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US jobs report beat… NFP beat, jobless rate slkips, waqges rise… Benchmark revisions so far ignored
USD up, yieldsw up, stocks holding firm
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Brent Crude Oil Tops $70
Brent crude oil futures rose more than 2% to above $70 per barrel on Wednesday, approaching the highest since September, on renewed Middle East tensions.
Capping further gains, however, was a US industry report showing a sharp build in stockpiles, with inventories rising by 13.4 million barrels last week
Investors will also turn to OPEC’s monthly market outlook later today, followed on Thursday by an IEA assessment that has warned supply is set to outpace demand, resulting in a sizable surplus this year.
CAD slips (USDCAD up) on this headline. As always with President Trump, actions speak louder than words or headlines
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CAD slips (USDCAD up) on this headline. As always with President Trump, actions speak louder than words or headlines
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DAX Extends Losses
With corporate earnings in the spotlight, the DAX extended losses on Wednesday. Anxiety ahead of the job market update from the U.S. which is expected to be decisive for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy lingered.
The DAX benchmark that tracks the performance of the 40 largest companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is currently trading 0.33 percent lower at 24,903.30, versus the previous close of 24,985.82. The day’s trading ranged between a high of 25,001.16 and a low of 24,849.77. The index had touched an all-time high of 25,507.79 on January 13.
In the 40-scrip index, only 13 scrips are trading in the overnight green zone.
The Dollar Is Drifting Back Down Toward Multiyear Lows
The dollar is falling back toward multiyear lows reached late last month.
On Jan. 27, the WSJ Dollar Index hit the lowest since April 2022, after President Trump said he wasn’t concerned about declines in the currency.
It rebounded in the following days, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the U.S.’s longstanding strong-dollar policy and Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair.
Since late last week it has sold off again, notably against the Japanese yen after a thumping election victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Early Wednesday, the Dollar Index traded at 96.49
Newsquawk Pre-Market Movers
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Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is trading weaker, led again by the JPY (although off its highs) as attention looks ahead to the release of the delayed US January jobs report. US bond yields continue to slip, which has bern weighing on the USD so watch Treasuries following the data.
- Recent softer employment related data along with comments from US officials on a weaker job market suggest traders seea greater risk of a miss than a beat in NFP. Surprise, therefore, would be a beat or even an as consensus NFP. . In addition attention will be on benchmark revisions.
- Note, EURUSD has pivoted 1.19 for the third day in a row, currently above it but bouncing again off 1.1926 for a double top.
ETHUSD
Ethereum has repeatedly failed to reclaim the $2,150 resistance today, which continues to act as the dominant supply zone for the week
Feels like buyers are cautious rather than aggressive especially adding USD volatility in play. While etheruem is still holding above the $2,000 psychological level, the price action has flattened which signals indecision and a potential volatility expansion ahead. Whether it will go up or down is not for me to say. But history says there’s still more room for further down.
Overall, Ethereum remains bound to this range, with the next directional move weighing on whether $2,000 holds or fails.
USDJPY UPDATE:
- JPY outperforming, both vs. the USD and on its ctosses.
- Break of 154.55 leaves little on charts until 152.09-68 so use the latest low (154.05) as a key sup[port.
- 154.55+ is what is needed to postpone the risk and shift it back to 155….. otherwise, risk stays on downside.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
Newsquawk US Market Wrap Part 1
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Newsquawk US Market Wrap Part 2
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