[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD low 1.0846

Posted pre-data (EURUSD range 1.0906 – 1/0846

1.09 should be tough on top, back below 10840-50 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.08

[SF Monedge]

At first glance the dramatic Boeing Union demand of a 38% wage increase strikes one as quite extreme.  But consider the real inflation rate of ordinary goods and services over time and it might not seem so extremem.

The inflation rate of eggs in November 2020 was 208 compared to 361 in September 2024 with a 39.62% price increase from this time one year ago.

Candy coat inflation all you want to and remind yourself that inflation has been decreasing overall.  Those decreases are not based on prior levels, they are based on historic highs.  My bet is the Union wins but takes around 30%.

[SF Monedge]

Jp- maybe.  Nice call on Eu the other day btw

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10-year yield at 4.335% vs. around 4.23% on the NFP reaction.

[Mtl JP]

and not about prospects of “soft-landing” ?

[SF Monedge]

Today’s reaction is about interest rates and the Fed receiving enough of a scare to almost guarantee continued easing.  So that provides a cushion for stocks and weight on yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 hour gold chart… trading between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Now leave the numbers and trend lines aside for a moment – this is experience and Pattern recognition talking :

–          The Demon made an extended new low

–          Came back Up with the vengeance

–          If it takes out 1.30000 it will fly

–          Not your typical Bear trap, but close enough

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yield back to 4.31… so much for the headline NFP gift

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 1 HOUR CHART – ON THE REBOIND

GER30 following a general risk on rebound today.

Next resistance zone is shown on this chart.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Resistances : 2760.00 , 2775.00 & 2790.00

Supports : 2730.00 , 2705.00 & 2685.00

Pattern suggests an Interim High is in place.

Correction is on cards that can last up to two weeks.

[GVI Forex 2]

UDJOY 1 HOUR CHART – DOUBLE BOTTOM

This is even clearer,

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPOY 1 HOUR CHART – CHART SPEAKS FOR ITSELF

Many of you have seen me post charts with my Amazing Trader (AT) charting algo lines on it so here goes again.

The double bottom on this chart (151.78) is just another example of its uncanny ability to identify key chart points and that is just part of how to use the program.

All I know is I would not have drawn this line on this time Frame but AT did.

If you want to get access to AT, sign up for our Trading Club (free) and then email [email protected]

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI slight miss on downside but prices paid component jumps… dollar higher

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP ONE HOUR

Unwinding of EURGBP creating sort of a tug of war between EURUSD (off its high) and GBPUSD (higher)… EURGBP support zone .8353-73

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI is the next key data event

See our Economic Data Calendar

[SF Monedge]

I don’t think too much should be read into this job report considering the hurricane effect and Boeing strike.  I would not make the mistake of completely discounting it either.  No matter how you slice it there has to be at least a bit of risk off element especially this Friday.

[GVI Forex 2]

Nice when logic prevails as NFP was clearly distorted although it does give the Fed cover to cut ratess next week,
‘
EURUSD failed at 1.09+, support at1.0862 needs to hold to keep the focu away from the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets reacting to big downside miss in NFP…yields dip, dollar dips seems distorted but reaction is what matters.. see if EURUSD can hold above 1.09, if not then upside cools

[GVI Forex 2]

10-YEAR YIELD SNAPSHOTS

 

[Mtl JP]

NFP on deck today
—————–
U.S. 10 Year Treasury
4.291%
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

all I need …

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN
‘
Equities firmer following strong AMZN/INTC results & DXY gains ahead of US NFP

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

Click below to read the full report and listen to the guys doing the podcast.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are entirely in the green alongside modest strength in US futures following post-earning strength in Amazon/Intel & ultimately outmuscling losses in Apple.

Dollar is firmer, CHF sinks after the region’s inflation data and JPY pares recent strength.

Gilts continue to underperform with benchmarks generally softer pre-Payrolls.

Crude is lower as risk-premium returns into the weekend though participants have NFP to navigate first.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Although a month of storms may distort the numbers, a Reuters survey showed nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 113,000 jobs last month after rising by 254,000 in September and jobless rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

I have seen other NFP forecasts of 100,000

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With next week’s U.S. election now dominating thinking, the last two megacap earnings reports of the week appear to have calmed the stock market somewhat and a potentially noisy October payrolls report is up next.

Amazon and Apple got different market receptions to their updates overnight – the remaining two of five “Magnificent Seven” firms reporting this week.

Morning Bid: Amazon Calms the Horses, Payrolls Due

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR – THE MORNING AFTER

GBP crosses recovering (EURGBP, GBPJPY) giving some support to GBPUSD.

EURGBP .8404 was a mini breakout level yesterday so back below it would be needed to shift the focus to .8360.

Downside would be contained if .8400-05 holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

10 YEAR BOND YIELD SNAPSHOTS

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR NFP

Market is biding its time waiting for the US jobs report,

A sharp price in EURGBP yesterday helped give EURUSD a bid and it has backed off today as the cross eased back.

1.09 should be tough on top, back below 10840-50 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.08,

Oct NFP:

A weak jobs # is expected following a sharp rise in Sept BUT NFP will likely be distorted by the hurricanes and strikes,

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 MONTH – NEW MONTH, NEW BALL GAME?

GBP sold off yesterday on a plunge in the bond market (higher yields) and today it seems to be benefiting from the higher yields. So price action suggests month end flows may have been a factor in the ell off.

Whatever the case, it was a straight line move from 1.2999 to 1.2851.

For today 1.2880-85 needs to hold to keep the bid.

On the upside, no resistance other than the day high so treating the move up as a retracement, use FIBOS as possible levels

From our Fibonacci Calculator

[Mtl JP]

Yikes on the other hand
–
Couche-Tard, which from a single outlet in 1980 has become a $53bn company with 16,700 locations.

(psst: pays 1% divident. sofar)

[Mtl JP]

yikes II

japan stocks spooki-n-puking

[Author]

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