[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields (up slightly) not cooperating with the knee jerk dovish reaction.

Powell presser up next.

[Mtl JP]

from cox’s piece:
“The central bank will begin by buying $40 billion in Treasury bills starting Friday. From there, purchases are expected to “remain elevated for a few months” and then likely will be “significantly reduced.”

because no one else will ?

[Mtl JP]

cnbc scream:
“Fed meeting live updates: Markets want Powell to signal multiple rate cuts ahead in 2026”

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed cuts rates by 25bps as expected. Initial reaction more dovish than hawkish becauase only 2 voted no change

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[Mtl JP]

jerome n gang deliver …
25 bps cut

[Mtl JP]

GVI – not as much of an issue.

market is not positioned for a “dovish”
currently players are pricing next cut only at best by mid 2026

[GVI News]

JP and what if it comes across as a hawkish cut?

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 98.928 at 12:52 PM EST
10-yr 4.162% at 12:53 PM EST (it s been lower today already)
—

market would likely move bigly IF it thinks it is seeing a dovish FED today

[GVI Forex 2]

This is an important article to read to interpret the voting breakdown in today’s FOMC decision as there is a rotation of voting members in 2026 in addition to a new Fed Chair in May

How the 2026 FOMC Shake-Up Could Reshape Federal Reserve Policy: Voting Rotation, Rate-Cut Odds, and Powell’s Future

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• • Waiting for the FOMC
  • 7 days in a row pivoting 4200
    Range over this time 4163-4264 and levels to watch post-FOMC

XAUUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Look no further than the drop in US bond yields (last 4.162%) for what is driving some of the price moves, especially in FX (e.g. weaker USDJPY)

Stocks biding their time still hoping for any glimmer of a dovish FOMC spin

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading tip:

When you see USDJPY lead, keep an eye out for cross offsets (e.g. AUDJPY)

[GVI Forex 2]

10 year yield slipping after brief visit earlier above 4.20%. Note some FX correlation, especially USDJPY (below 155.50) and USDCHF (weaker) as well. EURUSD back towards the 1.1650 magnet level but still below it

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Biding its time waiting for the FOMC.
• Similar to US500, those hoping for an end of year rally need 25000-150 holding to keep the current range and such hopes/bets alive.
• In any case, no  matter what happens after the FOMC, it would take a solid break out of 25000-26000 to be significant.

NAS100 DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

BoC stays on hold as expected… USDCAD ticks up but limited move .. watch 1.3860 as pivotal (scroll down to see USDCAD update and chart)

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[Belgrade Bobby]

NASDAQ Index – NDX – 15 min chart

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Large Cap Currently

[Belgrade Bobby]

NASDAQ TRADE HALT REASON NOT AVAILABLE AT 09:31 AM

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Those hoping for a Santa Claus end of year rally need US500 to stay above 6791 to at least keep the current range to 6895 intact.
• In any case, as noted earlier, how markets end the day is more important than how they start or even the initial reaction to the FOMC announcement.

US500 DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Bank of Canada monetary policy decision preview.

[Mtl JP]

Coming up
USDCAD 1.3846 as I type
–
09:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision

[ST London]

UsdJpy

Is there a hidden hand on upside selling at 157?

[ST London]

UsdJpy

Is there a hidden hand on upside selling at 157?

[Mtl JP]

I d be remiss IF I did not link to WSJ’s Nick Timiraos:
–
The Fed Vote You Won’t Hear About

Wednesday’s Fed decision meeting comes with the usual pageantry: the statement, the chair’s press conference, and the quarterly economic projections and interest-rate “dot plot.” But there’s a quiet drama hiding in the December projections that could be revealing.

Four times a year, Fed officials write down where they think rates should be at the end of the next few years under their base-case economic outlook and “appropriate” monetary policy. But December is different. It’s the only meeting where they also tell you what they thought was appropriate policy for the year that just ended.

fwiw

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD UPDATE

• Market on hold waiting for the BoC (unchanged expected) rate decision
• 2 levels stand out: 1.3800 and 1.3860
• Of the two, 1.3800 is most important as there is little below it until 1.3715. 1.3823 stands in the way of 1.3800.
• On the upside, to build momentum off the low, 1.3823 needs to hold followed by a 1.3869 break. However, key levels are not until above 1.3950 so it would take a surprise to see it challenged.

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART

 

[Mtl JP]

cnbc f/page this morn:
–
Trump to start final Fed chair interviews beginning with Kevin Warsh
Hassett likely next Fed chair, but most think Trump should nominate someone else, CNBC Fed survey shows
Treasury yields inch higher as Fed rate cut decision comes into focus
Stock futures are little changed as investors await Fed decision

Jeff Cox:
The Fed decision is expected to feature a rate cut and a lot more. Here’s what to expect
The central bank is poised to deliver its third straight interest rate cut Wednesday, while firing a warning shot about what’s ahead.

[Mtl JP]

According to Howard Schneider at Reuters:

Fed expected to cut rates, but may signal a coming pause

Policymakers are grappling with gaps in economic data caused by the recent government shutdown and working through competing views about the risks facing the economy.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers

]
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[GVI News]

10 year last 4.207%… suggests 4.20% will be pivotal as a dovish/hawkish indicator pist-FOMC

[GVI News]

10 year last 4.207%… suggests 4.20% will be pivotal as a dovish/hawkish indicator pist-FOMC

[Author]

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