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USDJPY UPDATE
- On the defensive after hitting a wall at 155.98, helped by weaker US CPI and dip in bond yields and ahead of the expected BoJ rate hike on Friday.
- This can be seen as a glass half empty or half full depending on whether the move off 155.98 is treated as a retracement and start of a fresh run lower..
- In any case, limited range while within 155-156 awaiting the BoJ where 155.50 will be pivotal (focus on 155 while below, 156 while above) although upside limited unless 156.16 is broken.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
EURUSD struggling to stay above 1.1750
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Stocks higher after US CPI
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Philly Fed miss’
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CPI softer than expected (talk of distortions?)
(Right click on image to open a full screen in a new tab)ECB unchanged as expected. EURUSD up (also after growth projections revised up for 2026 inflation in 2025
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UK Stocks Flat After BoE Decision
London’s FTSE 100 cut early gains to trade around the flatline on Thursday, after the Bank of England cut the bank rate by 25 basis points at its final meeting of the year, as expected. but reiterated their guidance for a “gradual” pace of further easing.
Markets are now pricing in about 62 points of easing from the central bank by the end of next year
DAX Edges Higher Ahead Of ECB Interest Rate Announcement
BRUSSELS (dpa-AFX) – Germany’s benchmark stock index DAX moved higher on Thursday in largely cautious trades as investors looked ahead to the monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, and the inflation data, and personal consumption expenditure report from the U.S.
The BoE is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 7 am ET, while the ECB’s decision is due at 8:15 am ET.
The BoE is expected to lower interest rate by 25 basis points, while the ECB is widely seen holding rates steady.
The benchmark DAX was up 79.90 points or 0.33% at 24,035.61 about a quarter past noon.
Is Bitcoin Carnage Tomorrow? ‘Quad Witch’ Phenomenon
“Quad witching,” one of the most structurally risky days on the calendar, is approaching for Bitcoin. Neither superstition nor X numerology apply here. The price movement of Bitcoin has already been significantly impacted by this recurrent, derivatives-driven event this year.
Bitcoin’s time coming
Four times a year, in March, June, September and December, stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options and index options all expire simultaneously. This phenomenon is known as quad witching. This corresponds with large BTC options and futures expiries in the cryptocurrency space.
Take a look at the figures. Bitcoin saw a 16.6% decline in March. It dropped an additional 8.5% in June. September’s percentage was 7.9%. The same timing, but different market conditions. Every sell-off was in close alignment with quad witching expiries. That is a forced resolution of positioning, not a coincidence.
GBPUSD pops on the 5-4 split. Sill below 1.34
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Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading firmer in cautious trading ahead to a slew of US data along with BOE (rate cut) and ECB (unchanged) rate decisions.
- EURUSD is down after coming within a hair of printing 1.1750 (high 1.17497) for the 6th day in a row, Support is at Wed’s 1.1702 low
- USDJPY has extended its rebound towards 156 despite expectations of a BoJ rate hike on Friday. Key resistance is at 156.16
- GBPUSD, the King if Whipsaw this week, is trading lower ahead of the BoE within a 1.33-1.34 range. Support starts at Wed’s 1.3311
- US stocks are trading up after yesterday’s selloff. How equities end the day is more important than how they start out.
- US bond yields ate lower.
Trump speech: No surprise, non event. Focus now shifts to an event filled day.
Click below for detailed previews
Newsquawk US Market Wrap
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