[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Yen has to first take out that 151 – it is EMA 50 acting as a barrier.

Supports: 150.050, 149.300 & 149.050

Resistances: obviously 151.000, 151.250 & 152.450

Pattern wise – it looks good for tomorrows break above 151, as long as the day closes above 150.100

With so much fundamentals in front of us, it is not wise to try to predict so much in advance.

 

[Mtl JP]

Lugano …”not a good thing for the economy” …

BUT President Trump tariffs policies are outstandigly good for trading FX
which is the main focus for me at least on this forum

which is something that can be explained to some folks BUT it can not be made understood by them

[Gunther Salzburg]

Is it time to start Buying USDJPY?

I think it is going for 157

Any suggestions?

[Alex Lugano]

US Dollar Index

US Dollar index hasn’t been doing much lately. We just got the strong downward push triggered by the German defence spending news which saw EU-US yield differentials jumping in favour of the Euro. As a reminder, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is basically EUR/USD upside down as the Euro makes up for 60% of the index.

This is harder to square but the greenback will most likely be influenced by the risk sentiment following the catalyst as positive news should keep rate cuts expectations around two for this year, while negative news could push those to four or more.

 

[Alex Lugano]

The markets are setting up for big moves on April 2nd
The key date for the markets is next Wednesday when the US will finally unveil the tariffs plan. Trump has been calling it “Liberation Day” and that will likely be the same for the markets as uncertainty has been historically high.

The expectations for tariffs rates is around 9% for universal and 50% on China. Q1 has been a tough quarter for the markets as the tariffs noise increased the volatility and sent markets into a spin. Uncertainty is not a good thing for the economy and we’ve been seeing that cited a lot across many business surveys.

Therefore, the best approach from a risk management perspective would be to just wait for the key date and start taking positions after the tariffs plan announcement as we will likely get some long lasting trends from there.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD may be getting some relief from this headline

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Alex Lugano]

                         FX option expiries for 26 March 10am New York cut

[GVI Forex 2]

What I love about our forum is you never know when some post will catch your attention. This one from yesterday I kept on my blotter

March 25, 2025 at 8:59 pm#
ST London
Participant

EurUsd has a large bid at 1.0770

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

BTC failed again in front of EMA 50

It needs support at 86.400 to hold and underpin it higher

Has to make it above 90K today-tomorrow in order to escape downward pressures.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s see about that 1.0770 buy order… 1.0750-65 below it.

[Dora]

First trade today – EURUSD 30 min – perfect time, perfect 1,2,3 signal. I am increasing size using previous day profits.

[GVI Forex 2]

Chart updated in this timely blog post

What is this USDCAD chart telling us about tariffs?

[Edikan Matthew]

EURUSD Price below the 50 EMA, stochastic below 50%, breakout of the 1 hour bearish candle, I’m going short, take profit at 1 ATR, stop loss at 3 ATR

[Edikan Matthew]

[GVI Forex 2]

Durable goods orders report beats but volaitle data that is subject to big revisions.

See our Economic Data Calendar

UK Spring Statement due next

[David Shepherd]

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US futures modestly lower amid tariff reports, GBP lags & EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

Tariffs in focus amid reports that Trump could implement copper tariffs in weeks, elsewhere reports that Canada could find some reprieve

European bourses opened firmer but have since slumped, US futures are in the red but only modestly so

GBP lags after UK CPI, EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08, USD/JPY rebounded overnight but is off highs

Gilts gapped higher on data and extended but have retreated to opening levels into the Spring Statement, USTs softer while Bunds are firmer but only modestly so

Crude continues to inch higher with a handful of factors underpinning, TTF slips as talks continue, Copper soared on tariff updates but has since pulled back

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[David Shepherd]

Waiting for the mystery

[Robert Ireland]

EURUSD Daily chart

Fibbo retracements

50% is at roughly 1.07500

[Alex Lugano]

Market Could Be Underpricing U.S. Tariff Risks For Euro

The market is underpricing the risk to the euro from U.S. reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, ING’s Chris Turner says in a note. “The EU (led by Germany) runs a large trade surplus with the U.S. and will likely, alongside China, be at the forefront of Washington’s reset on global trade.” The euro last trades flat at $1.0793 and ING expects it to fall to $1.05 by the end of the second quarter due to U.S. tariffs.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – ger30 4H

Resistance at 23.200 held firmly and sent DAX towards supports : 22.950 & 22.700

So far they are holding.

Next 4h bar opens in cca 50 min, and depending on the close of this one we’ll have following:

–          Above 22.970 will give a chance for DAX to try Up again

–          Below 22.950 DAX might dive seriously

Last support is at 22.725 – loss of opens a way for 22.425

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY – 4 DAYS IN A ROW

1.08 has printed 4 days in a row… the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken (note what happened at 1.09).

Key supports: 1.0777 (double bottom) , 1.0765

Key resistance: 1.0830

See JP’s timely post about EURGBP topping out and how EURUSD lost its bid after.

[Mtl JP]

eurdlr 1.08011

the tease elements are that London is still playing, officially NY is not yet playing and eurgbp rally looks like it s done

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –  Glass half empty or half filled?

Continues to consolidate between 2999 – 3038,

Glass half fllled: biding its time for another run up unless 3000 is firmly broken… above 3038 would be needed to end lingering retracement risk and put 3047-57 in play again

Glass half empty:  lingering retracement risk while below 3038… would need to break 2999 to extend it

[Mtl JP]

GVI … that HOT eurgbp is now cooling off from looks

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

… uncertain markets looking ahead to quarter end and reciprocal tariff day on April 2

Mixed USD

EURUSD focus still on 1.08 after another test of 1.0777 (2-day double bottom)… support coming fro a firmer EURGBP and lesser extent EURJPY

GBPUSD lower after cooler UK inflation (EURGBP firms)

USDJPY back above 150 after holding above 149.49 yesterday

USDCAD a touch weaker dezpite tariff uncertainty

U.S. stocks a touch weaker

XAUUSD in a wait and see mode

Looking ahead… light US data calendar, awaiting next Trump headline

[Mtl JP]

looks like overnite eurgbp has something to do with the euro

[Mtl JP]

8:59 ST London – my toy shows 1.0776 as not just overnit but also 3x low (on the hourly bar)

thanks again for your 8:59 !

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR – WHY LEVELS MATTER

This chart was posted early on today and see how  USDJPY came down just above 149.49 key support (low was 149.53)

This is no coincidence… Levels and patterns formed by the Amazing Trader charting algo matter

If you would like a 30 day free trial, go to the member benefits page in GTA (if not a member sign up, free)

[Mtl JP]

ST 8:59 not going to ask how you know that BUT if it is the case
it sounds like an excellent reason to go and tickle that pricepoint

[Author]

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