USD Index, Crude Oil, and Stocks
Gold Prices Today
I’ve been watching the USD Index closely, and for me the key is the up-sloping trend line that more or less cuts through Thursday’s low. At the same time, the 100 resistance level stands out. What caught my attention is that the USD Index didn’t rally alongside crude oil to the same extent, which is something I can’t ignore in this environment.
Because of that, I’m keeping a close eye on gold. From where I sit, its moving averages are starting to turn back up, and that usually signals something building beneath the surface. I’m also watching Thursday’s settlement closely, as I think that will give a clearer directional cue.
Gold Prices Today
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 hour chart (blue line = 50 period mva)
Crude Oil
On crude oil, I’m seeing a notable shift. Trading interest, in my view, has clearly moved from Brent to WTI. At the same time, the futures curve is telling its own story. We’re seeing strong backwardation, where the front month is rallying much faster than the back months. What really stands out to me is that open interest in the back months is actually rising despite that underperformance. To me, that suggests the market is heavily positioned short in the front month.
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There was also something interesting on Thursday that I don’t think many are paying attention to. I noticed a small divergence where WTI and stocks showed a negative correlation. At the same time, the VIX dropped back below 30. Personally, I’m not convinced that low VIX reading is stable—I think it may simply reflect an overcrowded short volatility trade, especially after what built up earlier in the week.
Equities
As for equities, I still think there’s one more leg lower coming. In my view, the target is the gap in the June futures. Thursday’s settle was 6618.5, and the gap sits down at 6361.75. I expect we move into that zone before what I would describe as a face-ripping rally that could extend toward 7380. For the Nasdaq June futures, I’m focused on 22,500 as a must-hold level.
Looking at the broader macro picture, I found Friday’s NFP release interesting. On the surface, it looked bullish, but when I step back, I see that 2025 has essentially produced zero job growth. What stands out to me even more is how AI continues to impact employment. We’re seeing job cuts across major companies, tens of thousands in tech and logistics, and that trend doesn’t look like it’s slowing.
The job gains we are seeing are concentrated in healthcare and construction. Construction in particular doesn’t surprise me, even though the housing market feels locked due to high mortgage rates. Government job losses also add another layer to the overall picture.
On the negative side, I can’t ignore bond yields. The 10-year sitting around 4.31%, with a recent high of 4.44%, creates real pressure. When I think about U.S. debt, where roughly a trillion dollars is already going toward servicing existing obligations, and then layer in massive proposed spending, it becomes a serious concern.
That said, I do see a longer-term positive, and that’s inflation—at least from an asset price perspective. It’s not something most people celebrate, but in my experience, inflation eventually finds its way into higher asset prices and can even support housing over time.
The Savvy Trader ius a long time and highly respected member of the Global-View community.
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