[GVI Forex 2]

Posted in our Global Traders Association (GTA)

Trainmg Tip of the Week: Beware of a New Year Whipsaw

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[Mtl JP]

I am reminded of Louis L’Amour’s western tale: “Trap of Gold”

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0449 high so far

thin market , degenerate trading operators having a ball!

[Anonymous]

DXY

This is the first time in many years that I have eyeballed the dxy charts, and I have never seen anything like this in decades. This has got to be one of the most powerful looking charts, as it is full of “brute strength” that it’s mind blowing!!!.

My projection is that it’s best to stay out of the way if not sure on directional flows (on individual pairs) which I forecast for sexy-dxy as upwardly without resistance to the moves other than just plain backing and filing.

Trump is the right guy for the next decade and I think he can run for office for another term although he has not yet attended the inauguration ceremony for his second time in office, and depending on his health I say he will win another consecutive term. Just don’t back stab him, if anyone got a problem then write him a letter and he will address the concerns immediately.

Strong dollar is here to stay!!

Asian pairs will fly like kites!!

With love,… 😉

Rafe…

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATRMAP shows:

Pre-end of year trading flows doiminating.

USD down a touch with commodity currencies so far outperforming.

EURUSD trading with a bid but so far staying below 1.0447-50

USDJPY tested just above 158, which remains the current line in the sand amid verbal intervention threats.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – KRY LRVRL CITED

It is hard to draw conclusions at this time as price action is driven more by end-of-year flows although generally there are some looking to position for the start of the new year.

EURUSD though has traded with a bid after breaking a 6-day pattern around 1.04 on Friday

See The Magic Levels Trading Pattern Strikes Again

With that said, resistance is clear at 1.0447, suggests using n1.,0467-50 as only firmly above it would postpone the risk to the downside and shift the focus back to 1.05.

[Anonymous]

Uh… so difficult is nowadays to tell anything. We are just observers of the whole, of an ocean of sharks and turtles. Of a crazy global soup decoupling.

As Artificial Intelligence is Hallucinating, so are Humans. Even those at very high levels are.

A World that to me seems about ending and another one, hopefully better, will come.
But this might take yet long time. Am not even sure we will witness It.

In between I’ll try to avoid to make forecasts the classic way, yet daily/weekly charts seem very strange, risky to me. Just observe the USD Idx.

What else. Debts never been so huge and at some point this will become unsustainable. Might take yet some that too, some say. But no more than one or two Years. Yet given recent from Yellen, we might be closer to there than most think.

Regarding Central Banks the neo-Wicksellian framework stipulates that economic instability cannot be eliminated but only minimised.
And this too is an euphemism, since we know at some point We are going to have a Minsky Moment.

Best Wishes in 2025

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off Monday is the US Chicago PMI for December. Forecasters expect the Chicago purchasers report to show regional business conditions remain dismal at year end with the PMI at 42.7 in December after dropping unexpectedly to a very contractionary 40.2 in November from an already bleak 41.6 in October and 46.6 in September.

The US pending home sales in November is expected to continue September and October’s recovery with forecasters looking for sales up 0.9 percent in November. Even though mortgage rates rose in November, a less pricey housing market was expected to lure more buyers in November.

On Tuesday, US Case-Shiller home price index for October is expected to continue its gradual slowing in the rate of annual home price inflation with the 20-city composite index up 4.6 percent in September, down from 5.2 percent in August and 5.9 percent in July. Forecasters now look for more slowing to 4.3 percent in October. The consensus also looks for a moderate 0.2 percent increase on the month after a 0.2 percent increase in September. US FHFA house price on the other hand is expected up 0.5 percent on the month after a larger 0.7 percent increase in the prior month.

Thursday, China Caixin PMI manufacturing is estimated to see firming to 51.6 in December from 51.5 in November. The Caixin index continues to outperform the official manufacturing PMI, which has barely broken above the 50 neutral level.

Manufacturing PMIs for Germany, France, UK and the Eurozone are expected to continue contracting in December. US is no different as the PMI manufacturing final for the US is expected to contract at 48.3, the same as the flash estimate for December.

Econoday

[Anonymous]

They are not fit to be pencil pushers aka deskpacitos!!!

[Anonymous]

See? The thing is domestic soldiers are trained for war and if they don’t get war they wreck havoc until they get the war they trained for… To counter that they need to be given a lot of work/daily tasks to do.

They have said to me before, Rafe… I’m exhausted, and didn’t sleep since 2 days now? I was like how much sleep you got, they show me their index finger… only 1 hour in the past 2 days.

They got a lot of veterans now and the next best business they can do since they lovve to travel is “Installing Solar Power on Rooftops Located Anywhere”…

They love to climb heights, trees, go out and work in sweltering heat, or freezing cold, getting their hands dirty and sleeping in tents made on jungle floors… Well… Try Solar…. it makes a lot of profit from the first installation onwards!!

[Anonymous]

In any case putting on the table the fact that terrorism is being defeated why?

And based on my own logic so these two countries are the twins Nostradamus wrote about…

I have said this before why the world needs Russia, and this has not been written anywhere in any magazine or paper etc. It’s based wholly and solely on my own personal observations throughout life, some of which I highlight… I am not patriotic to Russia but simply respect them very much.

When Russia rises then Global Terrorism is defeated.

Do you know when I realized this?

The first time in 2001-2003 when Bush gave a 24-hour warning to Saddam Hussein to leave Iraq or face shock and awe and all of us here on GV were glued to the TV sets watching CNN and then the buildings there started to blow up…

Then there came about the first pics/footage of who did what and they showed that bugger prone firing a gun and pictures of destroyed soviet tanks etc.

I realized the above see-saw as a young kid watching CNN and posting here on GV that the war on terror had not even yet started until a few years after Russia collapsed, and after Russia collapsed then America also collapsed…

And based on my own logic so these two countries are the twins Nostradamus wrote about…

All of this Russia rising is good for America in that it boosts the Small Businesses via the SBA or small business association, which is the reason why Clinton was able to leave a surplus… the SBA is the off shoot of the Russia rising, terrorism getting defeated and the success of SBA programmes > American Imperialism and big brother is watching and big stick diplomacy and big exports from the big badanna company… and eventually American travel…

The only whiplash is that it tends to aggravate mainland terrorism by military people not reaching their own life dreams and to them it makes them feel weak like fish competing against the current. A successful government tends to make them feel left out/angry… so they adopt fascist tactics against their own…

The good thing with this is that Russia can return to communism and other communist countries like China, Cuba and North Korea tend to depend…

…and the benevolence of the American govt works in the world’s favor…

[Belgrade Bobby]

Politics – Russian gas to Europe

Is it really political ??? Or maybe it’s all about money….as always.

How about a New Year’s Prediction – as it is not about the fate of any currency pair and definitely not tradable – so Predict I can 😀

Under the New management , USA overtakes Nord Stream – fix it up and voila…

New USA-Russia Deal ( I’ll give you this, you give me that style –  as always, someone else will be paying for it one way or another) , and there you have enough gas for 3 Europe .

Everyone gets what is wanted , and all is great and peachy….maybe some collateral damage is done here and there , but all in Good faith and peace on Earth….

Dark humour ….sarcastic….maybe. And maybe not….

p.s. my Black Cat agrees on this prediction …

[Anonymous]

December 29, 2024 at 1:58 pm

Como// Perhaps there are other better options such as purchasing electricity via cables from Russia and electricity via transit countries rather than purchasing polluting oil via pipelines running from one country to another and which requires even more infrastructure on all sides.

The cables would also require to be laid and infrastructure built out but then it’s nowhere as costly or as dangerous as running pipelines and pumping the oil across borders. Suppose terrorists blow up the pipelines or decide to tap the pipes to steal the oil? The cables can even be run under the sea but that is a maintenance headache in case of the possibility of the undersea cables being damaged either by natural disaster or geopolitical sabotage. Then there is chance of distribution loss but that in itself can go up to 40% depending on the efficiency of the operations, however if Russia executes such a venture then you can be sure it’s gonna be perfectly done.

[Anonymous]

New President, new EUR/USD forecasts – ING Bank

https://think.ing.com/articles/new-president-new-eur-usd-forecasts/

 

[Anonymous]

Very bad news for Europe

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/what-happens-if-russian-gas-to-europe-via-ukraine-is-fully-cut-off/ar-AA1wncGq

[GVI Forex 2]

Prepare for a chance of a lifetime

A Shining New Era – From Knowledge to

 

[Anonymous]

I am pondering if I should post my FX forecast to cover 2025 and subsequent years to follow.

2025 is a key geopolitical year like I said many years ago.

Also watch (youtube) cOksvi6I6XY.

[Anonymous]

December 29, 2024 at 1:19 am

JP// Perhaps… the work of non-state actors will always have something to do for and against Trump. But all in all like I said many years ago (PF) he is a good guy and knows how to fix America’s debt problem and given enough time he will. He also can be considered America’s savior for the next four years unless Bill Clinton wants to run for office again but then with momma at his side then how will clinton ever lose the fight?

[Mtl JP]

22 days and 16 hours to inauguration
—
and evil schemers are busy

Congress has the power to block Trump from taking office, but lawmakers must act now

by Evan A. Davis and David M. Schulte, opinion contributors – 12/26/24 8:00 AM ET

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Best wishes to You as well

tks

[Anonymous]

Global corporate borrowing climbs to record $8tn in 2024, particularly in France

[SF Monedge]

Nice to hear from you again Como   … Best wishes.

[Anonymous]

$EURUSD Am neither to see much of support there. As I see the Euro is on parity or in parity sooner than most think.

 

Best wishes

 

ING BANK long term

We don’t see too much support ahead of 1.0190/0200 now

https://think.ing.com/opinions/eur-usd-the-stars-align-for-a-downside-break-out/

 

[Mtl JP]

As of my typing …

23 days and 23 hrs to inauguration

and for deep state to try to derail donald from moving into the w/h

[Anonymous]

German president fires starting gun for Feb. 23 election

https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-president-dissolves-parliament-and-confirms-feb-23-election/

 

(LINKS DON’T WORK GVI)

[GVI Forex 2]

I guess it’s say goodbye to the Santa Claus stock rally … all about pre-year end, liquidity, book squaring, position adjustments

[SF Monedge]

JP – December 27, 2024 at 2:12 pm – A smidge difficult to not see that one coming lol.

[GVI Forex 2]

All about year end position adjustments

GBPUSD rebounds after EURGBP tops out below .8340

Stocks lower

[Mtl JP]

Comedy hour and a few last laughs with / at janet

Sen. Kennedy Forces Treasury Sec. To Make SHOCKING Admission About Biden’s Budget

[Author]

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