true-a-dexit-would-mean-a-loss-of-prosperity-of-400-to-500-billion-euros-per-year/

[GVI Forex 2]

Thursday, January 9 will a Day of mourning for the passing of President Jimmy Carter

On Dec. 30, President Biden ordered that “all executive departments and agencies of the Federal Government shall be closed on Jan. 9,” except those necessary for “national security, defense, or other public need.” Federal employees will still be paid for the day.

The Postal Service will suspend mail delivery and close post offices, but there will still be limited package delivery service, a spokesman said.

National parks will generally be open, but their administrative offices will be closed.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will also be closed, as will the United States Supreme Court and other federal courts, along with the Library of Congress.

[Anonymous]

” China is reportedly plagued by a mysterious viral outbreak, as it became known on Friday (3/1). Videos on social media appear to show hospital units being overwhelmed by masked patients and parents holding sick children in long queues in pediatric units.

Also, according to the Daily Mail, there are unconfirmed reports that crematoriums and funeral homes have been filled. Worrying images and lack of official comments show similarities to the early days of the coronavirus , as many point to it. ”

Source – https://www.ieidiseis.gr/ygeia/274649/mystiriodis-ios-gemizei-ta-nosokomeia-tis-kinas-ti-lene-oi-protes-anafores

[Anonymous]

Don’t want to sound as Mr. Doom & Gloom. But….

In Thessaloniki, the first cases in Greece of the Chinese HMPV virus.

As reported by OPEN and broadcasted by the media of Thessaloniki. This is a 71-year-old man whose daughter traveled to China on holidays and shortly after returning, her father showed the first symptoms. Then she too.

Elsewhere in California

What we know about HMPV, the virus spreading in China

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/what-we-know-about-hmpv-the-virus-spreading-in-china/

[Anonymous]

Having lost all hope, the European Equity Indexes open with an extremely bullish tone.

That said, there are no fundamentals supporting It.

Hence algorithmic manipulation within low liquidity investment classes.

Long term, I don’t see nothing good in EU by March 2025 already. To some extent there’s nothing good there now already.

(Burn after reading, hahah)

[Mtl JP]

so is the dlr
against the chf

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0333

on the move again.
down

Res 1.0440

[GVI Forex 2]

Global traders are addicted to news, whether it be economic, monetary policy, political or geopolitical. Who can blame them as news equates to volatility, especially when there is a surprise.

However, the reality is the average forex trader cannot compete with the news algos,…

Why Can’t I Compete With the News Trading Algos?

[Mtl JP]

GVI Forex 6:34 that $350 bln deficit
–
donald said a LOT of things at his so-called presser. like a machinegun firing 3,000 rounds per minute.
and you, like an eagle eye, spot THAT one bullet.

Is it tradeable ? IF y, which instrument and which way ?

I d have much rather heard trump spew fewer but more substantial bullets rather than the profusion. How many bullets out of 3000 do actually hit their target with devastating effect ? Is a sniper’s bullet more effective ?

BTW when donald was yakking about the 350 bln deficit it was in refernce to trade deficit with europe.
ps / past perforance is neither indication nor guarantee of future one.

[Anonymous]

2025 GDP growth estimates for U.S. (white) and Eurozone (blue) continues to widen

(imvho it is still optimistic, as said the European Energy Crisis is not yet priced into)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY 4 HOUR CHART –Failure

Failure to break 21680 puts NAS100 a bit on the defensive and dependent on 20956 holding to prevent a run at the 20616 low.

Watch US bonds as rising yields weighed on Nas100 AS WELL.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR  Chart –6000 proving too tough

As noted yesterday, all that matters now is whether it can establish 6000+ for a run at the 6101 record high.

To prevent another run at 5800, 5862 needs to hold.

While within 5800-6000, look for 5900 to set the tone.

Note rising US bond yields were a weight on equities today.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 1 HOUR CHART – Watch 1.4350

Failure to reach 1.4279 suggests the low is in (unless establishes below 1.43)

On the upside, a break of 1.4380 would be needed to put 1.4400+ back in play.

While within 1.43-1.44, look for 1.4350 to be the eventual bias setting level.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nio Inc.

Seems that Nio is stuck in the Yoyo syndrome for now.

Now let’s see if 4.40 holds…

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA     

Stock reached just above previous ATH (high) , just to be drowned…

Nvidia shares had run up in advance of the event, but CEO Jensen Huang didn’t mention Rubin, the company’s next chip family

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Bitcoin failed in front of the resistance at 102.800.00

Supports at : 94.350.00 & 91.300.00

Loss of the later one will turn the picture into Bearish

On the very big picture – talking Months – BTC will push further Up, but now might be the time for some consolidation and opportunity to be bought way cheaper.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

1.03500 reached – so what’s gonna be ?

Only close below 1.03500 will signal attack at 1.03250 and further down.

Close above 1.03600 is good enough for me to call another day Up – Wednesday

So watch for the close tonight.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, the one commen6 that caught my eye was about the US running a $350 bln trade deficit that he was going to do something about.

[Mtl JP]

too much huf n puf , too many superfluous adjectives and verbs

somebody needs to tell donald to make himself scarcer and more frugal with words
he is getting tiring and boring which runs the risk that he ll be subject to msm short n punchy headlines
as people tune out

[Author]

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