[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD vs BTCUSD (4 HOUR)

XAUUSD (GOLD) on the defensive while below 4450 (former key support) and  needs to hold above 4415 for a higher low and 4396 to prevent putting 4310 on the map.

Back above 4450 is needed to shift its tone, above 4472 to put 4500 back in play.

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) consolidating between 77K and 80K with key levels outside of it (76923, 76604 and 75491/81455

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Month end?

USD slipped in what appeared to be month end flows weighing on the currency. For EURUSD to negate Friday’;s breakdown, 1.1635+ would be needed (similar level in GBPUSD would be 1.3570)

US500 remains defensive below 7700 but downside contained while above 7640-50

Crude oil backing off and consolidating after building on the opening gap higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR: More defensive

Trend: Up retracing

Momentum: Consolidating with a downward tilt

Feeling the effects of Friday’s whipsaw as well and trading more defensive while below 7700.

For down momentum to build off the whipsaw, 7740-50 (on this CFD chart) would need to be broken.

Otherwise, call it consolidation.

=

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Month end

Trend: Up stalled

Momentum: Consolidating with a downward tilt

Consolidating so far in a tight range at month end after Friday’s whipsaw where  a move below 29221 and then 29K would be needed for down momentum to build.

Otherwise, consolidation while within 29-30K.

[Adam Global]

USDCHF is consolidating inside the 0.8075-0.8095 narrow range today, after jumping on Friday due to Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks. Interestingly, the pair has been on an ascending route since August 20, when it found support at 0.7949.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD 4 HOUR: Call it consolidation?

Trend:UP

Momenmtum: Short-term down but consolidating

Bounce off 76907 not going far enough to negate a retracement risk with a pause below 79821.

On the downside, call it consolidation unless 75484-76599 is taken out, which would open a void on the downside.

 

[Mtl JP]

What does he know that the market doesn’t ?

Bank of England chief warns new AI models threaten global financial stability – cnbc

… “The growing threat posed by advanced artificial intelligence models could trigger a disorderly correction in global financial markets, according to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

In a two-page letter published Monday to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Bailey said the emergence of so-called “frontier AI models” is showing “increasingly sophisticated autonomy and problem-solving abilities, as well as threat capabilities.” …/.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar has backed off a touch to start the week with US bond yields doing the same.

This has the dollar still firm but consolidating with the JPY, followed by the EUR ands CHF outperforming while the AUD is the only currency trading (slightly) weaker.

Note this .is not a typical month end with UK markets closed for a holiday.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening Week Update: Oil gaps higher, stocks slip, USD consolidating

[Adam Global]

US100 index (cash) is consolidating near 29,500 today, after edging 📈higher on both Wednesday and Thursday and climbing above the 20- and 50-period SMAs

[Adam Global]

JP225 is stabilising near 66,300 after retreating from multi-week highs around 69,614. Price action remains entangled between the 20- and 50-day SMAs, pointing to consolidation, while the medium-term📈 uptrend stays intact.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Consolidating ahead of Warsh speech

Trend: UP      Momentum: Consolidating

So far unable to shake a focus from 4600 as it trades in a 4565-4617 range, one that is too tight to last too long. On the upside, a move back above 4643 would be needed to break down momentum.’ On the downside, look for 4650-65 to be the obstacle to 4500-20.

[Adam Global]

USDJPY consolidation continues, steadily reclaiming📈 lost ground from the recent US bond intervention. Although weak positive momentum holds a footing near 159.00, the 20-day EMA and the nearby resistance at 159.50 continue to cap upside pressure, suggesting 📉downside risk persists.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Still on the defensive

Trend: UP      Momentum: Short-term down

On the defensive but so far trading above yesterday’s 4583 low, which needs to hold to turn this into consolidation rather than a further retracement. In this regard, no key levels to note within 4500-4600 other than 4583 and 4519 (23.6%). Resistance starts at 4643.

[Mtl JP]

a betting opportunity on the USD

some say it has to go higher before going lower

others see the dollar coming under pressure soon

Gaming

– fiscal consolidation plan from Bessent

– Warsh’s Jackson Hole yakkings

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Waiting for Nvidia

Trend: Longer-term consolidating

Momentum: Short-term down slowed

Trying to build on its higher low (28944) that would need to take out 29450 and then 29600-670  (on this CFD chart) to shift the focus back to 30K.

Otherwise, wait is on for Nvidia earnings after the close and likely to hold a bid while aboive 29K trades.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Waiting for Nvidia

Trend: Longer-term consolidating

Momentum: Short-term down slowed

Trying to build on its higher low (28944) that would need to take out 29450 and then 29600-670  (on this CFD chart) to shift the focus back to 30K.

Otherwise, wait is on for Nvidia earnings after the close and likely to hold a bid while aboive 29K trades.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR: Watching 7700

Trend: Long term up

Momentum: Consolidating

Trying to build on a higher low that would need to take out 7700 and thgen 7727-47 to shift the focus the other way.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Too tight to last

Trend: UP

Momentum: Consolidating

Consolidating within 1.3618-56, a range too tight to last but with a lower high making the downside more vulnerable, at least as long as the top end holds.

Fallback support is at 1.3589, which needs to hold to keep thoughts away from 1.3500-20.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD vs. BTCUSD

Both in uptrends with highs (4697 and 81230) showing potential for a pause (while below 4650 and 80K) but only moves through 4594 and/or 75497 would confirm. Otherwise, just consolidating.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR:  Watch 7700

Trend: Long term up  Momentum: Short-term down but consolidating

What caught my eye is the pause just below 7700, which capped the upside although it would take a move above 7727 (on this CFD chart) to break down momentum. On the downside, move still contained while above 7604, the low at 7640 protecting it.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: 29K still pivotal

Trend: Longer-term consolidating   Momentum: Short-term down slowed

Support below 29K and a higher low giving hope to the bull side as they try to hang in ahead of Nvidia earnings tomorrow. However, it has not gone far enough to shake a focus from 29K although downside momentum is cooled while above 28944 On the upside, would need to take out 29450 (on this CFD chart) to put bulls back in control;.

[Adam Global]

GER40 index (cash) is consolidating in the 26,070-26,170 arec today, following Friday’s📈 rebound and after finding support at 25,910 on Thursday. Interestingly, the index remains within striking distance of its all-time high of 26,580.

[Mtl JP]

AT TOP OF THE HOUR
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to speak at 1 p.m.
He will announce new sanctions against Iran, described by the administration as an “economic D-Day.”

He has argued that if the U.S. achieves total financial isolation of Tehran, it would reduce the necessity for a return to major combat operations.

[Adam Global]

BTCUSD is taking a breather after last week’s 22% 📈rally pushed prices to a three-month high near 79,500. The short-term uptrend is pausing near 77,000, with price action consolidating within a📉 downward-sloping regression channe

[Mtl JP]

gaming opportunity(ies) loom

according to christia freeland : “aluminum is electricity in solid form” – on bloomberg

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY: Mission accomplished?

Trend: UP        Momentum: UP

As noted yesterday, (GBPUSD) needing to establish above 1.3557 and make a solid break of 1.3571 to put 1.3658 on the map as a target.

High today: 1.3659 so is it mission accomplished? Misssion accomplished while the high stays intact but only back below 1.3550-60 would shift the risk, below 1.3519 to negate it.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR –Saved by the bonds

Trend: Hope for an uptrend stalled

Momentum: Consolidation while within 29K-30K

NAS100 so far holding off the downside with a pause above 29110, helped by the Treasury action ion long term bonds.

On the upside, back above 28670 and the trendline are needed to shift focus back to 30K.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Lifeline

Trend: Up but consolidating/retracing

Momentum: Stalled, short-term down

Getting a lifeline from the dip in U.S. bond yields but for risk to shift back to the upside, a solid move above 7740-50 would be needed.

To keep this as consolidation rather than a further retracement, 7680 (low) needs to hold.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR – Holding above support

Trend: So far a retracement

Momentum: Consolidation if within 29-30K

NAS100 getting a reprieve as well but the spike (20670) and quick retreat leaves it dependent on 29110-330 holding to keep the downside in check with a bid while above the upper end of the support band.