[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD. Why 4200 is important

Pattern repeats:

• Sharp but short-lived retracements followed by new record highs. Yesterday;s 4189 => 4090 retracxement didn’t even last a day

Unchartered waters:

• When in uncharted record high waters “big figures (round numbers), such as 4000, 4100, 4200 etc increase in importance in the absence of any historic resistance on charts.
• But not all big figures should be treated the same (e.g. 4200 is more significant than 4100 or 4300).
• So pay attention to the new record high above 4200, now the pivotal level – above it targets 4350 with the next pivotal big figures at 4500 while below slows this runaway’s train.
• Intra-day support starts at 5180-5200

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading softer as mood turns to risk on in sort of a delayed reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday, which solidified expectations of 2 more rate cuts this year.
• AUD and JPY outperforming followed by the EURUSD next in line

[ST London]

What i the one way ticket up in gold saying?

Is it all about US interest rates?

Is it a mistrust and diversification away from the dolkar?

Is it a mistrust of fiat currencies in general?

[ST London]

Stocks up
Usd down
Gold tests 4200

Who needs US data?

[Mtl JP]

“President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.”

How so ? asks grasshopper

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1630 = 3X top atm

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets struggling to find a common theme without USD data as it reacts to the latest headline

• Will another new French government fall? (event risk)
• Ongoing US government shutdown with no end in sight (not a factor yet)
• Uncertainty over next Japan government (so far not a factor)
• Will US-China trade war escalate? (biggest risk to markets)
• Expectations of rate cuts amid a divided Fed (2 more cuts this year being priced in)

[GVI Forex 2]

NZDUSD: Is there a bottom?

• Bounce off 5682 would need to break 5745 to confirm its the low.
• If not, latest leg down stays intact but consolidating unless 5682 is taken out.

NZDUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

No more rate cuts?

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-PacO pening News

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) U.S. vs China Headline Risk

• Trying to build momentum off a higher low (24235) but it is hard to suggest follow through given the risk of a U.S.-China trade/tariff war headline.
• Like US500, this suggests more choppy trade unless either side of 23975-25205 is broken.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500): Headline roulette

1. Higher low giving some hope that momentum will build again to the upside but it is hard to suggest it given the risk f a headline escalating the US-China trade/tariff war
2. This suggests more choppy trade unless either side of 6496-6768 is broken.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Another Trum China threat

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) Trying to rebuild momentum

1. Range is clear at Tuesday’s 4090-4180 (record high)
2. It would take more than a short-lived retracement and a break of 4090 and 4040-70 for bulls to give up the fight.
3. Otherwise, consolidation while with the range if the mega trend needs to take a breather.

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART[JM1]

[JM1]

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets taking Poiwell comments as dovish, especially equities

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Little FX reaction to Powell speech although stocks extending rebound

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

rtrs
“Fed’s Powell says economy on firmer footing, though low-hiring, low-firing trend continues”

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up:

12:20 p.m.

Speech – Chair Jerome H. Powell

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

At the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pa.

[Mtl JP]

“Trump trade rep says new 100% tariff on China depends on Beijing’s next move”
– cnbc headline

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) Mind the gap

1. Found support within the opening week gap
2. Makes 24253 a key support within the current range to 24873 and broad 23974-25205 range.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) Trying to rebuild momentum

• Trying to rebuild upward momentum after the sharp retreat from the new record high (4180) found support below 4100 (4090)
• For that to occur 4144 would need to be broken and then become support.
• Otherwise, dependent on 4090-97 holding to keep the focus on 4100+

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART[JM1]

[Mtl JP]

lets see

“French PM proposes suspending Macron’s flagship pension reform to win budget support” – rtrs

how this works for him

[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:37 / jerome is struggling
he has soooo little time to polish his ego and his legacy

imagine president trump comes out next with just one first name: kevin

[Mtl JP]

ICE U.S. Dollar Index is sub 100 at 99.16

[GVI Forex 2]

JP I  GAVE THE CLUES EARLIER:

• Watch 1.1550
• Limited USD upside ahead of Powell

Best I can say at tghis tiume is low is likely in unless Powell throws a curveball.

Here is a one hour EURUSD AT chart

[Mtl JP]

GVI how do you currently interpret next euro price-action on A/T ?

[Mtl JP]

some character (jeff cox) on cnbc wrote that
“Bessent tells the FT that struggling China wants ‘to pull everybody else down with them'”

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, who wants to be long USD ahead of Powell or short stocks for that matter?

Am chance he will surprise?

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1583
–
I see low odds of puppy running N of 1.1620 today

[Author]

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