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Sterling snaps seven-day streak of gains against the euro
Sterling slid against the euro on Wednesday after seven straight days of gains, while it rose against a weakened dollar as the market shed the initial optimism from a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions at the beginning of the week.
The euro was up 0.35% to 84.33 pence, after seven consecutive days of declines.
It hovered around early April levels, halting a progressive slide against the pound from a peak at 87.38 pence on April 11.
“It does seem that the 84 level is offering pretty good support,” Rabobank’s head of FX strategy Jane Foley said, adding that sterling may struggle to advance further against the euro unless growth data starts to significantly improve in Britain relative to market expectations.
“There is a risk that growth could come in below the 1% level for 2025. If those risks increase, I think sterling will again be on the back foot against the euro.”
British GDP data for both March and the first quarter as a whole will be released on Thursday.
It will give initial hints at where 2025 growth lands, but could also complicate the picture. Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, expects the quarterly data to show a significant jump, but a short-lived one, and that GDP will shrink in the second quarter.
That adds additional uncertainty for investors trying to judge the Bank of England’s policy path.
Technicals – Mixed
Oil Falls on Trade Uncertainty, U.S. Weekly Inventory Prospects
Oil prices extend losses in afternoon trade as lingering uncertainties around global trade negotiations and a projected build in U.S. crude stockpiles weigh on sentiment. Brent crude falls 1.1% to $65.88 a barrel, while WTI is down 1.2% to $62.92 a barrel. Prices climbed in the previous trading session, supported by a significant de-escalation between the U.S. and China, a cooler-than-expected inflation report and fresh sanctions on Iranian oil. “Despite this boost, markets remained cautious,” analysts at IG say. Meanwhile, OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged as it prepares to accelerate output hikes for a second straight month in June, and lowered supply growth estimates from countries outside of the OPEC+ group.
DAX
Dax holding for now, but time is of essence here…
If the previous high at 23.911 becomes an issue, it might have to go to consolidation phase.
Support is at 23.445 & 23.365
It doesn’t look capable of going higher right now, but if it closes today above 23.680 it would be a bullish set up for tomorrow.
Watch for headlines just in case, especially with GOLD bulls trying to prevent another run at 3200
USDJPY 1 HOUR – What AT is showing
Retreat from 148+ continues
Next support 145.70=87, then the gap
Bottom of opening week gap: 145.37
Back above 147.21 would be needed to negate the risk
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EURUSD Daily
One of the reasons why I insist on Intraday trading and using smaller time frames is – especially lately that obnoxious Trump Effect on the markets.
It takes only one tweet ( or X-ing ) to screw all the patterns, technicals and charts….
Resistances: 1.12600, 1.12950 & 1.13050
Supports: 1.12100, 1.11900 & 1.11300
1.13050 is the level that separates EURUSD from being Bullish
Right now the pressure is Up
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing?
A struggle to regain a bid as sideways trade continues
Current range: 3207/`15 (blocks 3200) – 3257/65 (blocks opening week gap)
So it is a matter of glass half empty (downside at risk unless gap is filled and beyond)) or half full (downside limited while above 3200)
Bitcoin miners halt sales as BTC gains 20% since hash ribbon ‘buy’ signal
Key points:·        Bitcoin miners have stopped selling their BTC in what may signal the end of a lengthy distribution streak.
·        Over the past month, miner wallet balances have increased by around 2,700 BTC.
·        Hash Ribbons data shows good times continuing for both miners and BTC price strength.
Bitcoin BTCUSD accumulation by miners is back as network participants swap selling for holding at $75,000 lows.
Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode shows that miners are now actively adding to their BTC reserves.
Bitcoin miners buck months of selling
Bitcoin hitting multimonth lows in April sparked a sea change in miner behaviour, with a lengthy selling streak reversing into significant accumulation.
Glassnode shows that shortly after BTCUSD bottomed just below $75,000, the balance in miner wallets itself found a floor, only to then start increasing along with price.
Miner wallets held 1,794,622 BTC on April 12, while as of May 13, they had reached 1,797,330 BTC — an increase of 2,708 BTC or 0.15%.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
… the dollar extending its retreat with most filling opening week gaps
USDJPY yet to fill its gap (145.37) despite being an outperformer today
If you are looking for a USD indicator level, EURUSD 1.12 in iys rpe as the anti-dollar
US stocks and bonds steady
Gold is lower as it continues to struggle to regain a bid
Light news day
Dollar Falls as Trump Repeats Rate-Cut Calls After Lower InflationÂ
The dollar stays under pressure after President Trump repeated his calls for interest-rate cuts following Tuesday’s lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Trump again accused Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of being “too late” to lower rates on his Truth Social platform. Inflation eased to 2.3% on year in April against the 2.4% expected by economists in a WSJ survey. At first glance, the dollar’s fall after the data seems logical given the prospect of faster rate cuts, Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. However, it could also reflect the fact that Trump will feel vindicated given the lack of tariff effect in the data, she says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 100.895.
DXY Chart
EURUSD 4 HOUR – What AT is showing
2 red AT lines (AT Directional Indicator) indicates potential for a low and change in direction.
To confirm, 1.1242 would need to be broken… if not, risk stays on the downside
In any case, 1.12 will dictate whether the bounce has legs to it.
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This will not be the last US trade deal China will attack for unfair competition\
NAS100 (NASDAQ) DAILY – What AT is showing
Who would have thought that we would be talking about the record high just a few weeks ago?
Well, here we are as the record 22224 high looms above.
To make a run at it, 21059 would need to become support.
Only back below 19584 (or a clear failure to break the high) would negate the upside risk.
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US500 (SP500) DAILY – What AT is showing
Uptrend trying to build momentum for a run at 6005
With no nearby key support, look for 5900 to dictate whether a run at 6000 is in the cards.
In any case, only below 5785-5815 would negate the upside risk.
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EURUSD Daily
Resistances: 1.11800. 1.12050 & 1.12250
Supports: 1.11450, 1.10950 & 1.10650
Pattern wise : close tonight below 1.11850 would call for another test Down tomorrow.
Right now I cannot tell you how it is going to close tomorrow night, but it has to test supports.
Ideally EURUSD should take out 1.10650 and go for 1.09750 – but it is never ideal from the moment market started being way too occupied with tariffs.
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