[GVI Forex 2]

US retail sales up next … See our Economic Data Calendar

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCAD 4H

Resistances: 1.43600, 1.43750 & 1.43850

Supports: 1.43450, 1.43300 & 1.43050

Direction on 4h – Down

Pattern – More Down

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures are softer & Crude bid after Trump orders strikes in Yemen; US Retail Sales due

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

• US Senate voted 54-46 to pass the stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through September 30th.
• European bourses modestly firmer whilst US futures are in negative territory.
• USD is a touch softer ahead of a risk-packed week; Antipodeans benefit from Chinese data and as China unveiled a plan to boost weak consumption.
• EGBs bid with OATs leading after Fitch while Bunds await fiscal updates.
• Gas deflates after US President Trump said he will speak with Russia’s President Putin on Tuesday and may have something to announce on Ukraine-Russia talks by Tuesday.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Hourly

Supports: 2995.00, 2985.00

Resistances: 3000.00, 3005.00

Moving Up – new high probable today

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4H

Is this a start of run to 1.32 ?

Supports: 1.29400 & 1.29300

Resistances: 1.29750 & 1.29900

We’ve been watching a consolidation from 12th March and it is starting Up again.

Now I don’t want to bother you with details, but one is very important – how Cable is going to close this bar – for more advances I prefer somewhere around 1.29500 and then for the new high.

Worst case scenario is if it closes close to the previous high – than expect a pull back towards MA’s

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 5 days in a row

Past 5 days trading around 1.09 except one day when the high was 1.0897 (close enough)

Range over this period has been 1.0822=-1.0947… midpoint is 1.08845 as a reference level.

Next directional move will be dictated by whether 1.09 becomes a solid support or resistance…. looking at this chart shows either uptrend out of steam so consolidting

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART _ Taking a breather

Consolidating between 2978-3905 after briefly breaching 2000_ on Fruday.

Keeps a bid as long as it trades above 2956 (former record high ) and a key 2932 level BUT… needs 3000 to become support for a fresh leg higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

A cautious start to what will be an event filled week with the dollar trading a touch sotter except vs a steady JPY..

XAUUSD is higher below 3000.

Trump to talk with Putin on Tuesday in ending the Ukraine-Russia war.

U.S. Retail Sales due…See a detailed preview.

[David Shepherd]

I sold gold immediately after the ma’s crossover and align with bar formation.

[GVI Forex 2]

For GTA Members: Updated

Trading Tip of the Week
‘
Chart of the week

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The March 18-19 FOMC meeting is the key focus of the week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s March 7 remarks aimed to maintain market stability, emphasizing that monetary policy decisions will be based on economic data rather than external policy changes.

Powell highlighted a steady labor market with moderate hiring and low layoffs outside tech and government. He stated that the U.S. economy is in a “good place” and that the Fed can be patient, keeping the fed funds target range at 4.25-4.50% since December 2024.

Markets do not expect a rate change at the FOMC’s March 20 announcement, but the release of the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be analyzed for signs of a 2025 GDP slowdown, rising unemployment, or persistent inflation. Powell’s press briefing may address how White House policies have influenced forecasts.

Additionally, the Fed may consider ending its balance sheet reduction program, which has cut reserve holdings by $2 trillion since mid-2022. The current $6.5 trillion balance may now be considered sufficient, shifting from “abundant” pandemic-era reserves to “ample” levels preferred by policymakers.

 

 

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

Interview with The Sunday Times Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, 16 March 2025

…we need to consider the uncertainty of the current environment, which is even higher than it was during the pandemic.

You said the uncertainty now is even greater than during the pandemic. How would you characterise it? What are the big unknowns at the moment?

First, the policies of the new US Administration. There’s a lot of talk about tarif…

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.08900, 1.09100 & 1.09500

Supports: 1.08700, 1.08500 & 1.08200

EUR will try to continue Up, but this is just not a good situation for it.

I prefer waiting to see reaction on resistances / supports first, before deciding on intraday direction.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, no opening week gaps

[Mtl JP]

GAP
–
bullish gap dlrcad

[GVI Forex 2]

A full calendar of events

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights17th-21st March 2025

Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, SNB, US Retail Sales, Aussie jobs, Japan & Canada CPI jobs, Japan & Canada CPI

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Global-view.com GTA Challenge Continues – More Prizes

We are happy to announce next round of our GTA Challenge.

The Challenge will start on March 17th 202

This time we are brining you a chance to get one of 3 Prizes:

REGISTER NOW

[GVI Forex 2]

[Mtl JP]

EURO got slammed in tha last 8 minutes of trading

from 1.0882 to close at 1.0874

[Mtl JP]

as reported by cnn
–
“Bill to avoid government shutdown clears key hurdle in Senate
Ten Democrats joined Republicans to advance House-passed spending measure ahead of a midnight deadline”

[Mtl JP]

amuzing / amazing

Banks are warning credit spreads could widen further as investors seek higher premiums to protect against the risk of default. Driving up the borrowing costs for corporates risks further slowing growth in a U.S. economy that some see as edging closer to a downturn.

Dow pops more than 650 points in relief bounce Friday

U.S. consumers are starting to crack as tariffs add to inflation, recession concerns

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

After testing supports above 22.250 Dax is surging again.

Resistances are: 23.300 & 23.475

Supports: 22.935 & 22.685

I am expecting another test of supports, but not necessarily …

[Anonymous]

Engines can be modified to run on alcoholic beverages which are dirt cheap to make in Europe,.. pennies for a few gallons… So the question of running out of the crude oil in the world is a moot point.

But with a 200% tariff on alcoholic products from Europe then maybe Americans may need to pay 3 dollars per gallon at the pump all over again… alcohol is a clean burning fuel and to prove it just try burning a scotch whiskey without first adding ice.

[Anonymous]

XAUUSD will touch “81 ten thou” in time. I won’t say when other than hang on to the gold you own. This call of mine sounds preposterous (even to me!) but trust me on this, as my own credibility/personal reputation and my whole career spanning decades depends on it.

[Mtl JP]

Remember … german war toys manufacturers are uP some 200% since President Trump’s inauguration:

Beyond defence: Stocks set to gain from Germany’s economic revolution

… The CDU/CSU and SPD-led coalition unveiled a €500 billion off-budget infrastructure fund—equivalent to 11.6% of GDP in 2024—to be deployed over the next ten years …

[Anonymous]

I called $$3000.40 gold from such a long time ago… Market touched it and gave it a heavy push beyond that price which has changed market dynamics for the short term.

An additional support to my recent argument of triple and triple is that it was harshly rejected from a slightly higher level above the one I posted,.. Which confirms my model points of the future. I have posted far off model points which have been hit to the pip each and every time for 2 decades, but this is the first time in 2 decades that I have derived future model points so far away that they are unbelievable even to me,…

I come across a lot of stocks very frequently which soar stratospherically but can’t post em’ because of the laws as don’t wanna cause a game stop like run… But my next call will be like a rugby throw into a basketball hoop at the other side of the city.

[Mtl JP]

…”ECB’s Lagarde warns Trump’s trade war could hit global growth, inflation. She indicates that escalating tariffs risk severe economic consequences, while stressing the ECB’s challenge in stabilising inflation amid record-high uncertainty.” 3/14/2025

could … but WILL it ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Well, alot of moving pieces going on…

U of M took some of the wind out of stocks but have since bounced back

USDJPY has backed off despite a risk on mood

EURUSD downside contained while above 1.0850.(note German yields have slipped from earlier highs)

No tariff tweets giving stocks some relief.

[Alex Lugano]

DAX Up Over 1% on Optimism from Fiscal Agreement
Frankfurt’s DAX gained ground to trade more than 1% higher around 22,890 on Friday, outperforming peers, on reports that Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens today on a massive increase in state borrowing.

This comes just days ahead of a parliamentary vote next week.

Meanwhile, trade continued to monitor trade tensions, geopolitical events and corporate news.

[Alex Lugano]

US Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations at Over 2-Year High

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States climbed further to 4.9% in March 2025, the steepest since November 2022, accelerating from February’s 4.3%, according to the preliminary estimate from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey.

This marks the fourth consecutive month of increases.

In the meantime, the five-year outlook quickened to 3.9% in March, from 3.5% in the previous month.

[Author]

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