[GVI Forex 2]

It is either consolidation or retracement as long as the record highs stay untouched.

[GVI Forex 2]

No nukes for Iran

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[GVI Forex 2]

Is someone taking money off the table?

Gold down
Stocks down
USD up

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields remain elevated and supporting the USD..USDCAD testing 1.3900 (see earlier post)

 

[Mtl JP]

Scott Bessent US Secretary of the Treesury and defacto Chair of the Fed

‘DROP DEAD’: Bessent’s blunt bailout warning for NYC with CNBC’s Maria B

…”very concerned” bessent: “we need rate relief, at least back to neutral” …

[GVI Forex 2]

Are US stocks ready for a pause?:

While betting on a top has been a losing one, signs are pointing towards at least a pause as long as the record high at 6702 stays intact.

Supports are from 6612-40 but it is 6551 that needs to hold to prevent a dagger being thrown into the uptrend.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Asking again: Is it time for GOLD to take a pause?

I asked this question earlier after a failure to reach 3800 as GOLD”s meteoric rise was overdue for a breather,

Dependent on 3735-50 holding to contain the downside an  keep 3800 on the radar.

Otherwise, risk shifts to 3700-12.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s hot and what’s not?

What’s Hot and What’s Not?

What’s hot?

The dollar is trading firmer, reversing yesterday’s weaker trade

Crude oil is up

Bitcoin is firmer

What’s not?

Currencies are down but (so far) EURUSD holding above support (1.1726) and USDJPY holding a test of resistance (148.78).

Gold backing off from a run at 3800 and consolidating

US bonds a touch weaker  (US 10 year is down a touch after a bounce i 10-year yields off 4.10%)

What’s hot/not?

US stocks consolidating below recently set record highs

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1744
–
now that 1.1730-25 zone held support
1.18+ (low 1.18-teens) should be next

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD remains on the defensive but damage not fatal

To build momentum to the downside, 1.1726 (stops?) would need to be taken out.

Otherwise, focus stays on 1.1750 to set the intra-day tone with 1.1726 the consolidation range.

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[Mtl JP]

EURUSD 1.1731 , low 1.1728 sofar

I was not impressed with jerome’s yak yesterday, neither, I guess was the market as jerome ventured out couple of time to explain some accronyms or econ theory terms. I suppose the important thing jerome re-said that his FED is independent from political influence. Probably it also did him some good to hear the applause with which his audience showered him in the end.

re DLR: It is unlikely that USD has significant strenghtening left to go.

hahaha back to 1.1741 as I finish typing …

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Specifics

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Equity Open

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY Entering the sticky zone

148.78 (tested) as line of defense before key 149.13

It has been one-way since 147.45 so use shorter-term charts for supports while bid above 148.

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Crypto Update

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD may have taken a hit on this

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[GVI Forex 2]

Higher US bond yields may be supporting the dollar (JPY underperforming)… note bounce off a 4.10% low yield today).

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.1750 once again the focal point with the nkey 1.1726 low looming below.

USDJPY extending above 148, GBPUSD below 1.35.

[Adam Global]

TP HIT🎯 

EURUSD 📉 

[GVI Forex 2]

Has USDCAD quietly been leading the way?

Building upward momentum that would need to take out 1.3890, exposed while above 1.3863. Fallback support 1.3830-50.

Key levels at 1.3890, 1.3924, 1.4015

USDCAD 4 HIUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

… Miran …

time to keep an eye on to mortgages important rates
5-YR 3.675
10-YR 4.114

As of Tuesday, September 23, 2025, the national average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.39% APR, according to NerdWallet.
Bankrate reports a slightly different average of 6.45% APR for the same loan type, based on a survey of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

After voting for a supersize rate cut last week, Stephen Miran has now provided the intellectual cover for President Trump’s calls for drastically lower interest rates. If Miran is right, everyone else is wrong—not just the Federal Reserve, but investors and independent economists too….

Stephen Miran’s Rate-Cut Arguments Don’t Add Up

[Adam Global]

📉 SELL more EURUSD till 1.17500

[Mtl JP]

GVI 9:11 re Gold

this puppy has the ability to rattle peoples’ imagination
be they individuals or state players

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD back on the defensive

Weaker German IFO may have been a trigger for EURUSD selling after running into sellers and not stops at 1.1820.

Now dependent on 1.1762 holding to check the downside or 1.1750 and the 1.1726 low come on the radar.

In any case, 1.18 remains pivotal, upside limited unless regained.

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Is it time for GOLD to take a pause?

As I have been saying, when in unchartered waters. big figures (round numbers) such as 3600, 3700,3800 increase in importance in the absence of any key resistance other than the new record high (3791).

BUT not all big figures should be treated the same. In this regard, 2500 and 3800 (not 3600 or 3700) are key pivotal big figures that can have an added influence on trading..

So keep an eye on 3800 as a failure to firmly take it out would force a pause while a break would raise talk of 4000.

Supports: 3735-50 block a return to 3700 (3750 = Power of 50 level).

Resistance: 3786-91 guard 3800

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a Heatmap shows…

… the dollar trading firmer after not following through on a softer close. This comes in a market struggling to come up with a common theme to drive trading after a period where expectations over Fed rate cuts was a hyper focus.

Pivotal levels: EURUSD 1.18, USDJPY 148, GPBUSD 1.35 setting respective tones.

In order of relative strenght vs. the USD

1. AUD

2. CAD

3. NZD

4. CHF

5. GBP

6. EUR

7. JPY

[Mtl JP]

currently sitting at 1.1769 and euro breaking recent bottom range
1.1725-20 looms bellow

[Author]

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