[Mtl JP]

NFP week
–
headlines likely to kick market around in light of “incoming data” this week in the form of ADP, ISM, factory orders and then NFP on friday.

Eur/Usd 1.0710 atm, HoD 1.0722 (and 200dma)
question is what is the player appetite to push the puppy higher or will players consolidate gains and bag some profits to say towards 1.06

[Mtl JP]

WSJ – Nick Timiraos

The Two-Headed Monster Stalking the Economy Has a Name: Stagflation
Tariffs have stoked fears of a dreary combination of weak growth and inflation.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

 
Global Sentiment lifted on tariff optimism, European stocks at highs & Bunds hammered on German spending plans

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

Sentiment lifted after the US Commerce Secretary suggested Trump could potentially reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico, perhaps as soon as Wednesday.

European bourses at session highs; DAX 40 +3% outperforms; US equity futures broadly higher with the RTY +1.2%.

EUR surges on German spending plans, DXY around 1.05 after breaking below its 200DMA.

Bunds battered by Merz’s fiscal reform, USTs await data and tariff updates.
Crude subdued continuing recent action & failing to benefit from China’s support which has bolstered base metals.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – PAUSE BELOW 200 DAY NVA

200 day nva (yellow) around 1,0727 vs high so far at 1.0722

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART –Range for now

Range at 2900-2928 for now but too tight to last for long.

Resistance at 2930-45 continues to block the record 2956 record high.

Supports 2900, 2878-82.

Only back below 2859 would put the low at risk again

[GVI Forex 2]

Timely article just posted in our blog

Will EURUSD Make a Run at 1.10?

[GVI Forex 2]

Random thought:

I think a lot of corporates hedged long EURUSD exposures and some hedge funds used EUR as a favored funding currency.

If true, what we are seeing are position adjustments, squeeze on EUR shorts on a shift in fundamental factors (i.e. German loosening debt break, more EU defense spending, light at the end of the Russia-Ukraine war).

[GVI Forex 2]

EUR strength is not only vs, the USD but on its crosses, causing lags vs the USD elsewhere (e.g. GBPUSD, USDJPY)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOUR – RECORD HIGH LOOMS

Regaining a bid after holding above 22000

Record high 23312… needs to stay above 24000 to make a serious run at it.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Frankly I hate it when they do it all overnight…

Target / Resistance waiting at 1.07350/400

Supports: 1.06950, 1.06750 & 1.06200

This is the Prime example of one of those: you got the direction right, you got the levels even better…but timing…timing sucks…and you can only eat your 6.

So you sit back, try to relax and not rush into something that will hurt you.

[GVI Forex 2]

Higher German yields supporting the EUR and EURUSD

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shoes

The dollar trading weaker, led by the EURUSD, which is in a breakout mode.\

EUR firmer on crosses as well.

USDJPY failed to hold a move above 150.

German bond yields are sharply higher after deal to ease debt restraints (otherwise known as the debt brake)

DAX is up sharply as well.

Zelensky kisses up to Trump by  showing a willingness to negotiate a peace deal.

Trump’s address to Congress unveiled no new policies.

.Trade war still on but CAD and  MXN  rebound suggest caution and hope it  may be a negotiating tactic

Date calendar: US ADP employment and ISM services PMI.

[GVI Forex 2]

This is currently more of EUR focused market than a USD market (note EUR crosses as well as EURUSD).

With that said EURUSD’s role as the anti-dollar has put the USD in general on the defensive.

[GVI Forex 2]

Wednesday’s Highlights

Click below for previews

WED: China Two-Sessions, Australian GDP (Q4), Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Feb), Swiss CPI (Feb), EZ/UK/US FinalServices/Composite PMIs (Feb), EZ PPI (Jan), US ADP (Feb), US ISM Services PMI (Feb).

[GVI Forex 2]

1 hour until Trump’s address.

There will be alot of headlines from what is generally a partisam speech.

Republicans will cheer, Democrats will stay silent.

[GVI Forex 2]

Thisa was a trigger for the risk on reaction USDCAD AND USDMXN drop AND usadjpy pop towards

try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4 HOUR – 20000 holds for now’

The pause above 20000 has potential TO SAY that the low could be in but only confirmed if 21063+ is regained. .

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR – Is the low in?

Chart suggests the low COULD be in but to confirm 5872 would need too be broken.

Meanwhile, 5900 has replaced 6000 as the pivotal level.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –Tough call

This is a tough one to call with retracement momentum broken but as noted earlier XAUUSD faces layers of resistance at 2920 (briefly broken), 2930 and 2945 ahead of the record 2956 high… today’s high 2927

Only back below 2859 would put the low at risk again.

[GVI Forex 2]

Last pop in EURUSD coincided with a major bank call for a moive to 1.10

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

4.10 provided some support to Nio for now.

Now it needs to go above 4.45 to get back into game.

4.00 is a very important level – if Nio wants to be a player it has to stay above it.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Support at 2.20 held its ground and we have opportunity for more Up tomorrow.

3.00 is a resistance that can prove difficult to overcome right now, so don’t expect miracles.

2.40 should provide a platform for next launch.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks bouncing… bond yields moving up… USDJPY higher either from risk on and/or a firmer EURJOY

[GVI Forex 2]

May be giuvi8ng the EUR a boost

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[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

22.200 – Major support needs to hold if DAX is to continue Up right now.

Current pattern signals a Sell off , but in my experience stranger things happened then if DAX is to continue Up from around here. Just saying what I know…

If this drop was a result of a savage profit taking, it wouldn’t surprise me to see 22.200 holding and DAX continuing its trip…

But we can’t know that, so we have to be ready for trend change.

21.450 is another strong point that can provide footing to it.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Coin is forming a nice Bullish formation – needs to close tonight above 87.200 for next Leg Up tomorrow.

Resistances: 91.000, 93.800 & 95.000

Supports: 85.000, 83.200 & 78.000

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

EUR coming close to 1.06050 resistance.

Expect significant pull backs tomorrow , before Up again.

Supports at : 1.05600, 1.05350 & 1.04900

Resistances : 1.06050, 1.06300 & 1.06800

Once above 1.06300 first target is 1.07450

[GVI Forex 2]

This was a textbook day (for me st least)

EURUSD sell on EURGBP sell order gave a buying opportunity treating it as a correction … I have discussed this many times… contact me if you want more info

Reaction to news is what matters… EURUSD reacting to German defense spending need

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD spikes higher as trade war rhetoruc heats up

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[GVI Forex 2]

Once EURGBP ran out ouf steam (order filled) and bounced, EURUSD selling eased but would need to regain 1.0528-30 to regain a strong bid.

[Author]

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