[GVI Forex 2]

New French PM

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[GVI Forex 2]

JP, as I noted, billions, maybe more trade on NFP data that is questionable at best and subject to jarge revisions.

When was the last time the market traded on Durable Goods Orders?

Answer: A long time ago as the report is subject to large revisions.

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Tip

US 10 year 4.068%… no FX reaction

TIP: INTRA-DAY CORRELATIONS WORK UNTIL THEY STOP WORKING

[Mtl JP]

Someone Help Me Plz

From cnbc home page:
“Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized
Traders see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point
Worker confidence in finding a new job hits record low in NY Fed survey
S&P 500 little changed, Nasdaq falls from record as traders deal with economic uncertainty”

Do players believe there is “quality” in the BLS data release ?

As I look at the DLRX – 97.70 at 1:07 PM – I see 97.50/10 Sup and…
pushing away from 96.30 july low
for now at least

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1721
players are focussd on Th’s ECB rate
which atm appears to be a “hold”
It appears that player thoughts of ECB cutting are unvelcome thinking

Res 1.1750
Sup 1.1700

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 147.24
currently under its 50dma

IF I had to I d be tilted south

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

Watch 147.33 (tested and also cited earlier) as the level that would need to be broken to fully negate the downside risk although there are layers of resistance above it.

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Is it time for XAUUSD to take a take a breather after the spike to another record high to 3674?

Only pointing out the risk that would need to break 3628 to suggest time for a pause.

Continue to watch 3650 as it will stay pivotal in setting the tone.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

For the scalpers

Watch correlation with US bonds

For example,

10 year 4.091 => EURUSD 1.1715

then

10 year 4,076 => EURUSD 1.1726

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Hit a wall at 23867 but to turn it into anything more than consolidation, 23375=23471would need to be taken out.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Upside looking a bit tired after failing to challenge its 6533 record high but would need to break 6483 to pressure the downside. Otherwise, consolidaiion.

In any case, 6500 remains pivotal, currently below it.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s hot and what’s not?

What’s hot?

Dollar catching a bid after trading lower overnight

Crude oil is up

What’s not?

Currencies down after giving back earlier gains

US bonds down (yields ticking up)

US stocks turning down

Bitcoin down modestly

What’s hot/not?

GOLD still up on the day but well off another record high

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields up (USD up) despite NFP benchmark revisions. Those looking ahead are keeping an eye out for PPI on Wed and CPI on Thurs

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF

More of a follower than a leader so watch EURUSD for a clue.

I took a double take looking at this chart where resistance is every 10 pips from .7956-96, bottom end holding so far

USDCHF 30 MINUTE CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Revisions near top of the range… but little impact on Fed rate cut pricing

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[GVI Forex 2]

Consensus benchmark NFP revision -682K

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Specifics

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Equity Open

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[GVI Forex 2]

GOLD extends record high on heightened geopolitical risk (see below)

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD headling back towards 1.1750 after finding support midway 1.1720-35… should not be a surprise as defense takes over ahead of the benchmark revisions

Preliminary NFP revisions data should not be big event but market will react, especiqally if outside the expected range.

[GVI Forex 2]

Looks like markets on hold waiting for the NFP benchmark revisions in about an hour.

[ST London]

How many are setup short usd waiting for benchmark revisions will tilt Fed to 50bps cut even though it is only to March?

[GVI Forex 2]

Traders likely bracing for this although more important final revisions are not due until Feb 2026.

BLS PRELIM BENCHMARK REVISIONS 

The BLS will release the preliminary 2025 benchmark revisions to the establishment survey at 10:00EDT/15:00BST on September 9th, 2025.

See detailed preview

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

Why forex levels matter.

Held test of 1.1735 support (see prior post)  BUT

Needs now to regain 1.1744 for 1.1750 to attract again

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

Bobby called it right last night… Test of upside, resistance 1.1770-90 (high 1.1780)

Focus back to 1.1750, needs to hold 1.1720-35,  below it risk shifts back to 1.1700.

Note: Weaker EUR crosses (e.g. vs JPY, GBP) a weight on EURUSD

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

French-German 10 year bond yield spread

This is where to look for any additional signs of stress after the spread shot out on the initial announcement of a no confidence vote

[GVI Forex 2]

Note the Power of the “50” level;

EURUSD 11750
USDJPY 146.50
GBPUSD 1.3550
XAUUSD 3650

Good time to revisit or read for the first time this article

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY low 146,30 vs. 146.21 support cited earlier… last 146.49 (146.50 remains pivotal)

[Mtl JP]

ST – markets blinking

US debt runs 123% of gdp; in frogland 114%
wsj editorial is asking how to save macron (but not trump from calls to resign)

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 146.42
–
couple more pips down and puppy will be breaking out of recent range

ch-ch-change …
will be good

[Author]

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