[Dora]

Second trade –  EURUSD

[Dora]

And my two latest trades – I finished competition with it. Both “retest” signals.

[David Shepherd]

[David Shepherd]

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR = Ugly day for stocks

Break of 5597, if it holds, leaves just 5547 blocking the 5504 low.

Back above 5597-00 is needed to cool the risk.

Reminder, Monday is month/quarter end, often charterized by errati rebalancing flows.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Index Closes Lower Amid German Labor Market Focus

Closes 0.96% Lower
Frankfurt’s DAX dropped 0.9% to close at 22,460 on Friday, marking its third straight session of declines and underperforming its European peers.

Local equities were in the red on Friday after latest data showed continued weakness in the German labor market, weighing on the already-cautious market sentiment due to US tariff concerns.

Technically, DAX went below channel trend line that indicates more losses on a horizon

Close below 22.400 would be very bearish sign and opens a way for 21.700

Resistances above the head: 22.600, 22.750 & 23.0150

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday profit-taking (EURUSD back below 1.0830, USDJPY above 150)… will see if month/quarter end rebalancing on Monday favors the USD as some banks predict… to suggest more than just book squaring EURUSD would need to move below 1.0820, currently support.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DIPS ON THIS HEADLINE

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[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, point taken… 3rd test now will tell the tale.

FWIW Not looking at EURUSD short side as loNg as EURGBP stays bid

[Belgrade Bobby]

Yes Jay, I see it – for me it is just an intermediary level that might serve its purpose…

If 1.08300 slows EUR down today, but it closes tonight above 1.08150/200 we can have a decent run and attack at 1.08600 Monday.

However, if EUR goes straight away for it ( 1.08600) it can easily collapse on Monday…

That is my way of seeing it…

[GVI Forex 2]

Looks lie 1.0830 is too tough again.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, high was 1,0831… keeps 1.0830ish as the key resistance blocking your 1.0860

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

And here we go – 1.08600 next resistance to watch.

If EUR manages to stay above 1.08150/200 till tonight’s close, this should be a start of a new Uptrend.

In case 1.08600 proves difficult to overcome on the first attempt, we might see another test of 1.07300

These are all possibilities and before we see how this day ends it is all just a speculation.

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation:

As noted earlier, USDJPY was correlating with the risk on/off mood… now back to 150 as stocks sink, also weighed down by lower US bond yields as well.

[GVI Forex 2]

Divergence

US500 (down) and EURUSD (up) charts (15 min) look like a mirror (DAX also down) which doesn;t make sense if you believe tariff fallout may be contained.

With that said, EURUSD currently testing 1.0830, no stops on first test,

[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:09 I think that with such energetic price action as sofar 15 min candle maybe too big a hammer
IF one is into scalping style trade
risk is missing out trading exhaust / turn opp
just fwiw

[Topnine]

GOLD (XAU/USD) is currently at price 3086.87 at exactly 3pm here in Nigeria. From my speculation and Analysis Gold is soaring for a higher reach. I see it getting to price range 3096, at least . I have said it before and we all know that Gold is a Bulllish Metal so there is more bias of Gold buying than selling.

If Gold eventually sells (go bearish) it is usually Temporary before it resumes it former bullish position. Gold got to its highest point today at price 3086, and its lowest point was 3053.51

Let us keep an eye on this Metal as it moves swiftly in the market. Let’s all be guided by using a 1-5% Capital risk and a 1:2/3 risk/ reward ratio.
A word is enough for the wise.

Thanks,
TOPNINE.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUsd 15 MINUTE – ONE WAY STREET

As the chart shows it has been one way since tHe no reaction to the PCE report…s0 far 1.0820 is hilding on top, more significant level is 1.0830

[GVI Forex 2]

U of M final consumer sentiment revided down, inflation expectations revised up… see our Economic Data Calendar

Long-term inflation expectations are at a 32 year high

[Mtl JP]

what if bloomberg is willing (or not) purveyor of some hoax or rousse

[GVI Forex 2]

We will see whether the EU definition of concessions matches Trump’s view of it but for now it has eased some of the risk… Key levels 1.0820-30 so far untouched

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pops briefly above 1.08 on this headline… conspiracy theory says someone had the inside scoop on this given the way EURUSD traded bid ahead of it

 

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[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1H Chart

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – Let’s see now how 1.07800/850 holds

[GVI Forex 2]

Higher core PCE… no reaction

[Belgrade Bobby]

And Explanation about Retest – Daily Chart and typical example

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.08200 proved to be a strong Resistance yesterday.

Hence: Close tonight below 1.08000 ( preferably below 1.08900) would be Bearish for tomorrow.

EURUSD Opened just below 1.08000

And that was a typical “Retest” and not re test – English and literature 101 has no place in Trading.

Resistances: 1.07800, 1.08000 & 1.08200

Supports: 1.07600, 1.07450 & 1.07300

4H chart

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar; Carney to speak with Trump today

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

European bourses and US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar

Canadian PM to speak with Trump today; EU has mentioned Apple, Meta and PayPal as part of any potential tariff response

DXY attempts to claw back Thursday’s pressure and is firmer vs peers ex-JPY, which is the best performer after Tokyo CPI

A firmer start for fixed benchmark ahead of US PCE and any tariff/trade developments, no move to the morning’s prelim. HICP figures

Crude choppy, precious metals underpinned by the tone while base metals are lower

Geopolitics in focus amid updates on Panama, Ukraine minerals deal and further damage to the Sudzha station

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[Mtl JP]

104.14 my version of DLRx
making 2x top atm

[GVI Forex 2]

HEATMaP is only a snapshot in time… dollar u=is uop now vs all but USDJPY, which is ell off its low.

There may be a reaction to PCE but tariffs will make it a new ball game for those looking ahead.

[Author]

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