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EURUSD Daily
Resistances: 1.11800. 1.12050 & 1.12250
Supports: 1.11450, 1.10950 & 1.10650
Pattern wise : close tonight below 1.11850 would call for another test Down tomorrow.
Right now I cannot tell you how it is going to close tomorrow night, but it has to test supports.
Ideally EURUSD should take out 1.10650 and go for 1.09750 – but it is never ideal from the moment market started being way too occupied with tariffs.
Nvidia – NVDA
And as I said days ago : Break of 121.70 would open a gate for run all the way to 158.00
Nvidia broke from Downtrend and now it can freely fly.
Resistances: 135.00, 143.75 & 149.60
Supports: 127.00, 123.00 & 120.65
Expect some pull backs, profit takings etc, but as long as above 120.65 it is targeting 153 – previous high and 158.00 later on
NIO Inc.
Nio lost mojo and some of the momentum where it shouldn’t.
Danger is that it might slip down tomorrow to 3.95 , and if so next comes 3.60 – again
However, if it manages to overcome 4.30, resistance at 4.50 would be in range for takeover.
Right now it doesn’t look good for Nio, but let’s see how it develops till end of the day and tomorrow.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR – What the Amazing Trader is saying
Along with the NZD, the clear outperformer, up almost 1.5% today
One obstacle remains at .6464 ahead of the recent .6514 high.
Support on dips while above .6400-20
AT = The Amazing Trader… get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link in the menu bar at the top of this page)
Fed to stay patient amid cooling trade war and inflation
Key points:
·        Wall Street firms lower recession predictions after U.S.-China trade deal
·        Fed now expected to deliver gradual rate cuts starting later in the year
·        Economists anticipate goods prices to rise due to tariffs
·        April inflation came in cooler than expected
Tamer-than-expected inflation and a significant de-escalation of a U.S.-China trade war are easing fears of a sharp squeeze on American households and businesses in coming months, prompting Wall Street firms to pare predictions of a recession and giving the Federal Reserve room to leave interest rates where they are.
JP Morgan Chase and Barclays were among firms adjusting their forecasts on Tuesday to reflect a more benign economic trajectory after the United States and China reached a deal over the weekend to reduce the most punitive of the tariffs they had put on each other since early April.
JP Morgan economists now see the chance of a recession as less than 50%; Barclays economists no longer have recession in their forecast at all. Both had earlier expected high tariffs to hit consumers and firms hard, putting the brakes on spending and economic activity.
Financial markets also repriced after the U.S.-China agreement, slashing bets that the Fed would need to start cutting rates by July to cushion an economic downturn. Traders now see just two interest-rate cuts by year’s end, beginning in September.
A Labor Department report Tuesday showing consumer prices rose 2.3% in April, the smallest year-over-year gain in more than four years, solidified those market bets and the expectation that Fed policymakers will deliver gradual rate cuts later in the year instead of taking earlier, more aggressive action.
“There’s been a fear that tariffs are going to push inflation higher, and they may still, but today’s data at least gives investors a sense of relief that inflation is still moving in the right direction,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO at Longbow Asset Management.
Still “uncertainty about tariff policies and implications for inflation going forward will keep them on the sidelines for now,” wrote economists at Raymond James.
The Fed last week held short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where they have been since December.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the time that he saw so far no signal in the data of a crumbling economy, and with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target and trade policy evolving rapidly it was the right move to wait for more clarity before adjusting rates.
USDCAD 4 HOUR – What is AT showing
CAD is the only currency down vs the USD today.
At a crossroads with a double top at 1.4015 and then a giant void (on daily charts) of almost 300 pips.
While 1.40 is clearly pivotal in setting he tone,(below cools the upside risk)Â there is support while above 1.3957 and 1.3915
USDJPY 4h
Yen stalled in front of the resistance I mentioned yesterday – 148.800
Now to be able to go through it, it needs to stay above 146.450
Close tonight above it would call for another Leg Up – a big one…even 200 pips…
But let’s see how it develops till the day’s end.
Immediate support right now at 147.600
US OPEN
US and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days sparking risk-on sentiment
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.
6 Things You Need to Know
US and China agree to bring down reciprocal tariffs by 115ppts for 90 days, sparking immediate risk on price action; DXY, ES, Crude bid; XAU & Fixed hit.
US President Trump said he will sign an executive order on Monday at 09:00EDT with prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices to be reduced almost immediately by 30%-80% and the US is to pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.”
Ukraine and European leaders said they agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on sea, land and air starting on May 12th and peace negotiations will start in that period if there is a ceasefire, while they said if Russia fails to comply, they will respond with massive sanctions and increased military aid.
Stocks surge on US-Sino joint announcement, but pharmaceuticals hit by Trump.
DXY and CNY surge on US-China trade; haven assets such as Bonds/JPY are in the red.
Industrial commodities boosted by US-China updates; Spot gold slumps amid haven outflow
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