[Mtl JP]

ST London 8:15 “Europe Inc’s tariff misery” part 2
2) re Nomura’s advice to use more “options given uncertainty around future cashflows”.
YaaH , cashflow … more important in the life of a business than bottom line.

[Mtl JP]

It appears there is now a word count limit to the size of post, hence I am trying 3 parts:
–
ST London 8:15 “Europe Inc’s tariff misery”
I got a kick out of two elements:
1) “seismic shift in Germany towards heavy spending” (“stimulus” hahaha) of which players have already made heavy heavy scads of money having played german weapons manufacturers (sofar a practical joke in itself inside the EU).

[ST London]

From the NYT article

The question among policymakers and investors is whether the recent jump in the euro and other euro-denominated assets is simply a short-term rebalancing of portfolios that heavily favored the dollar or the beginning of a long-term trend in which the euro firmly encroaches on the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant currency.

[ST London]

The Dollar’s Weakness Creates an Opportunity for the Euro. Can It Last?

European officials see the concern over the “safe haven” reputation of U.S. financial assets as a chance to attract investors

NYT

[ST London]

This article is worth reading

Unexpected euro surge adds to Europe Inc’s tariff misery

Summary

Euro’s climb could curb earnings by 2-3%, analysts say
Companies have already flagged FX risk in Q1 earnings
Firms treading carefully in seeking forex protection

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD 4h – Bitcoin

Supports: 94.015, 93.600 & 93.050

Resistances: 94.420, 94.550 & 95.350

Bitcoin has to stay above 94K in this bar if it wants to advance further.

Loss of 93.050 would lead it to 91.400/600 area

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.13700, 1.13500 & 1.13350

Resistances: 1.13850, 1.14000 & 1.14150

1.14000 major obstacle

Bullish pattern is forming, but if cut short at 1.14 , 1.13050 & 1.12650 are immediate targets.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4h – Preparation for the day ahead

Supports: 1.33100, 1.32850 & 1.32700

Resistances: 1.33200, 1.33350 & 1.33500

Important level to watch – 1.33500 – break of would open a gate for attack at 1.33800 and beyond.

1.32700 serves as a base for further moves Up.

If lost, full correction will occur, leading the pair to 1.31 and even 1.29

[Mtl JP]

just fwiw
–
Apr 25, 2025 Bloomberg:
“Bank of America warns to sell the rebound in U.S. stocks and dollar”
The dollar is in the midst of a longer term depreciation while the shift away from U.S. assets has further to go, the bank says

…”The dollar is in the midst of a longer term depreciation while the shift away from U.S. assets has further to go, according to the team led by Michael Hartnett. The trend would continue until the U.S. Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, the U.S. reaches a trade deal with China and consumer spending stays resilient.” …

[Mtl JP]

what – investors are worried ?!

WSJ – A Reckoning for the Magnificent Seven Tests the Market
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are collectively off to their worst start since the 2022 slide, worrying investors.

[GVI Forex 2]

Key event risk on Monday is the Canadian elections

See a detailed preview

[Mtl JP]

the suspense of torpedoes of opportunities

RTRS – Trump’s next 100 days to feature trade deals, peace talks, ‘torpedoes,’ officials say – By Jeff Mason and Steve Holland, April 27, 202512:03 AM

… one official said Trump has “torpedoes” in store but did not explain what those were. …

[Mtl JP]

Trump trade and tariff policy – Good Or Bad? You can’t have your cake and eat it too
–
I see current market as a rollercoaster.

One outstanding feature of it is that collectively many participants and analysts are in angst about the “ride”, akin to parent watching and contemplating am I going to let my kid on the ride given the peaks (slow ride up) and then thrilling almost 90′ fast, twisting and thrilling plunges down.

Fear, and in current evirenment of analyst groupthink negative assessment lend a “negative” and thus bear thesis – to most but not all investment assests.

The trading tactic here is to play short and be prepared to go long as assets go ultra cheap and whose odds are to appreciate.

Like Solomon’s ability to discern truth from false (ref two women arguing about a child)

[GVI Forex 2]

In Our Blog

Trump trade and tariff policy – Good Or Bad?

You can’t have your cake and eat it too

[GVI Forex 2]

A full economic calendar

Newsquawk Week Ahead Previews 28th April-2nd May 2025

Newsquawk Highlights include US NFP, ISM Mfg. PMI, PCE, GDP, BoJ, EZ CPI, Aussie CPI, EZ and UK GDP

[GVI Forex 2]

In our Blog

President Trump Flip-Flop Strikes Again – A Whipsaw Week for the Markets

[GVI Forex 2]

Cross flow orders seem to have run their course
Focus now on stocks… risk on.. US500 testing 5520… see earlier post

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

While my focus has been on EURGBP, there has been another set of cross flows driving the market… JPY selling that has made USDJPY (higher) the outperformer while other currencies are back near unchanged vs the dollar.

How do we know crosses are driving the market?

When two currencies move in opposite directions vs the dollar you can assume there is a real money order in the market.

[GVI Forex 2]

This is a good time to revisit this article

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

 

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, the 15 minute gives a clearer picture., then choose your time frame to trade

 

[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:47 logic is one thing. Tactic is quite something else

I suggest 15 minute chart is like a 5lb hammer for a 2D nail
in a potentiall fast n violent reaction environment theme

likely leave you missing out scalping trades

5 min AT probably better tool setup, just imo

[GVI Forex 2]

I hope you are following my logic… EURGBP .8541 c=> EURUSD 1.1370

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP .8545 => EURUSD 1.1380… once the cross tops out (order nis filled) EURUSD should lose some of its bid

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.272% 10:38:12 AM

IF yields continue to go lower recession and lower econ numbers (jobs etc) would come in closer on market thematic

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 1 HOUR CCHART

i posted this late yeswterday… high was 5522 before ndip back below 5500

Moving closer to 5500-20, which, if regained, would suggest more scope on the SP500 upside.

This suggests a cautious end to the week for SP500 where 6450-57 needs to hold to keep the focus on 5500.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.4380-ish

players appear to not price ECB’s yakkers cumulative dovish comments

maybe players are more trying to position for potential dollar boosting headlines into / over the week-end re tariffs

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART – Gives a clue

You can see how this ross ncan give a clue to the spot flows

[Alex Lugano]

Dollar set for first weekly gain since March on signs of easing in US-China tensions

EURUSD GBPUSD

Key points:

·         Dollar set for first weekly rise since mid-March

·         China grants some U.S. tariff exemptions

·         U.S. negotiations with allies Japan, South Korea making progress

·         Sterling ignores strong UK retail sales

The dollar headed for its first weekly gain since mid-March on Friday after China granted some tariff exemptions for U.S. imports, raising hopes that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies may be closer to abating.

The U.S. currency has been whipsawed this week by conflicting signs for a thaw in the fraught relations between Washington and Beijing.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of their tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway.

By Friday, a number of businesses that had been notified of the changes said China had granted some exemptions from its 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and was asking companies to identify the goods that could be eligible.

[Alex Lugano]

A Historic Gold Rush Is Under Way, From Wall Street to Main Street Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

·         Brent crude oil is down 0.8% at $65.13 a barrel.

·         European benchmark gas is down 2% at 32.92 euros a megawatt-hour.

·         Gold futures are down 2% at $3,281 a troy ounce.

·         LME three-month copper futures are up 0.9% at $9,455 a metric ton.

 

Donald Trump’s trade war–and the shock waves it has sent through the global economy and financial markets–has spurred surging investment in gold, one of the market’s most time-tested safe harbours. The price of gold hit a new intraday high on Tuesday of more than $3,500 a troy ounce. Even when adjusted for inflation, it is nipping at the heels of a record that dates back to 1980.

Comex Gold Delivery Intentions Breakdown – Apr 25

[GVI Forex 2]

Final U of M consumer sentiment due at top of the hour… subscribers get it a few minutes early

[Author]

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